Bonnie's Miami Landfall, What Does It Mean For SFL?

[Patrick99]

So certainly I do wonder if this type of pattern will also be around by August and September. If it is, wouldn't surprise me to have some systems from the east we will have to watch. I also want to emphasize to not underestimate October since South Florida is hit more from the South (from the Caribbean) than the East. In La Nina years the Western Caribbean can generate hurricanes where generally they get lifted northward as heights are generally lower across North America due to the onset of fall. There have even been systems from the east that have hit South Florida in October as well. So South Florida is just as vulnerable in October as August or September.

Exactly....it is certainly possible to be hit from the east in October as well as the south. People seem to overlook October just because there usually are no big long-tracking Cape Verde storms, but the potential for major home-grown hurricanes in October is quite high. People should look at some of the historical tracks for that month.

[fci]

I think the chances of getting hit from the east in October pale in comparison with getting hit from the southwest or west. October generally is a Western Carib. issue and not the tropical Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

I think a strong SE ridge will present for most of the season, and this would favor tracks through the Caribbean or towards Florida and into the Gulf.

[chepps]

This means storms follow earlier storms like magnets? That\'s so cool!

[Patrick99]

I think the chances of getting hit from the east in October pale in comparison with getting hit from the southwest or west. October generally is a Western Carib. issue and not the tropical Atlantic.

True, but it has happened a few times. I don't remember what years, but I remember seeing that they were substantial hurricanes too, not just weaklings.

[Blown Away]

I think a strong SE ridge will present for most of the season, and this would favor tracks through the Caribbean or towards Florida and into the Gulf.

What makes you think that with the models predicting negative NAO conditions come August?

[Bocadude85]

I think the chances of getting hit from the east in October pale in comparison with getting hit from the southwest or west. October generally is a Western Carib. issue and not the tropical Atlantic.

True, but it has happened a few times. I don't remember what years, but I remember seeing that they were substantial hurricanes too, not just weaklings.

in 1985 Hurricane Kate passed through the Fl Straits in November as a cat 2 in 1950 Hurricane King made landfall in Miami as a cat 3 from the SE and in 1964 Hurricane Cleo made landfall in Miami from the SE as a cat 2

[Kyuuubi]

I don't like to bump threads too much, but I live in the area Bonnie made landfall: http://xanacondax.deviantart.com/art/Tr ... -172416099

It was quite a brief storm actually... not much spectacle in the wind part of it, but I snapped a pic when the center passed overhead and it was rather interesting view.Needless to say I'll take preference over another "Bonnie type storm"any day, over another Andrew or Wilma. Still have a ton of pictures I snapped during the worst of Bonnie and immediately after.

As for the implications of this season for here... I don't think it says anything really :\
In 2006 we had Ernesto hit us from the south, and nothing else really hit South FL anyway that year, compared to '05 where Katrina and Wilma both had direct impacts in my area

[gatorcane]

Exactly, it means nothing as there appears there will be no significant threats from the east this year.

[thetruesms]

Exactly, it means nothing as there appears there will be no significant threats from the east this year.

Not very often TS or Hurricanes effect SFL during July, so a Bonnie landfall in SFL may mean a very active season for SFL, especially late season systems from the NW Caribbean.

404 claim of threat from the east not found - if anything, this may soon be the most interesting period to see if it does hint at anything.

[somethingfunny]

How about the King?

[jinftl]

Per NWS Miami, the most active month for tropical systems to effect south florida is October....and those storms are coming from the southwest most often (i.e., wilma)


September is the most active month for tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. However, for mainland South Florida, September ranks second behind October for the total number of tropical storms and hurricanes to impact the area. However, major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have hit South Florida most often during the month of September.

Since 1851, a total of 28 recorded tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have impacted mainland South Florida. This ranks second behind the month of October, when 30 tropical cyclones impacted the area. In September, there have been a total of 15 hurricanes impacting the local area, again second to October which has had 19 hurricanes.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news ... SoFLTC.pdf

[Florida1118]

Per NWS Miami, the most active month for tropical systems to effect south florida is October....and those storms are coming from the southwest most often (i.e., wilma)


September is the most active month for tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. However, for mainland South Florida, September ranks second behind October for the total number of tropical storms and hurricanes to impact the area. However, major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have hit South Florida most often during the month of September.

Since 1851, a total of 28 recorded tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) have impacted mainland South Florida. This ranks second behind the month of October, when 30 tropical cyclones impacted the area. In September, there have been a total of 15 hurricanes impacting the local area, again second to October which has had 19 hurricanes.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news ... SoFLTC.pdf

I wish the Tampa Office would write things like Tropical statistics. They probably dont because we dont get hit by nearly as many as you South Floridians do.