Development in the SW Caribbean?

[CourierPR]

On satellite, it appears convection is increasing down there.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC shows a fairly intense cyclone there. GFS shows it in the EPAC

12Z GFS shows something in the WCAR but weak on this run. 12Z CMC continues to show something in the SWCAR drifting into Central America.





SW Carib is becoming more active:

[cycloneye]

From 1 PM EST Tropical Weather Outlook.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

UKMET enters the fray of development in the SW Caribbean.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.5N 81.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.11.2009 10.5N 81.5W WEAK
00UTC 04.11.2009 11.5N 81.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.11.2009 11.1N 82.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.11.2009 12.3N 81.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2009 12.4N 82.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.11.2009 12.4N 82.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.11.2009 13.1N 81.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.11.2009 13.5N 81.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.11.2009 13.3N 82.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2009 13.5N 81.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2009 13.5N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

gatorcane=I edited title to take out the words long range.

[tolakram]

It's spinning.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF Develops a Tropical Storm

Moves it into the GOM.See the loop.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

[HURAKAN]

Wow. That's a nice spin!

[wxman57]

Definite mid-level spin, and possibly weak LLC. Way more impressive than 96L. It may be trapped down there for a while. Conditions aloft to the north are hostile toward development. 12Z GFS eventually lifts it out ahead of a strong cold front next week, across Cuba then Bahamas. Whether it would survive in such an environment ahead of the front is questionable. GFS also indicates moisture/vorticity moving northward into southern Mexico/Yucatan from the East Pac next week and develops a low over the Yucatan. That one's definitely questionable.

Here's a current surface analysis with satellite:

[Ivanhater]

Wxman, GFS seems to be on its own with that solution getting picked up by a trough. Canadian and Euro keep high pressure in the eastern gulf. What seems confusing is the dueling lows going on. This from the 12z Euro

[Derek Ortt]

floater placed on this at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

tagged as invest 14

[Ivanhater]

Model rundown...

UKMET



EURO



cmc



gfs



nam

[Sanibel]

North of Panama has a little spin to it but is probably another weak 2009 bluff.

[cycloneye]

[Ivanhater]

[gatorcane]

Well NHC has now mentioned this area. Certainly looks like development is possible.
(I understand it may not have looked like an area that would deserve attention when I originally opened up this thread last Mon.).

Anyway,
Will track it and update this thread later.

[cycloneye]

Unlike the past week,the EPAC low is well separated from the SW Caribbean one.That may allow to the low to not compete with another low as it occured the last time.

18Z Surface Analysis.

[Ivanhater]

18z gfs, shows 2 tropical storms as well

[Ivanhater]

Landfall of a tropical storm on the northern gulfcoast in November would be something..but the best model support I have seen in some time