Big wave emerging West Africa - (Is invest 94L)

[Aric Dunn]

Invest 94L will be up in the next couple of days or sooner?

would depend on convection if it build later today or tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

cmc finally showing something.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

cmc finally showing something.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The ridge there looks fairly strong. The timing will be the key here in terms of any weakness that may develop or not and the islands avoid a hit or not.

[Aric Dunn]

latest visible showing what appears to be a go circ just offshore within the deep convection around 9 to 11 N

[cycloneye]

Saved infared image at 17:45 PM UTC.

[Aric Dunn]

Saved infared image at 17:45 PM UTC.

[img]http://oi50.tinypic.com/2qmdkzs.jpg[/ig]

you have a visible you can save ?

[cycloneye]

Saved infared image at 17:45 PM UTC.

[img]http://oi50.tinypic.com/2qmdkzs.jpg[/ig]

you have a visible you can save ?

No still image on visible,but here is a loop before it gets dark there.

http://sat24.com/en/wa

[Aric Dunn]

Saved infared image at 17:45 PM UTC.

[img]http://oi50.tinypic.com/2qmdkzs.jpg[/ig]

you have a visible you can save ?

No still image on visible,but here is a loop before it gets dark there.

http://sat24.com/en/wa

This will work.

[canes04]

This one appears to be well on its way!
Conditions look ideal and we may have our first major early next week.

[Aric Dunn]

This one appears to be well on its way!
Conditions look ideal and we may have our first major early next week.

Key thing it appears the the lower half of the wave is in a better environment and thus the models have been developing something from the northern ( dry half) and eventually recurving it. if the system develops at that low of a latitude it could begin to bend wnw but should not make it to the lat the models already have it before it starts to move NW. should be interesting to see where it takes shape.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting the 12z euro is a good 5 degrees S and e of the 00z run. thats very significant.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 120 hours

[Aric Dunn]

168 hours begins to lift NW.

[cycloneye]

168 hours begins to lift NW.

[wxman57]

Weakening ridge to its north after 120hrs and deepening trof along east U.S. coast should mean recurvature east of the Caribbean and well east of the U.S. Of course, it has to develop first...

[cycloneye]

The 12z Euro ends run with a 968mb hurricane.

[Cyclenall]

Weak ridging north of the MDR should allow for recurvature of any developing system east of the Caribbean over the next week or two. This season is playing out as some had suspected - unfavorable conditions in the MDR, where tropical systems continue to struggle (Earl, Florence, Seven). Have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean and Gulf for close-in development over the coming weeks.

When Ernesto screwed up, I declared season cancel on the tropics for anything interesting or worth watching from someone who doesn't live near the tropics. I haven't been watching since, looks incredibly boring and the Euro 240 hours out continues that. Both La Nina's and El Nino's stink! We're in neutral conditions right now and its like this? Goodness! I see you had Earl on the brain, yeah the 2004 Earl was similar to Ernesto so I understand .

[cycloneye]

Weak ridging north of the MDR should allow for recurvature of any developing system east of the Caribbean over the next week or two. This season is playing out as some had suspected - unfavorable conditions in the MDR, where tropical systems continue to struggle (Earl, Florence, Seven). Have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean and Gulf for close-in development over the coming weeks.

When Ernesto screwed up, I declared season cancel on the tropics for anything interesting or worth watching from someone who doesn't live near the tropics. I haven't been watching since, looks incredibly boring and the Euro 240 hours out continues that. Both La Nina's and El Nino's stink! We're in neutral conditions right now and its like this? Goodness! I see you had Earl on the brain, yeah the 2004 Earl was similar to Ernesto so I understand .

A 968 mb hurricane is not boring at all if someone is a tropical weather follower that likes to track hurricanes at open sea.

[Riptide]

Weak ridging north of the MDR should allow for recurvature of any developing system east of the Caribbean over the next week or two. This season is playing out as some had suspected - unfavorable conditions in the MDR, where tropical systems continue to struggle (Earl, Florence, Seven). Have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean and Gulf for close-in development over the coming weeks.

When Ernesto screwed up, I declared season cancel on the tropics for anything interesting or worth watching from someone who doesn't live near the tropics. I haven't been watching since, looks incredibly boring and the Euro 240 hours out continues that. Both La Nina's and El Nino's stink! We're in neutral conditions right now and its like this? Goodness! I see you had Earl on the brain, yeah the 2004 Earl was similar to Ernesto so I understand .

A 968 mb hurricane is not boring at all if someone is a tropical weather follower that likes to track hurricanes at open sea.

Also, the upper-level pattern on the 12z Euro does not scream automatic recurve; not that it matters much because it will change many times as we get closer. You can't expect the MDR to be that active in Early/Mid August, things will start ramping up quite quickly now.

[Hurricaneman]

Im starting to believe this is going to come off the coast near 10N which is something to consider and attached to the ITCZ which might delay development and this really bears watching in the islands , this may even be an invest by tomorrow

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