Another Strong Wave off African Coast (Is Invest 96L)

[SouthFloridawx]

[Macrocane]

This one really bears watching IMO becasue it has some model support.

CMC 12z 96 hours

GFS 18z 72 hours

GFDL 18z 96 hours You can see it east of TD Six

And the NOGAPS is in agreement too as you can see in the above post.

[South Texas Storms]

it finally seems as though the tropics are heating up both in the atlantic and pacific.

[Vortex]

should have an invest tommorrow...system looking mighty impressive tonight with a huge envelope...much more interested long-term with this system than 6 as pattern may bring this much further west if danielle doesnt leave to much of a weakness with her departure...

[ColinDelia]

"Model analyses are depicting two pouches; one east and another
west of 5E. The eastern one "wins" out in all models within the
first 24 h"

[cycloneye]

00z GFS develops this starting at 42 hours.

[cycloneye]

96 hours.

[South Texas Storms]

is this the first run that the gfs develops this wave?

[cycloneye]

120 hours.

[cycloneye]

is this the first run that the gfs develops this wave?

No,it has been showing it since 06z this morning.

[South Texas Storms]

ok thanks luis. looks like we might have earl and danielle to track this week.

[cycloneye]

ok thanks luis. looks like we might have earl and danielle to track this week.

Other models like CMC,NOGAPS and ECMWF develop it.

[gatorcane]

this one will have a much less chance of recurving than TD 6 it looks like. Will be watching this one closely.

[cycloneye]

174 hours.

[cycloneye]

It weakens at the long range timeframes. Here is the loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

00z CMC goes westbound.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[South Texas Storms]

if that motion continues on the cmc, earl could be caribbean bound.

[Vortex]

CMC 00z is a bit concerning. It would likely miss the weakness and have a shot to get very far west on that run. My concern is the outflow from danielle will keep earl in check preventing the storm from getting strong and in fact probablly sheared until it reaches 50W..At that point, danielle moves out and Earl has a chance to ramp up before reaching the islands. Im interested in the long range cmc out in a bit...

[South Texas Storms]

CMC 00z is a bit concerning. It would likely miss the weakness and have a shot to get very far west on that run. My concern is the outflow from danielle will keep earl in check preventing the storm from getting strong and in fact probablly sheared until it reaches 50W..At that point, danielle moves out and Earl has a chance to ramp up before reaching the islands. Im interested in the long range cmc out in a bit...

what time does that come out at?

[Vortex]

within the next hour....