When will the first 2012 North Atlantic named system form?

#21 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Mar 24, 2012 1:31 pm

I think with the fact that we basically did not have a winter this past season to effectively chill down the GOM sea temps is a significant factor to help lead to early development. Also, with El Nino will gradually evolving as the year progresses, I am getting a sense that we will have early development of the Atlantic basin's s first named tropical cyclone in either the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico in May of this year. Usually in El Nino patterns, we see more home grown cyclones form in the Gulf of Mexico in most cases. I voted for the month of May. It certainly would not surprise me at all if it happens.

hcane27 · #22 Postby **hcane27** » Sat Mar 24, 2012 1:53 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I think with the fact that we basically did not have a winter this past season to effectively chill down the GOM sea temps is a significant factor to help lead to early development. Also, with El Nino will gradually evolving as the year progresses, I am getting a sense that we will have early development of the Atlantic basin's s first named tropical cyclone in either the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico in May of this year. Usually in El Nino patterns, we see more home grown cyclones form in the Gulf of Mexico in most cases. I voted for the month of May. It certainly would not surprise me at all if it happens.

If you use the following scale .....

La Nina - greater than .50 degrees below normal ..... 1
Cool Neutral - between .00 and .50 degrees below normal .... 6
Warm Neutral - between .00 and .50 degrees above normal .... 11
El Nino - greater than .50 degrees above normal .... 1

June Gulf of Mexico formations since 1950 above ..... so a warm-neutral scenario is the best for early-season GOM development ... La Nina and El Nino , not so much

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 3:18 pm

Poll closing is fast approaching on Saturday night at 9:38 PM EDT so those who still have not voted do so. A reminder that the Storm2k 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane season numbers poll will open on April 1rst at 3:00 PM EDT

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Mar 31, 2012 8:43 pm

The poll has closed with the option June 11-20 as the one with the most votes (11). You can still reply here to make comments about this topic.

#25 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu May 10, 2012 4:48 pm

I believe the first window for opportunity is dimly shining in the very long term. As a few of you have noticed, the GFS is showing something after May 20th. Also, the Euro is beginning to show hints of lower pressures in the southern Caribbean. The MJO forecasts are also hinting at a wetter phase in the Atlantic around this time, but I have noticed during the early part of hurricane season in years past that the MJO runs a little on the fast side. That being said, I think the window opens around the 24th or 25th and closes around the 31st or June 1st. I am not expecting anything at this point more than two weeks out, but it may bring much needed rainfall to Cuba, the Bahamas, and/or Florida.

Cyclenall · #26 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu May 17, 2012 9:05 pm

Cyclenall wrote:I predict May 15, 2012 at 5:00 pm EDT when advisories are instated. Future TS Alberto will reach a peak intensity of 50 knots and form in the central GOM. It will make landfall just east of New Orleans LA on May 17, 2012 at 3:30 am EDT and quickly dissipate.

Well this didn't pan out, if it was a full week later I think my chances of being correct would have gone up considerably. Of course I still think this month will have the first TS.

Shuriken · #27 Postby **Shuriken** » Sat May 19, 2012 4:37 am

Today?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 19, 2012 4:44 pm

Cyclenall wrote:I predict May 15, 2012 at 5:00 pm EDT when advisories are instated. Future TS Alberto will reach a peak intensity of 50 knots and form in the central GOM. It will make landfall just east of New Orleans LA on May 17, 2012 at 3:30 am EDT and quickly dissipate.

Wow my friend,almost!!

Cyclenall · #29 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jun 04, 2012 3:24 am

cycloneye wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:I predict May 15, 2012 at 5:00 pm EDT when advisories are instated. Future TS Alberto will reach a peak intensity of 50 knots and form in the central GOM. It will make landfall just east of New Orleans LA on May 17, 2012 at 3:30 am EDT and quickly dissipate.

Wow my friend,almost!!

I was shocked when TS Alberto formed, couldn't believe it. I was 4 days off (not amazing but pretty good), only 5 knots off from the peak intensity (45 knots), and totally off on everything else.

#30 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Jun 16, 2012 4:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:The poll has closed with the option June 11-20 as the one with the most votes (11). You can still reply here to make comments about this topic.

And we all blew that one out the door!! (pun intended) :ggreen:

#31 Postby **gigabite** » Sat Jun 16, 2012 6:33 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The poll has closed with the option June 11-20 as the one with the most votes (11). You can still reply here to make comments about this topic.

And we all blew that one out the door!! (pun intended)

I am sorry but the moon path theory missed by only 2 days and a few degrees of position.

When will the first 2012 North Atlantic named system form?

When the first 2012 North Atlantic named system form?

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