Possible East Gulf Development

[jinftl]

Interesting....i dug up the quote that Dr. Jeff Masters made in his tropical discussion 24 hours ago...

Over the next few days, we should also be alert for tropical storm development along a frontal zone stretching from the Gulf of Mexico waters offshore the western Florida coast, across the Florida Peninsula, to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
(from wundergroun)


There is a large difference in shear in the eastern gulf (very low) vs. between the bahamas and cape hatteras

Am I imagining things or does it appear that much of this activity has shifted to the East coast of FLorida?

[O Town]

6z surface map moves the Low off of the east coast now.

[wxman57]

Nothing in the east Gulf either this week. Tropics quieting down now.

[jinftl]

Dr. Jeff Master's states again this morning that something...either of a tropical or sub-tropical nature....may get going this week from forida on east to the atlantic offshore the southeast u.s.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1318

[wxman57]

Dr. Jeff Master's states again this morning that something...either of a tropical or sub-tropical nature....may get going this week from forida on east to the atlantic offshore the southeast u.s.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1318

Low chance, but anything trying to get going there will be in moderate SW-SSW flow aloft with that deep trof along the East U.S. Coast late in the week, so it would be accelerating out to sea. That UK prediction of 6 named storms for 2009 may not be far off.

[jinftl]

Is overall shear in the basin that out of whack with climatology? Found this graphic...it would seem to suggest otherwise. Wheras shear was not only very high, but above climatologic norms in June and early July, shear has reduced quite a bit and is in line with norms now.

If you think about it, we have had 6 named storms, including 2 majors, in under 30 days. Granted they have mainly been fish or fizzled, but why would the basin shut down with shear near normal (even if they are all fish or meet up with sheer after they are born)?

Dr. Jeff Master's states again this morning that something...either of a tropical or sub-tropical nature....may get going this week from forida on east to the atlantic offshore the southeast u.s.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1318

Low chance, but anything trying to get going there will be in moderate SW-SSW flow aloft with that deep trof along the East U.S. Coast late in the week, so it would be accelerating out to sea. That UK prediction of 6 named storms for 2009 may not be far off.

[cycloneye]

57,nothing more will form in 2009,despite what is comming in the next 2 weeks,favorable MJO?

130-wxman57=10/5/2 This were your numbers at the storm2k poll.

[jinftl]

I have never known of Dr. Masters to be guilty of hyping or sensationalizing....instead he presents his forecasts with both logic and data to back them up (see link below for his full report). That said, when he made the comment below with regards of what to expect the 2nd half of the season (made this forecast on friday, 9/11/09), I definitely got the impression the season is not over for every one. In fact, it may not have even begun for some unlucky folks:

Only one hurricane has made landfall this season--Category 1 Hurricane Bill, which did minimal damage to Newfoundland, Canada. Although it is an El Niño year, and the steering current pattern will continue to be favorable for keeping most of our storms out to sea, I expect we will get a hurricane strike somewhere in the Atlantic this season that will require a disaster response.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... 9&month=09

Dr. Jeff Master's states again this morning that something...either of a tropical or sub-tropical nature....may get going this week from forida on east to the atlantic offshore the southeast u.s.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1318

Low chance, but anything trying to get going there will be in moderate SW-SSW flow aloft with that deep trof along the East U.S. Coast late in the week, so it would be accelerating out to sea. That UK prediction of 6 named storms for 2009 may not be far off.

[wxman57]

I don't think that the 2009 season is over. It's just a few days past the mid point. But something just isn't right out there across the tropics this year, and I think it's a combination of shear, subsidence and dry air. I'm very skeptical of shear maps out across the tropics. They haven't proven very reliable with storms like Erika. We just don't have nearly enough data to say how much shear is really out there over the open oceans.

The OLR and CHI projections are for another period of increasing convection in 2 weeks (see below). We'll see. Those are the same maps that were forecasting a tremendous amount of sinking air and no thunderstorms during the same period last week. A 100% reversal doesn't give me a lot of confidence that the model has a clue. Check out the verification of the past 2 week's forecasts. Not good across the Atlantic Basin:

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_previ ... pentad.htm

I think we'll see another 2-3 storms form, maybe a couple of them will reach hurricane strength. The southeast U.S. isn't out of the woods yet.

[caneman]

I agree WXMN57, something just isn't right this year. Far East Altantic and off the the Carolinas seem to be the only places where anything is able to get going.

[CajunMama]

57,nothing more will form in 2009,despite what is comming in the next 2 weeks,favorable MJO?

130-wxman57=10/5/2 This were your numbers at the storm2k poll.

Ceye, are you stating that nothing more will form or are asking if nothing more will form? It's like you're stating that nothing else will form but you added a question mark at the end.

[Nederlander]

I would be willing to bet that we are on a definite downhill slope for the tropics this season. I think IF anything forms, and thats a big IF, then it will probably be a caribbean storm or something. Like others have said, this has just been a really jacked up season as far as conditions go. I personally am ready for more troughs to bring that cold canadian air down here to texas...

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