Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

12Z GFS H+90 Here we go



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

Is more slow at the start as it takes until 90.

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_114l.gif

here they come...

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_132l.gif

[HURAKAN]

In one week, Julia to the north, Lisa near the Cape Verde Islands and Matthew in the Caribbean

That's based on the GFS

[cycloneye]

150 hours.

Just east of Grenada.

[Blown Away]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_132l.gif

At 132 is the low shown around 30W the area we are discussing in this thread or the area over Africa right now?

[HURAKAN]

Based on the GFS forecast, the track of the storms in the next 7.5 days

[cycloneye]

168 hours.Enters the SE Caribbean.

[expat2carib]

Doesn't look that good for the Windward, Leeward Islands. The GFS is a 177 hours. How reliable are these time frame models?

[cycloneye]

Gets stronger South of Puerto Rico at 180 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[PTrackerLA]

Yikes look at that high to the north! Looks like this pattern will take any storm in that position into the Gulf.

[ronjon]

Right up the west coast of FL ala Charley.

[CourierPR]

Yikes look at that high to the north! Looks like this pattern will take any storm in that position into the Gulf.

Is that not a trough I see dipicted swinging down from the Midwest? If so, then things could get really problematic for other areas with an eroding high.

[Vortex]

wow!

[ronjon]

336 hrs:

[cycloneye]

The most important aspect of this run is not what it has in the long range,but is another consecutive (I lost count ) run that develops it at low latitude east of the Southern Windwards.

[Vortex]

cycloneeye the gfs has predicted develoment since the 00z run last friday....

[ronjon]

The most important aspect of this run is not what it has in the long range,but is another consecutive (I lost count ) run that develops it at low latitude east of the Southern Windwards.

I agree Luis - what does this make, on every GFS run the last 4 to 5 days. Increasingly likely of a tropical cyclone moving through the caribbean sea toward the Yucatan or Yucatan straits. I'd say based on climo (late sept) that the central or eastern gulf coast is most at risk.

[expat2carib]

The most important aspect of this run is not what it has in the long range,but is another consecutive (I lost count ) run that develops it at low latitude east of the Southern Windwards.

East of...OK. My untrained eyes missed that. I thought it was crossing the Southern Windwards.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, look at that bomb in the gulf...I realize that model predictions
are mostly way off when they are predicting that far out, but they are better
and predicting high pressure ridges. So if that high pressure to the north is
valid, look out!