#30 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 11, 2010 6:04 pm
My only bone in the debate has been to confront the endless barrage of season cancel posts in every thread. Since there is a new, dedicated thread from the foremost tropical expert on the planet, I'm going to put some things to bed. First of all, I never made any seasonal predictions of numbers or any of that. I didn't even read the "guess how many storms are going to be this year" thread. I have no dog in that battle and nothing with any numbers game stakes to defend. Having said that, there are issues that would lead one to believe that we're in for a bumpy-*** ride over the next 6 to possibly 8 weeks.
1) Too many upper level lows!
Wrong. For probably the 10th time in the last two weeks, I'm going to put it out there: Concentric, Upper-Level Lows migrating east to west across the Atlantic Basin are often a sign of an above-average landfalling, US Season. Rather than what you see in El Nino years, these types of lows and their migration are more often seen in Neutral (including transitional) and particularly La Nina seasons. It's not a hard rule, but it's an indication. And when they plow west across the water and ultimately into Texas or Mexico, that's a sign that you will probably see some western based tracks. The summer pattern has not sufficiently transitioned yet to garner multiple hurricanes and major storms. They're coming. And anyone who says they aren't is fooling themselves.
2) Posters keep delaying the expected on-set of tropical weather. This has been a repeated mantra on the forums this season. "You said two weeks ago in a few weeks." This is a ridiculous argument being parlayed around and would only be expected from a tropical watching novice. I think a lot of people using that argument are having Tropical ADD issues. Find an extra hobby or something. The season will be ramping up, (e.g. it's coming) on nature's terms. Go find the bell curve if you've never seen it because the climb doesn't really start for another couple of days. And it doesn't peak for a month. Here's another hint: La Nina seasons often go a little later into the calendar year than neutral.
3) There's something this year that just isn't right!
This is a wrong assessment for early-mid August (could be valid by November though). There's nothing wrong. Atmospheric conditions are rarely ever such that you get any major-league systems in June or July. I cited the two I could think of off the top of my head last night - Dennis in 2005 (July) and Audrey in 1957 (June I'm pretty sure). Someone else chimed in Allen (think the discussion carried to August 10th, since it was yesterday). Maybe there are one or two other, US landfalling early-August majors that I can't think of. But that isn't a particularly large sample. June and October generally feature sheared out hybrid systems butted up to upper level lows and shear zones. This is to be expected on some level until the conditions ripen. Just because the SST's are there, or the energy is there, or the shear is low or whatever doesn't mean that you're going to get a named storm out of a mass or invest. Sometimes you will, sometimes you won't. But you wouldn't have seen many by now anyway, so we're not on any type of deviation from the normal season. Several pro mets have chimed in on the forum with their thoughts. Could they all be wrong? Possibly. Are they, doubtful? Klotzbach chimed in today. Bastardi gave his hint away on 8/5 or 8/8 that he wasn't changing his forecast at all. Now he's known to be hard-headed, but he's increasingly bullish on the season. He will have a full update on August 18th. Remember, he's calling for 8 US Landfall impacts (5 of which are hurricanes). We haven't even seen the first of those 5 hurricane impacts yet. In the meantime, his corporation put this out today for consumption (see below).
In the meantime, I wish people wouldn't be all nervous about the season being boring. There have been enough teases that haven't amounted to a whole lot that many of us are thankful for but perhpas has helped whet our appetites for something a little more. But at the same time, I can do without losing all my stuff again (not that I ever much replaced anything, but what I do have I don't want to lose), I can do without 15-20 hour evacuations on the fly. I can do without long power outages ('05, '08), moldy sheetrock ('05), lines at the gas station and the other usual headaches. So don't anyone go classifying me as a doomcaster. I'm a realist. And what I see is the bigger picture.
From Accu:
hile it seems like the hurricane season has been average so far, the storms we have seen are indicators that this will be a major hurricane season.
"We've already seen some activity... when we do see a system that comes through early, like Alex did... that's an indicator that there are variables out there that are favorable for an active season," AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mark Mancuso said.
Traditionally, seasons that are considered "active" in terms of tropical storms or hurricanes produce their biggest storms in the later part of the season, from mid-August and through September. This means that we are on the cusp of a season that could have 18-21 named storms, with at least eight impacts.
AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi said he expects an influx of storms to begin Aug. 20.
He said, "An upcoming frenzy of storms, days with two or three storms on the chart, will take the current perceived lack of storms up very quickly."
According to Bastardi, of the tropical systems that have moved through thus far, four have forced tropical storm watches on portions of the U.S. coast, and most of those also put tropical storm-force winds along the impacted coasts.
Mancuso said there are many factors that are taken into consideration when planning a hurricane forecast.
Some indicators that we are going to have a very active season include an Atlantic cycle that is bringing warm weather to the East Coast, a La Nina trend that is producing weaker winds in the upper atmosphere, and warm sea surface temperatures in the tropics and Atlantic.
Mancuso also said that the waves coming off Africa are more pronounced, and when they hit the combination of factors-warm water temperatures, weak trade winds and pressure systems in the tropics-there is a greater chance for them to develop into storms.
Bastardi said that the weather "pattern becomes more conducive for development" beginning around the latter part of August.
Mancuso agreed, saying, "We don't typically expect to see things ramp until the end of August, beginning of September."
While some may be relaxing because the heart of the season is just beginning, Mancuso encouraged people not to let down their guard. He said, "It only takes one, in your area, to be the worst hurricane season ever."
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