The left of Moisture in the Southern Gulf??

[TexWx]

Is it me or does it look like it's all drifting to the east?

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH IN
THIS AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

[ROCK]

Hey Rock I think this could be at the very least a heavy rain and gusty wind event for Texas. I would not at all be surprised to see development out of this. It is blowing up very quickly.

Yeah looks like it's still hanging on...will be watching the vort map for any signs...right now though just a giant blob....

[ROCK]

Yeah NHC had no choice to acknowledge it...10% is a good call

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not an official forecast please use nhc for official. This forecast is not endorsed by storm2k. This system is moving very slowly and has a lot of convection to work with. There is little evidence of shear. I put development chances at 60% prior to moving into Texas/Louisiana. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty wind is likely for much of eastern Texas and potentially Louisiana.

[tailgater]

Nothing at the surface right now that I can see but the winds are pretty light over most of the western Gulf so I don't think this Blob would have a hard time changing that if the convergence increased.

700 and 500 mb vorticity increasing somewhat.

[South Texas Storms]

It's looking pretty good imo. Convergence is there and I think it has about 48 hours over water before it moves into south Texas. It could develop if it starts to get its act together pretty quickly. Let's see how the convection does tonight.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

[TexWx]

What's the general direction of this blob?

[tailgater]

NHC said North but I thought it would go NW, so go with the pros.

[ROCK]

cloud tops are warming tonight.....too be expected IMO....we will see what first light tomorrow brings.

[tailgater]

Yeah, as it collapses tonite we will probably see an MLC form,

Bouy east of Brownsville

[USTropics]

Down to 0% at 8AM TWO

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[PauleinHouston]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

3. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

Interesting...vorticity at 850mb that's pulled away from the coast and convergence improving. MLvl swirl possibly 100 miles or so E of BRO?

[Portastorm]

JB mentioned on Twitter this morning that this area of disturbed weather is essentially in the same location and time which some models last weekend showed Debby to be. I remember several cycles of model runs (and I can't remember which particular model showed the scenario) which showed the energy splitting, one going northeast to Florida and the other west to Texas. Perhaps those model runs weren't so zany after all?!

Weather never ceases to amaze me. Gotta love it!

Meanwhile, here's to a good soaking today from Houston to Austin and anywhere south of that line.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it's trying to curl up. Nothing on radar so far.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

It's firing up.... Need it to move onshore now!

[northjaxpro]

There does seem to be a twist underneath that big mass of convection just off the coast of Corpus Christi. Probably at the mid -levels most likely, but convection continues to increase and expand at this hour.

Running out of time and open Gulf waters before reaching land though. This system has a very small window of opportunity to try to spin up. At least our freinds in parts of Texas and Louisiana will benefit getting some rain from this feature.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This should bring much needed rains to Texas...the models were right about showing 2 areas of disturbed weather one reaching Texas and one (Debby) crossing the Florida Peninsula.

In any case, Texas should get rain hopefully without severe weather.

[Houstonia]

Nice rain and some slightly gusty winds in southwest Houston!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I see hints of an MLC forming with some of the heavy convection:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

A definite rotation is slowly establishing itself.

Velocity radar is showing winds offshore of 20-35 mph: the lightest green color
is about 40 knots aloft but 35 mph at the surface.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes