SW Caribbean Sea.........

[Andrew92]

I actually tore apart the odds of this happening looking at other models and history in my week's prediction. The last storm to develop in this region, during this upcoming week (August 16-22), was Dolly in 1996. Well, I just went a little deeper to find the most recent one before that. You'd have to go back to 1973, courtesy of Hurricane Brenda, to find the last one to develop in this region, during this week, before 1996's Dolly.

In other words....not very good odds.

-Andrew92

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps still at it

[Vortex]

18Z Nam has joined the Nogaps developing the system across the SW Caribbean…Apparently the energy entering the Eastern Caribbean will head west and be the spark to ignite possible development.

[KWT]

Good ole Nogaps and NAM, some real heavyweight model support...

Give this area another 2 months, then we really need to watch this region closely.

[ROCK]

nothing on any other globals I can see....if the CMC doesnt see it then its a phantom IMO...you never know though....

[Ivanhater]

Can't say Nogaps hasn't been consistent

[Vortex]

Im increasingly interested in this area...You can follow the T-wave heading west across the eastern carribean this evening. It should arrive to provide additional instability to the region in about 36 hours. This may be the spark needed to get this area going.. Models indicate an extremely favorable environment across the western carribean later this week.

Nogaps has been very consistent on developing a cyclone over this area since last week. ECM now indicates a surface reflection in about 2-3 days across the region. Nam also as of the 18Z run also is on board.

Most globals develop deep troughiness along the East coast late this week into early next week. Should something form it would not be surprising at all to see it lift North as the pattern would be more reflective of early fall. Regardless, it's unusual to see developments in mid-august across the sw carribean but if the pattern fits it's certainly possible and now consider this a distinct possibilit.


12Z Euro
H+72

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0081612!!/

[Dean4Storms]

It has been consistent on developing something down there that is for sure!

[ROCK]

Im increasingly interested in this area...You can follow the T-wave heading west across the eastern carribean this evening. It should arrive to provide additional instability to the region in about 36 hours. This may be the spark needed to get this area going.. Models indicate an extremely favorable environment across the western carribean later this week.

Nogaps has been very consistent on developing a cyclone over this area since last week. ECM now indicates a surface reflection in about 2-3 days across the region. Nam also as of the 18Z run also is on board.

Most globals develop deep troughiness along the East coast late this week into early next week. Should something form it would not be surprising at all to see it lift North as the pattern would be more reflective of early fall. Regardless, it's unusual to see developments in mid-august across the sw carribean but if the pattern fits it's certainly possible and now consider this a distinct possibilit.


12Z Euro
H+72

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0081612!!/

nice post...I look at the EURO every run during this time of year and I missed this surface refelction at 72....I am so ashamed.....

at 144 seems to bury it in Belize but the point that it is sniffing it is a concern.

[Vortex]

00z GFS on board



at 60 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[ROCK]

yeah to some extent....84hr seems to be lower pressures abound off the coast of CA....the EURO and NAM has this as well.......

[South Texas Storms]

is the storm that hits texas at 324 hours on the 00z gfs from this activity?

[Ivanhater]

[ROCK]

well the NOGAPS will not let it go it seems.....thats a lot of runs in a row in and around the same area.

[ROCK]

is the storm that hits texas at 324 hours on the 00z gfs from this activity?

no...this is a different area.....324hr GFS is garbage. You dont look for development at that range...

[South Texas Storms]

well the NOGAPS will not let it go it seems.....thats a lot of runs in a row in and around the same area.

yeah rock very consistent. it has showed this for the past 3 days at least. im feeling that somethings got to give from this area with a little more model support now.

[Florida1118]

I still dont know. I think Ill worry about the other waves before this. Ill belive it when the NHC puts up a good chance of Development.

[Stratosphere747]

yeah rock very consistent. it has showed this for the past 3 days at least. im feeling that somethings got to give from this area with a little more model support now.

The GFS has been showing a hint of energy in this area since the 9th as I posted earlier in the thread.

Only issue is what was the parallel (and now the current operational) GFS was that it showed almost a continuous stream of impulses early in the season that came from the W Caribbean and across the YP into the S Gulf.

No idea if it's some kind of feedback/modeling issue with the new GFS as we see the same idea being shown in the longer range run of 0z.

[Dean4Storms]

This has to be the Wave now in the eastern Carib. Sea. NOGAPS has not let go of this since late last week.

[Stormcenter]

Yawn....after what I've seen so far this season I'll believe it when I see it.