Caribbean development? (Is invest 92L)

[Ivanhater]

Looking over the latest Euro, the culprit comes form a wave moving into the Islands in 48 hours. We should see a flare up there in about 48 hours

[Ivanhater]

Yep, 18z NAM showing the wave the Euro develops approaching the Islands

[Wx_Warrior]

About to just ask...anything else on board...CMC?

[ColinDelia]

I'm pretty sure its the wave analyzed at 43 W

[Ivanhater]

Looks about right Colin.

18z Nam jumps on board with the Euro

[ColinDelia]

Will be interesting to see 18z GFS

[Wx_Warrior]

Not much through 66hrs

[KWT]

Pattern probably favours a threat for the Yucatan/Mexico aqnd maybe Texas from that and thats a classic La Nina type track for systems that develop in the Caribbean.

Certainly does need watching, systems developing in the C/W Caribbean often become quite strong quite quickly in La nina years under favourable conditons.

[Macrocane]

Gilbert, Mitch, Dean, Felix some of the Caribbean systems during La Niña years. It still needs more model support and more consistency but certainly it's something to watch.

[ROCK]

to be honest I dont see a wave 48hrs out in the MDR....where are we looking at? 40W? that looks like ITCZ...

[cycloneye]

What ROCK said. I am also trying to find the culprit.

[ROCK]

I thought the ECM lifted this up out of SA....have to go back and see where it is initilizing from...right now I see nada between a gaston wannabe and 91L....

at 43w you have a string of convection that looks ITCZish to me...

[Ivanhater]

Nothing now, but we will likely see a flare up approaching the Islands (around Martinique) in about 2 days. The origin shows up on the Euro in 48 hours moving through the Islands

48 hours



96 hours



120 hours

[Ivanhater]

00z Nam shows the moisture surge moving through the Islands that the Euro derives the system from.

[Andrew92]

I mentioned in my weekly prediction that it would be pretty hard-pressed to see something in the Caribbean between now and Sunday based on recent history. However, one thing I have thought of that doesn't seem to be talked about: if we are to compare 2010 to years like 1998 and 2005, those two years had something in common. That something is a significant October hurricane in this part of the world. Could it happen next week instead, yeah, but if we're still talking about it on Sunday, I'll discuss it more then.

But 1998 had Mitch, and 2005 had Wilma. If those two are some of our best analogs, could it happen again this year? Or even next week? Remains to be seen!

-Andrew92

[Wx_Warrior]

18z NAM had it a little better organized....FWIW

[Ivanhater]

18z NAM had it a little better organized....FWIW

Not really concerned about the NAM developing or not, obviously

but it's good to show where the Euro is deriving the moisture and vorticity from, sense there was some confusion where the Euro was originating from.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If anything develops in the NW Caribbean under favorable conditions...it
could easily be very strong...It has the Highest TCHP I have ever seen
Obviously there are other factors but wow to this, jaw-dropping:
Between Now and November, you can Very Easily get a Sub-890 MB Storm
if it stalls...Wilma's record would be shattered Very Easily.
We are in a La Nina just like with Hurricane Mitch 1998.

Disclaimer: I am not forecasting anything in the near future to be sub-890 mb.

Again, HIGHEST TCHP I HAVE EVER SEEN IN MY LIFE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
EASILY SUB-890 MB

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS now showing the low moving through the southern Islands

[Wx_Warrior]

Good catch. Doesn't do much with.