SW Caribbean Storm? - (Is Invest 94L)

[Ivanhater]

Model support is strong...00z model run break down.

Canadian

Nogaps

Euro

GFS

[jconsor]

I'd give this at least a 50% chance of developing into at least a TD next week (most likely in the Mon-Tue time frame) given the following factors:

1) Favorable MJO pattern beginning next week in the Caribbean
2) Equatorial Rossby wave moving west across the Caribbean, which will help enhance convection (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... N/2010.png)
3) Forecast for a favorable upper pattern with excellent diffluence and low shear
4) Pre-existing convection and convergence zone from Aruba and eastern Colombia into the central Caribbean:



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[GCANE]

FIM is on board with development and track to Honudras / Nicarauga Border in 144 hrs.

[wxman57]

Well, there is SOMETHING there now - a cluster of storms off the NW coast of Venezuela near 13N/73-74W. That definitely increases development chances in the region. Late-season climo and current projected steering currents would suggest a track westward toward Central America or southern Mexico. Gulf of Mexico looks like quite a hostile environment for the next few weeks.

I'd look for the NHC to start mentioning the disturbance in their discussions this afternoon or this evening if the convection persists. I know that they are looking at the same model data we are, and they know what the models have been predicting.

[HURAKAN]

GFS

[Florida1118]

Something to watch for sure. CA may be struck by a hurricane once again. If/when she forms, we will be 3rd in history, which is very impressive.1 more and we will be tied for 2nd, 2 more and we hit second busiest season on record.

[GCANE]

12Z FIM shifts track a bit east of 00Z run.

[Ivanhater]

12z Model rundown..strong support

Euro



Ukie



Nogaps



GFS



Canadian

[wxman57]

What are the odds of a storm developing in the SW Caribbean, tracking WNW-NW and clipping Honduras then moving into Belize, anyway?

[Ivanhater]

What are the odds of a storm developing in the SW Caribbean, tracking WNW-NW and clipping Honduras then moving into Belize, anyway?

I'm going to take a wild guess....that's your preliminary track

[Sanibel]

Models aren't picking up the dry conditions IMO.

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps



18z GFS

[tolakram]

Spin appears to be emerging off the coast.

[wxman57]

What are the odds of a storm developing in the SW Caribbean, tracking WNW-NW and clipping Honduras then moving into Belize, anyway?

I'm going to take a wild guess....that's your preliminary track

Actually, it's sort of the GFS/Euro/Canadian track. Almost the same track as 4-5 other storms this season that hit Belize.

[Florida1118]

700pm NHC Discussion:
A STREAM OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN NE TO PUERTO RICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
14N BETWEEN 72W-81W AS LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
COLOMBIAN LOW PRESSURE AREA.

[Sanibel]

Appears to have a surface reflection. We'll see if it bursts.

[Florida1118]

HPC on board with a closed low NE of Nicaragua by day 6:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA OFF THE COAST OF COLUMBIA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[GCANE]

Looks like a hot-tower fired for about 1 hour duration a couple hours ago.

[GCANE]

Getting a well defined increase in 850mb vorticity.

Not much if any vortcity above.

Looks like a classic bottom-up development.