Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Frank2]

Could be a fishie, but it might be one of those closer calls if it does develop - still, to the NWS forecaster 384 hour maps are out in TVLand (lol), so this will change, almost for sure...

[thetruesms]

Heh. half a month from now.

Indeed, but it is a tempting look at the future. It'd be about the perfect hurricane (very strong, fun to track, over open water) until you realize the fact that in that frame it's more or less right over Bermuda

[Ivanhater]

Model rundown

Canadian



GFS



Euro

[cycloneye]

To say is going to be a fish or not is way too premature. This loop is from the 06z GFS that shows this wave now in Central Africa moving over me in Puerto Rico, but the 12z run has it moving well north.So as you can see, long range runs change a lot. Is the pattern what is despicting as favorable that the models are showing us.

[Blown Away]

The system that turns into a Cat 5 east of the CONUS is that the same one that moves over PR?

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: The system that turns into a Cat 5 east of the CONUS is that the same one that moves over PR?

One word, yes.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: The system that turns into a Cat 5 east of the CONUS is that the same one that moves over PR?

One word, yes.

Ok, I think we finally have a player that will keep us glued to Storm2k for days, no science just a gut feeling. Whenever we have a hurricane west of 60W during the last week of August I pay attention, troughs are still weak and there is usually more opportunity for a system to move farther west. It will be fun to track a CV Cat 5 as long as it does not landfall!

[ConvergenceZone]

Are there going to be wobble wars while it's still over moving over Africa?

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 144 hours.

[srainhoutx]

Strong signals folks. Add to the fact that the GFS Ensembles are suggesting MJO moving toward octant 2, we have a setup that has a lot of potential regarding development IMO.

[thetruesms]

Are there going to be wobble wars while it's still over moving over Africa?

It's probably just a matter of time

[caneseddy]

12z ECMWF at 144 hours.

Love that High Pressure just sitting over the Western Atlantic . Guess the Euro picks up the ridging pattern about to set up as the GFS

[cycloneye]

The San Juan NWS AFD is already mentioning it.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

LOOKING WELL AHEAD...MODELS ARE EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE TO COME OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA...AROUND TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
FORECASTERS WILL BE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

[ConvergenceZone]

ove that High Pressure just sitting over the Western Atlantic . Guess the Euro picks up the ridging pattern about to set up as the GFS

I was seeing this as well, which is why I'm wondering why the GFS is pulling this out to see
in the long distance model runs...Is the GFS maybe sensing the high moving east?

[caneseddy]

ove that High Pressure just sitting over the Western Atlantic . Guess the Euro picks up the ridging pattern about to set up as the GFS

I was seeing this as well, which is why I'm wondering why the GFS is pulling this out to see
in the long distance model runs...Is the GFS maybe sensing the high moving east?

The thing is that the GFS is known for overdoing troughs and making them deeper than they actually will become

[BigA]

I was seeing this as well, which is why I'm wondering why the GFS is pulling this out to see
in the long distance model runs...Is the GFS maybe sensing the high moving east?

Doesn't the GFS have a tendency to overdo troughs and therefore recurve storms farther east than they actually recurve?

[chzzdekr81]

GFS continues to develop it. I dont care if is a fish,I want to finnally track something.


12z at 144 hours.

What's that in the Gulf?

[srainhoutx]

GFS continues to develop it. I dont care if is a fish,I want to finnally track something.


12z at 144 hours.



What's that in the Gulf?

Surface low that develops again from TD 5 remnants.

[CourierPR]

I see three consecutive posts about a possible GOM system,including a post from a Moderator.
Am I in the wrong thread?

[srainhoutx]

I see three consecutive posts about a possible GOM system,including a post from a Moderator.
Am I in the wrong thread?

Probably time for a new topic in Talkin Tropics for the GOM system portrayed by the models.