BOC

[Frank2]

I'm surprised the NHC is mentioning the SW Carib which is very unimpressive, but doesn't mention the BOC disturbance which has been lingering since the weekend and is now picked up by some models...

Perhaps they'll mention it in the next TWO...

Frank

[lrak]

They probably think they've counted to many chickens before the hatched this year.

[tolakram]

Doesn't have near the spin of the convection in the SW Carib.

[lrak]

Yeah that SW Caribbean is SPINNING.

[wxman57]

Cloud tops are warming. Looks like mostly mid/high clouds as a weak tropical wave interacts with the frontal boundary. No deep convection, just a few showers. Unfavorable conditions aloft.

[Frank2]

Thanks - I haven't had the chance to look at the VIS to carefully so wasn't sure what was going on down there, but agree that the spin is in the SW Carib (still this morning), though my guess is that even if something does form down there, that's in the "year-round" area that's favorable for development, so anything that does form is pretty much restricted to that small area (similar to the commercial with the little girl and her bicycle, and the adult that tells her that the area she's standing in is the only area that she's allowed to use when riding her bicycle)...

Similar to that was a popular (WB) cartoon when I was a kid (perhaps Daffy and Elmer), that went something like, "Lean forward, go back, lean forward...", and on and on...

LOL

[Sanibel]

BOC is definitely activated however it is too late in the season and weak. So I guess that's why they aren't bothering to list it. Persistence is always a key indicator.

[lrak]

Thats for sure and look at the last few frames of the visible. They look like something is trying to spin up? Wind and waves have gradually increased based on the buoy down there.

Shear is WAY high and pressures too.

lrak AKA karl

[vbhoutex]

I've looked at zoomed in visibles of that disturbance and I find no evidence of any kind of spin up at any level. It looks to me like it is a sheared mess of thunderstorms. I won't say it won't spin up something, but I think it is somewhat unlikely. Seems to hostile right now. However, it is persistent and that is what I don't like about it. Bears watching.

[HouTXmetro]

Any updates?

[vbhoutex]

Local ocm's and accuweather are saying we may get some weather(mainly rain) out of this system on Sunday. Just looked at the ir sat loop and it is still being torn apart by the shear. It may have begun to move North a little but it is a very slow progression that way so far. This is a very persistent system so I will definitely be watching it, mainly as a concern for as a possible rainmaker for SE TX.

[Ptarmigan]

Local ocm's and accuweather are saying we may get some weather(mainly rain) out of this system on Sunday. Just looked at the ir sat loop and it is still being torn apart by the shear. It may have begun to move North a little but it is a very slow progression that way so far. This is a very persistent system so I will definitely be watching it, mainly as a concern for as a possible rainmaker for SE TX.

I have heard that too.

[KatDaddy]

The KHOU weather forum is back online:

http://z.khou.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=9

[srainhoutx]

The KHOU weather forum is back online:

http://z.khou.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=9

Bump

[srainhoutx]

I'll post an e-mail from Jeff Lindner here as it has some concern regarding the BoC system...

Significant weather changes on the way for late this weekend.

Main concerns will be coastal flooding and excessive rainfall.

Discussion
Surface ridge in place will move eastward Friday allowing Gulf moisture to return to the region. Bay of Campeche surface trough is forecast to begin to lift northward ahead of a strong upper level storm system off the US west coast. Models are still up in the air on if the Gulf surface trough closes off into a closed surface low pressure system and if it has tropical tendencies. Since a tropical cyclone landfall in TX in November would be extremely rare...I will go with the less aggressive solution at this time. Regardless strong moisture advection of 2.0 in PWS will arrive into the region late Saturday as the upper trough digs into N Mexico and then ejects eastward across TX Sunday. Main thrust of strong dynamic lift comes out Sunday PM and Sunday night and meets well with incoming surface trough/low over the NW Gulf at this time. Very high QPF is generated along the coast and offshore as these two systems come together over the NW Gulf/upper TX coast.

Impacts:

Coastal Flooding
Offshore winds will gradually intensify as surface pressure fall in the southern Gulf and strong high pressure anchors over the SE US. Expect high end SCA to low end gale conditions over the central Gulf by early Saturday. Wave Watch III model shows central Gulf swells building to near 15 feet with periods increasing to near 10 seconds. This supports nearshore swells of 8 feet or better with long periods. ENE to E fetch from FL to TX will promote extensive Ekman transport of N Gulf water coastward. Additionally, current luner phase is supporting 1.5-2.5 feet above normal tides without atmospheric effects. Given expected large swell action and already increased tide levels...coastal flooding seems likely as early as Saturday and worsen on Sunday. Total tides may run 3.5-4.5 feet above normal along the middle and upper TX coast which is well into the local warning criteria especially after dune loss from Ike. Tides of this level may flood portions of the west end of Galveston, Bolivar, and low lying areas within Galveston and Matagorda Bays. Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued Friday.

Rainfall:
Still a little early to nail down QPF amounts as there is still large model spread and still uncertainty as to what will transpire in the NW Gulf. Given moisture levels back up to near 200% above November normals and very strong lift noted with the incoming trough heavy rainfall seems likely. Main question is if this remains offshore should a surface reflection develop over the NW Gulf. Best thing is to raise rain chances into the 50-60% for Sunday PM and then likely ramp up more for Sunday night. Heaviest rains may focus near the coast which would not have a big impact on our current river flooding. Should the models start to trend toward more inland penetration of the heavy rains...a Flash Flood Watch could be require given grounds are still soggy and the Nov sun angle is low so things do not dry as much as they would in July.

Hurricane Ida:

Ida rapidly intensified overnight before making landfall this morning over NE Nicaragua. Even though the hurricane has been inland for several hours it remains very well organized and continues to maintain hurricane intensity in a small area near the center.

Track:
Guidance is clustered on Ida turning toward the north and entering the western Caribbean in the next 48 hours and then moving steadily NNW to N into the SC Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. This track is in agreement with the most respected hurricane forecasting models. After Tuesday the models greatly diverge on the track and fate of Ida. The GFS and EURO show a stall and various looping track back toward the S and even SW where the system is sheared apart by nearly 70kts of upper level wind shear. Climatology highly favors a NE to E track toward FL, but the models are not showing this at this time.

Intensity:
Ida will weaken over central America and it is very possible the system completely falls apart before regaining the warm Caribbean waters. If it does make the water as suggested by the NHC track then intensification back into a TS looks likely over the Caribbean Sea. Upper level winds shear should prevent any kind of rapid intensification and the current forecast maintains a TS into the southern Gulf of Mexico. After Tuesday wind shear greatly increases over the Gulf of Mexico and Ida should weaken especially if it is stalled or looping southwestward. Only the GFDL forecast Ida to be a hurricane (cat 4) in the Gulf of Mexico and this seems unlikely given the increasing unfavorable upper air conditions.

[srainhoutx]

Updeted HPC Final is out...snipet...

FOR DAY 3 SUN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EAST AND WEST COAST WITH
BOTH HIGHS PROGRESSING EWD. DEEP BROAD EASTERLY FLOW CONTS INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
LOWERING OF WRN GULF PRESSURES TO AN INVERTED SFC TROF OR A
DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE STRONG EAST FLOW. THIS WILL
SPREAD IN MODERATE TO HEAVY GULF COASTAL RAINS FROM SOUTHEAST TX
TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND NWD INTO MS/AL/GA AND NWD UP THE
APPALACHAINS AND TO THE EAST COAST FROM MON TO WED. SOUTHWARD T.S.
IDA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NWD ALONG YUCATAN OR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO THE GULF MEXICO BY DAY 5 WITH A MOVEMENT INTO A MORE
HOSTILE NON TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. COORDINATED NHC/HPC DAYS 6-7
POSITIONS FOR IDA OR ITS REMAINS ARE DEPICTED AS AN EAST CENTRAL
GLFMEX LOW ENHANCED BY STRONG E-NE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLC REGION. POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SET UP FOR
MUCH OF FLORIDA LATE NEXT WEEK. SEE NHC ADVISORIES FOR IDA.

[vbhoutex]

Even though there is obviously no circulation with the current SW GOM system it is obviously being drawn Nward by the trough incoming from the West. It is going to be interesting to watch the interaction between the trough and probable TS Ida in the Se or Sc GOM beginning on Sunday, if Ida is in the GOM by then. Final destination of this probable GOM rinmaker witll be guided somewhat by those two systems. If the trough comes in first and I think it will then I would expect a LA and Eastward "landfall". If both systems are in the GOM at the same time, depending on how far West in the E GOM "Ida" is then we could be looking at a more Westerly GOM "landfall for the SW GOM system. Anyway we look at it this system bears watching just for the potential flooding problems it could cause since much of the Southern states are soggy right now. Unless conditions change significantly I do not see this becoming a tropical system.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

there is MLL trying to get started down there, as seen on visible. Right off the coast of Yuc. No signs of anything on the surface but you can see the midlevel clouds fairly well starting to spin. Plenty of low level convergence as well as divergence. Shear still screaming though...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[lrak]

On WV it appears that 96E is feeding both Ida and the BOC. Also these troughs seem to be coming in lower this year and making the WGOM kinda look like the East Coast in a normal tropical season. It looks like what you guys are saying is a TX hit is not out of the question from something other than Ida?


http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bob ... st/six_day Wow, can't wait!

And check out just North of Port Aransas, big with offshore winds, decisions, decisions.

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/San ... st/six_day

This wave forecast seems to indicate an NW wind in Corpus by Tuesday at 20 mph, so is that going to be produced by a cold front or something tropical?

I'm planning my sick days already.

[lrak]

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
NAM/GFS SHOW THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AT LEAST
1.5 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO 12Z SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AS AN OPEN TROUGH BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP. 00Z/12Z CANADIAN AND
00Z ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER LOW MOVING FURTHER WEST INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY OVER THE MID
COAST. BUT THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN MORE IN LINE WITH GFS SOLUTION
WITH A WEAKER LOW AND MOISTURE/POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MORE
TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS ON SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MAINTAINING OR INCREASING THE OFFSHORE FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.