Complex in Northeast GOM

[SEASON_CANCELED]

poof

[OuterBanker]

Just as JB tweeted. Uncle Sal caught up with it, cement shoes.

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

[NDG]

Unlike yesterday, the tropical wave now has a nice H85 vorticity west of Tampa this morning, with a little bit of convection increasing near it this morning.
The NHC has it right with near 0% of development, the vorticity only has 12-24 hrs over water left. With surface pressures if anything higher than yesterday in the NE GOM.

[Stormcenter]

It definitely has a nice spin to it now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[MGC]

It does have a nice spin to it this morning....with a little convection....should run out of water before it has a chance to really spin up....might increase my rain chances the next couple of days.......MGC

[Stormcenter]

On radar it "looks" like the spin is moving westward.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

It does have a nice spin to it this morning....with a little convection....should run out of water before it has a chance to really spin up....might increase my rain chances the next couple of days.......MGC

[Sanibel]

Another weak, half-baked, dry air intruded system trying to form.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
THIS BROAD DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Zanthe]

Sums up everyone's feelings?

[Stormcenter]

Still hanging around.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[northjaxpro]

Indeed, it is still hanging around in the NE GOM. Dry air is the biggest hindrance with this disturbance, but if this is still hanging around in the next day or two, we may need to start paying more attention to this.

[Dean4Storms]

This weak low has raised my attention this afternoon. Deeper convection is firing out there and it is now influencing our storm motion. NWS Mobile in its morning discussion expected the motion to be north spreading inland as the afternoon wore on. We have just the opposite, convection firing now along the coast and moving south bound. This still has a circulation and with convection now deepening this afternoon it needs monitoring for sure.

Eglin radar.......

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Dean I also noticed the southward motion to the convection as well. If you look at visible and WV imagery, there is definitely a rotation, maybe a very weak surface reflection, but more likely in the mid levels currently. I think if the trend continues with convection re-firing and this is still around the next 24 hours, as we both have previously stated, this will need to be watched more closely. Dry air has been the main problem with this system, but shear appears to be at marginally conducive levels currently in the Eastern GOM.

[northjaxpro]

Also, mods it is time edit the title of this thread again. This time to reflect the current location of the disturbance in the Northeast GOM.

[Dean4Storms]

Just don't see it, convection just can't hang!

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the dry air continues to be the constant hindrance for this system. Convection can't sustain itself with this feature.

[Nimbus]

Another puff of convection this morning over the center. Probably get sheared off though. Its so dry out there that I would only give this about a 1% chance. It would have to pump enough moisture up over the NE gulf to survive and that isn't likely unless the shear drops to almost 0.

[Stormcenter]

Ok maybe it's time to take a closer look at this area again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html