Possible GOM/Caribbean development

[ronjon]

I don't think there's any doubt the moisture and some weak circulation will make it into the western caribbean or SE GOM from Agatha. Upper level steering winds and models are all pretty much showing it. I don't see much model support (except for the overactive CMC) for anything other than a weak low at this point.

[wxman57]

With that upper trof across the SE U.S., westerly winds are ripping across the Gulf and dipping into the NW Caribbean now. Westerly winds of 50-60 kts across the NW Caribbean. That sure seals off the Gulf from anything for now, and probably Florida, too. Any moisture from Agatha should move quickly NE toward eastern Cuba if it makes it into the Caribbean.

[boca]

The latest 00GFS model shows the moisture from Agatha moving across South Florida around Tues/Wed timeframe.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[JonathanBelles]

I have one concern with the 0z GFS...it didnt initialize right.

[ronjon]

Latest CMC, GFS, GFDL, and HWRF model runs all take the remnants of Agatha N-NE into the SE GOM and across the FL peninsula in the 4 to 5 day time frame. The remnants are pulled N and NE due to a shortwave trough moving across the northern gulf coast in 5 days. All models show just a weak surface or mid-level reflection of low pressure probably due to the high shear environment. In any case, looks like some good rains on top of the daily diurnal convection that started late last week. I think the summer rainy season has started for FL.

[ronjon]

From NWS Tampa Bay AFD:

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A FEW DISCREPANCIES IN THE LONG TERMS MODELS ARISE THIS
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM DUE TO ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS THE EFFECTS...IF ANY...THAT THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WILL HAVE ON SW AND CENTRAL FL. GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOWING A 1011-1013 WAVE
MOVING NE FROM THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND PUSHING THROUGH THE WEST
CENTRAL PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EURO CURRENTLY APPEARS A BIT MORE REASONABLE SHOWING A
MODERATE MOISTURE SURGE REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED UP POPS ACROSS THE CWA (MAINLY COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT WATERS) TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TYPE OF MOISTURE
SURGE.

[wxman57]

Agatha is moving toward a jet core that's currently across the southern Gulf. Wind shear increases from 20-30 kts across the NW Caribbean to 40-60 kts across the SE Gulf in the jet core. I don't think the remnants will be around as long as the GFS is forecasting (Tue-Wed). Development chances appear low due to the high shear.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Nice up to the moment view of the Gulf while it lasts:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced

[blp]

SSD has the floater back on it on the Atlantic side with the label Agatha.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[AtlanticWind]

EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM AGATHA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE
GUATEMALA/MEXICAN BORDER LAST EVENING...AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA...BUT THE TORRENTIAL RAIN
THREAT SURELY HAS NOT DISSIPATED THERE. WHY AM I DISCUSSING THIS?
BECAUSE THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA COULD IMPACT SOUTH FL WEATHER LATE
TUE-WED...POSSIBLY INTO THU. MODELS DIFFER THOUGH. GFS HAS BEEN THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A VORT FROM THIS REMNANT SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH FL WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING A MORE STRETCHED OUT/ELONGATED
E-W VORT WITH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL AND POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTH. GFS PWATS INCREASE UP TO ~2.25" BY WED WHILE THE ECMWF MAXES
OUT NEAR 2". THE GFS SHOWS MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING MOVING
TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA...EVEN A WEAK LOW...WHILE THE ECWMF DOES
NOT. BUT EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH
GIVES MORE CREDENCE TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. GFS MOS POPS HAVE
INCREASED...NOW LIKELY BOTH TUE-WED. GIVEN ALL OF THIS HAVE DECIDED
TO INCREASE POPS BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFS...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFYING. POPS CAN BE TRENDED FURTHER UPWARD
IF NEED BE WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.



From Miami NWS

[cycloneye]

Hmmm,convection has increased. I would not be surprised if invest 91L is up later today.

[MortisFL]

Yep, starting to flare up.

[punkyg]

Where is ex Agatha's center?

[JonathanBelles]

It looks to me that the 'center' is just to the west of the newest ball of convection, but I'm going to wait about an hour for visible to come around. Anyone know when the next scatterometer (ASCAT or WINDSAT) pass will occur?

[cycloneye]

Sun comming out in the area.Lets see if the visible image shows more.

[NDG]

Vorticity appears to be above the surface, by looking surface observations this morning, while surface low or trough appears to be closer to the coast than the H85 vorticity.
Surface pressures have not really fallen in that area so far, but if convection keeps firing up during the day there is a possibility of a surface low formation close to the convection, IMO.

[brunota2003]

Hm...had this developed the day prior, I could of been close with the guess of the letter A forming as a TD at the end of May, but not getting named until June 1 (though the day is not over, so we will see...and that is assuming it becomes more than what it currently is!)

[boca]

It looks like the vorticity is right along the coast on the western edge of that ball of convection.We might have a player here unless it decides to go poof.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Low level convergence increasing in the area.

[cycloneye]

Web cam from Belize.