Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[Duddy]

Hi guys! And hello Hurricane Season '09!

Let's get this train started.

[ronjon]

00Z Euro develops this wave and brings it near the windward islands in 10 days.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009081000!!/

[ronjon]

06Z GFS brings this system into WPB as a hurricane in 300 hrs.

[ronjon]

Pretty impressive trio. This system is just about to emerge off the coast.

[KWT]

Yep three areas that could eventually develop. I'd bet at least 2 out of 3 of those will develop in the next 7-10 days.

[cyclonic chronic]

gfs at 168 hrs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

we havent had any atl. storms all year. now watch in a week or two we'll be tracking 3 or 4 systems at once!! this year seems to be an all or nothing season

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS brings this system into WPB as a hurricane in 300 hrs.

Thats two runs now into Southern FL. But we are 300 hours out.......plenty of time for things to change with this GFS mega-storm.

We can, however, note that the synoptics that are setting up over the next 10-14 days are going to allow systems to head west in the Atlantic. Let's just hope they don't go too far west or get too strong.

Also this wave appears the type that NHC will give a code orange to while it is on Africa (before it has moved over water). I can see that coming....

[Frank2]

Thats two runs now into Southern FL. But we are 300 hours out.......plenty of time for things to change with this GFS mega-storm.

That's for sure - we can only look at what happened with Hurricane Ike (2008) - for days the models agreed that it'd be a South Florida issue...

And of course the NWS considers the 300-Hour GFS about as much ficition as a modern novel, so...

P.S. Lettuce not forget that we are now in an El Nino pattern, so shear is going to be an issue for any system that heads westward...

[Sanibel]

My guess is what will happen is the MJO will shift on in a week and juice up those waves that are already turning and send a flurry of hurricanes out in the Atlantic.

[Derek Ortt]

I am taking a wait and see approach toward this wave

It is really only the GFS that shows significant development of this feature. The other models are TD or even just an area of low-pressure. Given the GFS taking over for the CMC in producing phantoms this season, I'd be a bit more careful about expecting development

[Blown Away]

Everybody gets whacked on this run!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

I am taking a wait and see approach toward this wave

It is really only the GFS that shows significant development of this feature. The other models are TD or even just an area of low-pressure. Given the GFS taking over for the CMC in producing phantoms this season, I'd be a bit more careful about expecting development

I agree a wait and see approach is prudent. But the GFS is showing significant development even in the short-term run after run. Latest 12Z run shows development into a strong TS when it is just off Africa.

Here we are just 84 hours from now:


So I think it is one to watch and development appears likely.

[Blown Away]

Gator, is the wave the GFS has coming near Florida as a cane in like 300 hours the system rate behind 99L?

[Sanibel]

If you compute these African disturbances getting their 'sails' up into the steering winds so early off of Cape Verde it could bode for a more Florida-bound track from the previous long-tracker pattern.

[Derek Ortt]

I want to see a model NOT NAMED GFS predict development before becoming excited

GFS has been the CMC from the last 3 seasons this year

[eastcoastFL]

Come on guys this thing is 2 weeks away. I don't even think that there should be models for 300 hours available to the public. It just makes people worry about possibly nothing.

[Sanibel]

GFS busts so often that I tend to ignore it until something is obviously forming.

It did nail a wave over Africa well in advance a year or two ago.

[cycloneye]

I want to see a model NOT NAMED GFS predict development before becoming excited

GFS has been the CMC from the last 3 seasons this year

00z ECMWF

[KWT]

GFS can be too agressive with these lows though Gatorcane I think thats why Derek wants to see other model support. To be fair though the 0z ECM also did suggest some sort of development so its not on its own by any means...and its not named GFS either

99L will probably prove a good shield for any wave coming out to the south-east of it from the SAL I'd imagine?

[gatorcane]

Boy is the GFS aggressive with this thing run after run. Here we are at 144 hours with this monster tracking west. Despite how deep it is the ridge is so strong to the north it continues to move west. Looks like one of those situations where it is pumping up the ridge maybe?

:uarrow: Gator, is the wave the GFS has coming near Florida as a cane in like 300 hours the system rate behind 99L?

I do believe its the one behind 99L still over Africa.

I also notice 99L is pretty far west in this run, GFS is backing down on the weakness as I thought it would --- ECMWF shows zonal flow across the Atlantic for the next 7-10 days or so. Run after run ECMWF keeps H5 ridging in place across much of the Atlantic.