NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[boca]

Their is something brewing down there i don't care what the models say.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[NDG]

One thing for sure, with development or not, is that both ECMWF and GFS bring the moisture up north in a couple of days into Saturday towards, you guessed it, FL.

[Aric Dunn]

Nothing major atm shear is high. but east of belize there is what seems like what might be a small low level circ trying to get going.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Aric Dunn]

well I guess this can here instead. seems the models are trying to do something with ths same area.

for quite a few runs now the cmc continues to pull something out of the gulf/carrib and races across florida and into the atlantic. this run is much more aggressive.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

And now the 12z NOGAPS is as well for the first time.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[jonj2040]

It looks like the CMC takes this area north then crosses Florida and develops to the East much like Beryl but going directly North/ NE with no turn around. nothing form any of the other models on this sight.

[Frank2]

Yes, it appears yet another disturbance is headed for us - that's 3 in the past 3 weeks...

Huh - and here all of the seasonal forecasts are for a below-average season...

We'll see what happens, but it'd be close to or a record if the latest disturbance can be made into an invest before 00Z tonight...

Frank2

[tgenius]

Just in time for start of the season.. another rain maker for south FL... I think my neighborhood has gotten about 11 inches of rain in May.. crazy.

[StarmanHDB]

Although there isn't anything firing around it, over the past few hours I've noticed a definite circulation which has been moving north the along the Yucatan coast. Yes, work is still THAT exciting!

[thundercam96]

Does The System Have A Potential To Become A Tropical Storm?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Does The System Have A Potential To Become A Tropical Storm?

Yes. A 0.0000000000000000000000001% chance.

['CaneFreak]

SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!

Does The System Have A Potential To Become A Tropical Storm?

Yes. A 0.0000000000000000000000001% chance.

[ROCK]

does have some low level convergence and some divergence....shear is high currently....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[floridasun78]

look at area south of cuba their some low level convergence http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Nimbus]

Has that end of front look to it so I stopped by TT to see what the pros thought. I'd give it maybe a full 1 percent chance of developing, more if the shear drops.

[nashrobertsx]

I can't believe these threads are dead tonight (unless I am missing the correct thread). But what is this all about?

LIX AFD Saturday Afternoon:
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL ZONE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRIVEN BY BACKDOOR DYNAMICS AS DEEP TROUGHING
REMAINS PLANTED ACROSS EASTERN U.S. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT AREA OF
CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
IS BEING PROGGED BY MODELS TO DRIFT INTO THE LOWER GULF AND
PERHAPS BECOME AN ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MAY TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND ANY BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOULD THE FRONT MAKE IT OFF THE COAST...THIS
MAY CONFINE MOST OF THE GRADIENT WIND TO THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
AS CONTINENTAL HIGH MAY HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER LAND AREAS
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN UPCOMING WEEK WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE WEDNESDAY THOUGH DAILY ISOLATED
GULF BREEZE CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

[SootyTern]

Miami NWS noticing it, too.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

....THE RIDGE WILL ERODE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, RESULTING IN THE
TRANSPORT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL
ESSENTIALLY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO OUR
WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

[floridasun78]

lix afd what weather office that one?

[Portastorm]

lix afd what weather office that one?

I believe that is the NWSFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge.

[Pearl River]

Yes, it's the NWSFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge based in Slidell

[tailgater]

Has that end of front look to it so I stopped by TT to see what the pros thought. I'd give it maybe a full 1 percent chance of developing, more if the shear drops.

Chances might be increasing if you inclued the BOC and Southern GOM. The upper levels are getting really moist and shear has gotten weaker. as it looks like some weakness or energy drifting westward over the Yucatan.

Check out the MIMIC
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html