Elsewhere in the tropics
Early next week, we should be alert for tropical storm development along an old frontal zone stretching from the Florida Keys across the Florida Peninsula to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. The NOGAPS model predicts development could occur on the Gulf side of Florida, and the GFS model forecasts that development is more likely on the east side of Florida.
Jeff Masters
North of Bahamas
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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Re: SE Gulf/ Bahamas area
982
AGXX40 KNHC 111842
MIMATS
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON ON THE N SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM
SARASOTA...FL TO NEAR WESTERN CUBA THAT IS EATING INTO MEAN
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED
GENERALLY N OF 28N AND E OF 90W OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF IN THE MEAN...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW OVER TX. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS AGREE
ON LIFTING SOME OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN GULF TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...STEERED
NORTHWARD BY MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING
DEEP-LAYERED LOW OVER TX AND THE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SE
GULF. MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE NE GULF AND RIDGING OVER THE SE
GULF SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYERED
LOW OVER TX SHOULD DRIFT NE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW TURNS
NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE PLENTIFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EASTWARD IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CMC IS FASTER THAN THAN THE
OTHER MODELS MOVING THE TX LOW NE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO ITS SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT SURGING S OF THE LOW INTO THE NW GULF ON
MON/TUE...BUT THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER N WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER E TX. A MODEL CONSENSUS REPRESENTED BY A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST.
SW N ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH CAN BE FOUND THIS MORNING FROM NEAR
31N73W TO CAPE CANAVERAL...FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A
1020 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEMS NEAR 29N64W W ALONG 28W TO 29W TO 75W
AND THEN TURNING SW INTO THE STRAITS OF FL. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN DROP SE OFF THE NE FL COAST AS IT
ROUNDS THE HIGH PRES IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL TRANSITION TO A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT IS DRAGGED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA AND THE MODELS AGREE UPON A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED
ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OFF THE NE FL COAST BY SUN NIGHT.
THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FORECAST
THAT TAKES THE SURFACE WAVE FROM OFF N FL ON A SE TRACK ALONG
THE STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS IT FINALLY MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
WEAKEN OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHIFTS E
AND THEN NE ON TUE. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT HAD PERSISTED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS N OF
PUERTO RICO SHOULD BE STEERED NW ALONG THE SW SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES SYSTEM E OF THE AREA AND INTO THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGHING STRETCHED ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC...PUSHING ITS REMNANTS NE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SAT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE TO 20 KT IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND LIE E OF THE WAVE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL N ATLC WEAKENS. STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHERE SE FLOW STEERED BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BRING
WINDS TO 20 KT OVER FAR WESTERN WATERS SAT THROUGH MON. TUE
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A DAY OF WINDS UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL N ATLC...WEAK TRADES OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 TO
7 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC
ZONE. LONG PERIOD E SWELL FROM HURRICANE FRED SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY NORTH SWELL ON MONDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS A FOOT OR
TWO AS IT TRAVELS SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONE. FINALLY...MOST OF THE
MODELS CARRY THE REMNANTS OF FRED EASTWARD TOWARD 45W TO 50 W ON
TUE...WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATITUDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS THE 20 KT REMNANT LOW AT
23N49W WED MORNING. HOWEVER...WHAT IS LEFT OF FRED WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS TO ITS N BY MON AND THE
EASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE REMNANT LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT.
WARNINGS
ATLC...
.NONE.
CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE
$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK
AGXX40 KNHC 111842
MIMATS
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS AFTERNOON ON THE N SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM
SARASOTA...FL TO NEAR WESTERN CUBA THAT IS EATING INTO MEAN
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED
GENERALLY N OF 28N AND E OF 90W OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF IN THE MEAN...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW OVER TX. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS AGREE
ON LIFTING SOME OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN GULF TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...STEERED
NORTHWARD BY MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING
DEEP-LAYERED LOW OVER TX AND THE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SE
GULF. MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE NE GULF AND RIDGING OVER THE SE
GULF SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYERED
LOW OVER TX SHOULD DRIFT NE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW TURNS
NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE PLENTIFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EASTWARD IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CMC IS FASTER THAN THAN THE
OTHER MODELS MOVING THE TX LOW NE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO ITS SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT SURGING S OF THE LOW INTO THE NW GULF ON
MON/TUE...BUT THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER N WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER E TX. A MODEL CONSENSUS REPRESENTED BY A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST.
SW N ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH CAN BE FOUND THIS MORNING FROM NEAR
31N73W TO CAPE CANAVERAL...FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A
1020 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEMS NEAR 29N64W W ALONG 28W TO 29W TO 75W
AND THEN TURNING SW INTO THE STRAITS OF FL. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN DROP SE OFF THE NE FL COAST AS IT
ROUNDS THE HIGH PRES IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL TRANSITION TO A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT IS DRAGGED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA AND THE MODELS AGREE UPON A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED
ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OFF THE NE FL COAST BY SUN NIGHT.
THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FORECAST
THAT TAKES THE SURFACE WAVE FROM OFF N FL ON A SE TRACK ALONG
THE STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS IT FINALLY MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
WEAKEN OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHIFTS E
AND THEN NE ON TUE. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT HAD PERSISTED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS N OF
PUERTO RICO SHOULD BE STEERED NW ALONG THE SW SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES SYSTEM E OF THE AREA AND INTO THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGHING STRETCHED ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC...PUSHING ITS REMNANTS NE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SAT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE TO 20 KT IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND LIE E OF THE WAVE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE
CENTRAL N ATLC WEAKENS. STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHERE SE FLOW STEERED BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BRING
WINDS TO 20 KT OVER FAR WESTERN WATERS SAT THROUGH MON. TUE
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A DAY OF WINDS UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL N ATLC...WEAK TRADES OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 TO
7 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC
ZONE. LONG PERIOD E SWELL FROM HURRICANE FRED SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY NORTH SWELL ON MONDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS A FOOT OR
TWO AS IT TRAVELS SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONE. FINALLY...MOST OF THE
MODELS CARRY THE REMNANTS OF FRED EASTWARD TOWARD 45W TO 50 W ON
TUE...WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATITUDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS THE 20 KT REMNANT LOW AT
23N49W WED MORNING. HOWEVER...WHAT IS LEFT OF FRED WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS TO ITS N BY MON AND THE
EASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE REMNANT LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT.
WARNINGS
ATLC...
.NONE.
CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE
$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK
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Re: SE Gulf/ Bahamas area
I'm very interested in this area..in fact more so with potential implications to Florida then any other system thus far..The 12Z GFS seems quite reasonable..I think there may be multiple vorticities along the decaying boundary early next week. However, I expect a peice of energy to eject NE and out across the North Atlantic..Thereafter, a more pronounced "tropical low" may form just east of the northern bahamas..With ridging to the North and an improving upper air pattern I would not be surprised to see low pressure form and strengthen to at least TS levels before landfall..The storm should be pushed west across the Florida peninsula.Whether thats Central or South Florida the devils in the details..To sum up I'm going with a TD/TS approaching the east coast of Florida mid-week..More later...
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY AND
STEADILY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOST PRONOUNCED
ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE WESTERN METRO AREAS...AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST AS ACTIVITY PUSHED IN ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TREND OF SLOWLY INLAND-SHIFTING STORMS TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. EXPECT A GRADUAL WINDING DOWN IN ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A STORM COULD POP UP AT
ANYTIME OVER LAND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
REMAINING NEARBY.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT N OF THE REGION INTO N FL AND STALL THERE. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD JUST S OF THE REGION THESE DAYS...INDUCING WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE WEAK FLOW WILL
LIKELY GIVE WAY TO AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE/CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...WHILE
OTHER CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS STEERED EAST AS WELL. BY
SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DVLPG A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AS A MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS/DIGS OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST AND THE BOUNDARY SAGS BACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE REGION. LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
MORE NWRLY THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EVEN IN ABSENCE OF AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE.
ON MONDAY...TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE RGN BUT LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE FL GULF COAST. WITH NERLY WINDS BUILDING
IN BEHIND IT GOOD CONVERGENCE COULD SET UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR/GULF
CST REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD WORK BACK TOWARDS ERN AREAS GIVEN CONTINUING NW FLOW IN
THE MID/UPR LEVELS. BEYOND MONDAY...WEATHER DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION
OF A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN
BAHAMAS AND THE POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE GFS PUSHES THE SFC BOUNDARY COMPLETELY S OF THE AREA TUE
WHILE BRINGING SOME DRIER AND AND SUBSIDENCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NE. BOTH FACTORS WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. FOR MID-LATE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF BOTH WANT TO MOVE THE
LOW FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS SLOWLY TOWARDS SOUTH FL AS A VERY WEAK
SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN DEEPENING ERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE SURGE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER INCREASE IN TSTM CHANCES
THIS PERIOD.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY AND
STEADILY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOST PRONOUNCED
ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE WESTERN METRO AREAS...AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST AS ACTIVITY PUSHED IN ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TREND OF SLOWLY INLAND-SHIFTING STORMS TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. EXPECT A GRADUAL WINDING DOWN IN ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A STORM COULD POP UP AT
ANYTIME OVER LAND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
REMAINING NEARBY.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT N OF THE REGION INTO N FL AND STALL THERE. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD JUST S OF THE REGION THESE DAYS...INDUCING WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE WEAK FLOW WILL
LIKELY GIVE WAY TO AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE/CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...WHILE
OTHER CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS STEERED EAST AS WELL. BY
SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DVLPG A WEAK SFC LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AS A MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS/DIGS OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST AND THE BOUNDARY SAGS BACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE REGION. LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
MORE NWRLY THIS PERIOD. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION EVEN IN ABSENCE OF AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE.
ON MONDAY...TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE RGN BUT LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE FL GULF COAST. WITH NERLY WINDS BUILDING
IN BEHIND IT GOOD CONVERGENCE COULD SET UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR/GULF
CST REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD WORK BACK TOWARDS ERN AREAS GIVEN CONTINUING NW FLOW IN
THE MID/UPR LEVELS. BEYOND MONDAY...WEATHER DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION
OF A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER THE NRN
BAHAMAS AND THE POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE GFS PUSHES THE SFC BOUNDARY COMPLETELY S OF THE AREA TUE
WHILE BRINGING SOME DRIER AND AND SUBSIDENCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NE. BOTH FACTORS WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. FOR MID-LATE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF BOTH WANT TO MOVE THE
LOW FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS SLOWLY TOWARDS SOUTH FL AS A VERY WEAK
SYSTEM...BUT GIVEN DEEPENING ERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE SURGE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER INCREASE IN TSTM CHANCES
THIS PERIOD.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SE Gulf/ Bahamas area
Look what is comming in the second half of September,the wet or favorable MJO.
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sfwx
- Category 1
- Posts: 371
- Age: 59
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:53 pm
- Location: Rural St. Lucie County, Fl
Re: SE Gulf/ Bahamas area
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ALIGNED EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS IT DOES DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
VALUES IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE LIGHT BY DAYBREAK SAT. WILL KEEP POPS AT 50%
FOR THIS EVENING WITH ISOLD THUNDER CHANCES. BIGGEST THREAT WILL
REMAIN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A FEW CELLS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH GREATEST CHANCES IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
SAT...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT TOWARD NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE STEERING FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST. WILL RETAIN INHERITED 60%
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE...THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT RETREATS NORTHWARD AND NEAR THE EAST COAST.
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THIS
PERIOD WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION TO START THE WEEK. TWO INDEPENDENT LOW PRESSURE AREAS...THE
FIRST MOVING UP THE ERN SEA BOARD...THE SECOND OVER THE WRN GOMEX...
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE SE CONUS WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY KEEPING THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER
CUBA/NE CARIB. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE AREAS WILL PLACE THE FL PENINSULA UNDER A LARGE CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER THE GOMEX/SW ATLC...DOMINATED BY A DEEP W/SWRLY FLOW THAT
WILL TAP HIGH PWAT AIR AND PULL IT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS OVER THE FL
PENINSULA SUN/SUN NIGHT. REGIONAL TEMP PROFILE IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH
H70 TEMPS IN THE 10C-11C RANGE..H50 TEMPS BTWN -4C AND -6C. THE SRN
BRANCH OF THE H25 JET IS QUITE WEAK...ONLY A SMALL 60KT MAX OVER THE
DESERT SW IS OF ANY INTEREST. PRECIP TIMING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON
THE TIMING OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE VORT MAXES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT BEYOND 48HRS. PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST THRU 12Z
MON...SCT-LIKELY DURING AFTN/ENG HRS...CHC DURING NIGHT/RNG HRS.
MAX/MIN TEMPS WITHIN A 2-3F DEG OF CLIMO AVG.
MON-THU...(PREV DISC)
THE 00Z GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AS IT SITS OVER NORTHERN FL...
AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE SCOOTING ACROSS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. THIS IN TURN WILL
BRING IN THE ELUSIVE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEAK LOW
MEANDERS TO OUR EAST AND A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THROUGH AND A DEEPENING SFC AND MID
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAN.
WHAT BECOMES OF THIS LOW WILL BE WHAT DICTATES THE WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN POSITION/STRENGTH...BUT BOTH HAVE THE MID LEVEL CUT OFF
BEING REABSORBED INTO A LARGER EASTERN US TROUGH WITH ANOTHER SFC
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VCTY OF THE EASTERN GULF AND FL. FOR
NOW...DO NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT ARGUES FOR ANY PARTICULAR CHANGE IN
POPS...SO WILL KEEP 40% CLIMO FOR MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ALIGNED EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS IT DOES DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
VALUES IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE LIGHT BY DAYBREAK SAT. WILL KEEP POPS AT 50%
FOR THIS EVENING WITH ISOLD THUNDER CHANCES. BIGGEST THREAT WILL
REMAIN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A FEW CELLS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH GREATEST CHANCES IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
SAT...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT TOWARD NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE STEERING FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST. WILL RETAIN INHERITED 60%
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE...THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT RETREATS NORTHWARD AND NEAR THE EAST COAST.
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THIS
PERIOD WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION TO START THE WEEK. TWO INDEPENDENT LOW PRESSURE AREAS...THE
FIRST MOVING UP THE ERN SEA BOARD...THE SECOND OVER THE WRN GOMEX...
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE SE CONUS WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY KEEPING THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER
CUBA/NE CARIB. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE AREAS WILL PLACE THE FL PENINSULA UNDER A LARGE CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER THE GOMEX/SW ATLC...DOMINATED BY A DEEP W/SWRLY FLOW THAT
WILL TAP HIGH PWAT AIR AND PULL IT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS OVER THE FL
PENINSULA SUN/SUN NIGHT. REGIONAL TEMP PROFILE IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH
H70 TEMPS IN THE 10C-11C RANGE..H50 TEMPS BTWN -4C AND -6C. THE SRN
BRANCH OF THE H25 JET IS QUITE WEAK...ONLY A SMALL 60KT MAX OVER THE
DESERT SW IS OF ANY INTEREST. PRECIP TIMING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON
THE TIMING OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE VORT MAXES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT BEYOND 48HRS. PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST THRU 12Z
MON...SCT-LIKELY DURING AFTN/ENG HRS...CHC DURING NIGHT/RNG HRS.
MAX/MIN TEMPS WITHIN A 2-3F DEG OF CLIMO AVG.
MON-THU...(PREV DISC)
THE 00Z GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A WEAK
SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AS IT SITS OVER NORTHERN FL...
AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE SCOOTING ACROSS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. THIS IN TURN WILL
BRING IN THE ELUSIVE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEAK LOW
MEANDERS TO OUR EAST AND A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING THROUGH AND A DEEPENING SFC AND MID
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAN.
WHAT BECOMES OF THIS LOW WILL BE WHAT DICTATES THE WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN POSITION/STRENGTH...BUT BOTH HAVE THE MID LEVEL CUT OFF
BEING REABSORBED INTO A LARGER EASTERN US TROUGH WITH ANOTHER SFC
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE VCTY OF THE EASTERN GULF AND FL. FOR
NOW...DO NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT ARGUES FOR ANY PARTICULAR CHANGE IN
POPS...SO WILL KEEP 40% CLIMO FOR MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
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Re: SE Gulf/ Bahamas area
18Z Nogaps continues some development, formation over northern bahamas then westbound across S.FL.
At H+108 over SFL
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=108
At H+120 moving across SFL
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=120
At H+108 over SFL
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=108
At H+120 moving across SFL
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=120
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brunota2003
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Definitely some convection popping up.
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brunota2003
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Aric Dunn
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we do have a low int he area that crossed northern florida over the past couple days and all models deepen it a little but the phase or tropical nature will be in question. Nam leaves it behind while the gfs takes it out to see with only a little bit of the energy remaining. Nogaps is similar to nam but none make it a substantial system so we will just have to watch to see if we get a tight circ going right now though its broad and elongated.
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gatorcane
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Looks like development east of the Bahamas is becoming increasingly likely. If I were look for development its there where I would look.
You can see a large mess of convection moving east off of FL and a low just east of JAX headed ESE (its sliding east along a front that is washing out)....I see a code yellow or orange going up within the next couple of advisories.
Wind shear continues to be favorable for the Bahamas area:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Hey Aric can you change the subject to remove the Gulf part? It will be all Bahamas or east of the Bahamas here on out if development along the front happens.
You can see a large mess of convection moving east off of FL and a low just east of JAX headed ESE (its sliding east along a front that is washing out)....I see a code yellow or orange going up within the next couple of advisories.
Wind shear continues to be favorable for the Bahamas area:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Hey Aric can you change the subject to remove the Gulf part? It will be all Bahamas or east of the Bahamas here on out if development along the front happens.
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hurricanetrack
- HurricaneTrack.com
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- Location: Wilmington, NC
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:Looks like development east of the Bahamas is becoming increasingly likely. If I were look for development its there where I would look.
You can see a large mess of convection moving east off of FL and a low just east of JAX headed ESE (its sliding east along a front that is washing out)....I see a code yellow or orange going up within the next couple of advisories.
Wind shear continues to be favorable for the Bahamas area:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Hey Aric can you change the subject to remove the Gulf part? It will be all Bahamas or east of the Bahamas here on out if development along the front happens.
Orange? I highly doubt that. Just a broad area of low pressure. Probably going to remain that way in the short term. JMO.
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hurricanetrack
- HurricaneTrack.com
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- Location: Wilmington, NC
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Not even a yellow. Bummer. Looks like things will continue as they have been going with little to no significant development. Even if this does spawn something, it is more than likely to scoot off to the NE pretty quickly- right? I see what VORTEX wrote but am not sure I share the same optimism for development and then a TC threat to Florida by mid week. This is one of those seasons like when your fav sports team loses just short of the championship BUT your arch rival wins it all. You have to deal with that BS all year until tourney time comes around again for a chance to redeem. This hurricane season is like that...but alas, June 1, 2010, it will all begin again. This time we can hope for less dry air, less shear and less sinking air. Apparently we should get a good idea of these conditions well in advance. Afterall, the ECMWF and UKMET people figured it out pretty good for this season- and months ahead of time. Anyhow, just my thoughts on this boring Sunday night.
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Re: SE Gulf/ Bahamas area
Vortex wrote:18Z Nogaps continues some development, formation over northern bahamas then westbound across S.FL.
At H+108 over SFL
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=108
At H+120 moving across SFL
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=120
I would normally share with your thinking but everything this year is west to east not east to west.The bermuda high has cried wolf too many times this year only to remain in a weakened state.If something does form it will most likely scout to the NE.
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