Tropical wave Ex Ana

[lrak]

Has an ULL and an invest ever merged, that ULL is UUge?

[Dean4Storms]

The area of deep convection between Cuba and the Caymans has my attention tonight!

[srainhoutx]

Convection flaring up only because its running into a ULL, granted a weakening ULL but its still causing it to flare.

An interaction with just such an upper low is what helped 91L to develop into Claudette on Saturday night. The setup is nearly identical now, and what's left of Ana looks just like 91L did prior to developing. Better watch out in the eastern Gulf tomorrow night/Thursday. I'd give it at least a 30-40% shot of redevelopment now. More if it stays west of Florida.

Quite surprised it's not an invest.

Watching carefully the "cool front" progression. There in lies the 'path'. Worth watching.

[KWT]

Its a really messy looking pattern out there, ULL moving just a shade south of west at the moment and the remains of Ana pretty much running into the ULL. Will be interesting to see how this evolves, and what part of the wave may redevelop.

[lonelymike]

Convection flaring up only because its running into a ULL, granted a weakening ULL but its still causing it to flare.

An interaction with just such an upper low is what helped 91L to develop into Claudette on Saturday night. The setup is nearly identical now, and what's left of Ana looks just like 91L did prior to developing. Better watch out in the eastern Gulf tomorrow night/Thursday. I'd give it at least a 30-40% shot of redevelopment now. More if it stays west of Florida.

Quite surprised it's not an invest.

Interesting. You don't think it could become a hurricane again do you?

[lrak]

Why is this buoy reading 29.75 in. ?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Its right underneath the ULL?

Ummm...from 29.75 to 29.85 that was strange.

That thing looks like a black hole you would see on TV sucking in all thats around it.

[wxman57]

Convection flaring up only because its running into a ULL, granted a weakening ULL but its still causing it to flare.

An interaction with just such an upper low is what helped 91L to develop into Claudette on Saturday night. The setup is nearly identical now, and what's left of Ana looks just like 91L did prior to developing. Better watch out in the eastern Gulf tomorrow night/Thursday. I'd give it at least a 30-40% shot of redevelopment now. More if it stays west of Florida.

Quite surprised it's not an invest.

Interesting. You don't think it could become a hurricane again do you?

Ana wasn't a hurricane before, but we have seen how quickly systems can intensify in the Gulf. I'm certainly not forecasting a hurricane, but if it becomes a TS with 12-24 hours over water, then I would see nothing to stop intensification until landfall.

[Sanibel]

No circulation visible on Key West long range radar yet.

[attallaman]

Wxman57:

If the remnants of Ana do regenerate into something tropical and enter the GOM would it follow a path similar to Claudette or is there anything in the upper atmosphere that would steer a regenerated Ana further to the W should the system regenerate in the GOM? My area had lots of rain today which I guess was influenced by the remnants of Claudette.

[frederic79]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is going to sound extreme but it does a good job illustrating a point of how quickly things can change in the tropics. Remember the wave that eventually became Katrina? Regarding TD 10, the low-level circulation gradually weakened while continuing westward, and it eventually dissipated on 21 August in the vicinity of Cuba. Meanwhile, a middle tropospheric circulation originating from Tropical Depression Ten lagged behind and passed north of the Leeward Islands on 18-19 August. A tropical wave, which departed the west coast of Africa on 11 August, moved through the Leeward Islands and merged with the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten on 19 August and produced a large area of showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico. This activity continued to move slowly northwestward, passing north of Hispaniola and then consolidating just east of the Turks and Caicos during the afternoon of 22 August. Dvorak satellite classifications from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) began at 1800 UTC that day.* *NHC Archives
You know the rest. I want to point out that I remember tracking the remnants of TD10 and thinking how odd it would be for redevelopment to occur from a barely detectible low. It happened when a number of conditions coincided. That said, while I don't expect development from the remnants of Ana I do agree they must be monitored at this point.

[LaBreeze]

I believe that Ana has been dancing faster than the music.

[lrak]

So I take it that the ULL is becoming a tropical system? Which spin is the important one? Below the western tip of Cuba, or the blob off the SE coast of Florida? All the buoys show high pressure and no wind.

[HouTXmetro]

The GOM is a sheared mess.... with that ULL churning I don't see how anything can develop.

[KWT]

There is still some convection present just south of Cuba near the Isle of Youth however as I thought the ULL has pretty much destroyed this system. Still can't rule it out as the ULL finally moves out of the way but I'm not sure there is anything left to re-develop to be honest!

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 191137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tailgater]

The area WSW of Key West is starting to get my attention this morning.


just a hunch no scientific substance to it at all

[KatDaddy]

Joe B is alluding to some in the GOM W of ANA. He stated there is something going on to the W of ANA and will update later.

[KWT]

Probably to do with the convection that is in the BoC I'd guess?
Anyway not really a lot left to develo with Ana though there is some sort of circulation to the north of Cuba.

[lrak]

tailgater, I think thats about the only thing I can see thats left. Maybe the BOC...I just want a rain shower, not even asking for a thunderstorm, is that too much?

[N2Storms]

I think Ana no longer has a heart beat...she fought a good fight but it looks like she has given up the ghost