Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[floridasun78]

one of miami weatherman saying he downgrading gfs he say less rain next week after he was saying on wed that could be rainy

[cycloneye]

NOGAPS is more bullish at the 18z run.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2009060418

[srainhoutx]

Too early folks. ITCZ is suppressed and an MJO pulse headed into the "Basin". Maybe some rain for FL and the Bahamas

[cycloneye]

00z NAM

NAM at 84 hours shows the low a little more west than GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Vortex]

It's becoming apparent that the western carribean will become a focal point for very unsettled weather by late this weekend. In fact, several of the short-medium range models now develop a closed low in this area(vicinity of Nicaragua/Honduras) and move the system generally northward and slow. At this point the GFS is the strongest depicting a minimal hurricane in the NW carribean for the last few runs. Nogaps has joined the (development camp) as of todays's runs closing off low pressure in the NW carribean along with EC,Canadian, and Nam to name a few(albeit much weaker at present than the GFS). The overnight runs should prove interesting to see if the trends continue...More later.


00z NAm just out and places a developing system south of western Cuba with a decent upper air-environment to work with..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[ROCK]

Too early folks. ITCZ is suppressed and an MJO pulse headed into the "Basin". Maybe some rain for FL and the Bahamas

I have to agree....looking at the shear maps its going to hard for anything to stack in that environment.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The low level vorticity per 0Z GFS loop seems to originate near the Colombia/Panama border and track over Central America through 72 hours.

Implying, it would seem, that the GFS sees this as a system with at least some tropical origins.

Also, eyeballing IR imagery, not at all fool proof at night, if I had to guess where the best vorticity is now, it is somewhat West of where the GFS has it at tau = 6 hours, more South of Nicaragua than Panama.

[boca]

The low level vorticity per 0Z GFS loop seems to originate near the Colombia/Panama border and track over Central America through 72 hours.

Implying, it would seem, that the GFS sees this as a system with at least some tropical origins.

Also, eyeballing IR imagery, not at all fool proof at night, if I had to guess where the best vorticity is now, it is somewhat West of where the GFS has it at tau = 6 hours, more South of Nicaragua than Panama.

Isn't that vorticity moving west into the E Pacific judging by the sat pic?

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the GFS is right at Hour 108, weak and somewhat divergent flow is present over the low level disturbance.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Isn't that vorticity moving west into the E Pacific judging by the sat pic?

If the low level vort max is co-located with the heaviest storms, why yes, it would appear that way, and it wouldn't surprise me greatly if GFS was ballpark correct, a TC developing near Central America, but off on the details as to timing and basin.


And, of course, not completely impossible, especially this time of year, for a Pacific feature to cross back into the Gulf or Caribbean.


I well remember Tropical Storm Allison, a less than purely tropical system that resulted from an upper low pulling up a tropical wave that had already crossed into the Pacific.


I have no idea what will happen, like a college basketball game separated by 3 points with 30 seconds to go, or a race on a road course, 2 laps to go, the leader questionable on gas.

Makes it interesting.

[cycloneye]

Once it gets away from Nicaragua,it starts to bomb.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

[boca]

I can't believe I'm saying this but with that vorticity moving west I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS develops a system in the E Pacific and steals energy from the Caribbean. This is just a guess But maybe the GFS is in the wrong basin like Ed eluded too.

[cycloneye]

998 mbs just south of Central Cuba at 168 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

It ends in Nova Scotia.See loop below.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

If the GFS is right then a 200 mile miss to the SE of Miami at 192hrs.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the GFS is right then a 200 mile miss to the SE of Miami at 192hrs.

Or, if a cyclone does form, anywhere from New Orleans to the Northern Lesser Antilles.


The GFS has persistence on its side, however.


bed time, not best display, but I see a blob of rain, but no obvious TC, South of Cuba on the Canadian

[Evil Jeremy]

I think the GFS is still drunk from the season-start party.

[wxman57]

I think the GFS is still drunk from the season-start party.

Good chance of that, as there's no weather system down there now. Let's hope so, anyway.

[ronjon]

00Z Euro develops a w caribbean system but much slower and weaker. Looks like more ridging in Euro and NOGAPs which keeps the system moving more northerly instead of the sharp right hand turn of the GFS.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

06z GFS is more slower with the Caribbean system in this run as it tracks northward.

At 168 hours is still South of Cuba.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml