West-Central Caribbean Tropical Cyclone (Is Invest 99L)

[KUEFC]

Wow horrible run for Carribean and florida

[Hurricaneman]

The global models continue to show lower than normal pressure across the Western/SW Caribbean area lat next week so something could form but details on intensity and track are obviously just a guess at this point. Certainly will be interesting to see if models generally start to pull in the development timeframe with each subsequent run. I would say given the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and FIM are all hinting at something in their long-range forecast I would say there is decent chance some disturbed area will get going by mid to end of next week. Whether it actually can develop though remains to be seen.

Update: 12Z GFS showing the system. Here we are in the very long-range at 372 hours (top image). But the low starts to form at 228 hours now (where the black circle is in the SW Caribbean) consolidates and slowly pulls north. A very classic late October track:

http://imageshack.us/a/img818/4387/12zg ... mbvort.gif
http://imageshack.us/a/img402/4387/12zg ... mbvort.gif

Track this run is kind of a hybrid of Charley and Wilma, but I'm not really concerned, but if this starts showing development at less than 5 days than I may raise an eyebrow

[cycloneye]

If you look closely at the 12z loop,things begin to take shape in 192 hours with low pressure North of Panama. But again is long range and what 06z had as a Lenny type track is on 12z a South Florida landfall. In other words,take everything long range has with grain of salt in terms of development and track and when you see something on the 144 timeframe,then a more credible scenario can be trusted. I only post them only for information to the members.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[KUEFC]

If you look closely at the 12z loop,things begin to take shape in 192 hours with low pressure North of Panama. But again is long range and what 06z had as a Lenny type track is on 12z a South Florida landfall. In other words,take everything long range has with grain of salt in terms of development and track and when you see something on the 144 timeframe,then a more credible scenario can be trusted. I only post them only for information to the members.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Much appretiated

Quick question, watching that link you posted, how come after so many hours the image seems to switch to a more basic animation? is that due to it being in the long range?

[cycloneye]

If you look closely at the 12z loop,things begin to take shape in 192 hours with low pressure North of Panama. But again is long range and what 06z had as a Lenny type track is on 12z a South Florida landfall. In other words,take everything long range has with grain of salt in terms of development and track and when you see something on the 144 timeframe,then a more credible scenario can be trusted. I only post them only for information to the members.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Much appretiated

Quick question, watching that link you posted, how come after so many hours the image seems to switch to a more basic animation? is that due to it being in the long range?

Yes,the resolution amplifies as it goes to long range after 192 hours.

[KUEFC]

If you look closely at the 12z loop,things begin to take shape in 192 hours with low pressure North of Panama. But again is long range and what 06z had as a Lenny type track is on 12z a South Florida landfall. In other words,take everything long range has with grain of salt in terms of development and track and when you see something on the 144 timeframe,then a more credible scenario can be trusted. I only post them only for information to the members.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Much appretiated

Quick question, watching that link you posted, how come after so many hours the image seems to switch to a more basic animation? is that due to it being in the long range?

Yes,the resolution amplifies as it goes to long range after 192 hours.

Thank you

[Hurricane Alexis]

The track depicted by the 12z GFS looks like Irene from 1999.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF starts developing a broad low in the SW Caribbean at 120 hours and has it moving NNW through 168 hours towards the NW Caribbean gradually consolidating. Image below is early next week (168 hours). I would say that is bringing the timeframe in quite a bit or is this a different low?

[cycloneye]

Now we are talking about a much more credible timeframe (144 hours) that the 12z Euro starts to develop a low pressure. But we now have to see followups by this model in next runs to see if it continues to show it.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 192 hours, creeping northward slowly in the Western Caribbean:

[Hurricaneman]

Now we are talking about a much more credible timeframe (144 hours) that the 12z Euro starts to develop a low pressure. But we now have to see followups by this model in next runs to see if it continues to show it.

http://oi45.tinypic.com/a0gjsy.jpg

You could even go as early as 96hr on the 12zEuro which has a low forming near Houndoras at that time which is definately in a time frame that would make it a possible formation, this could be a threat to Cuba in the long run, I'm not going to speculate on anything farther north like the gulf coast

[gatorcane]

The Euro run ends with it turning slight NE south of Cuba but way out at 240 hours so who knows. Development possibilities next week for a SW Carib / W Carib system are going up

[cycloneye]

The Euro runs with it turning slight NE south of Cuba but way out at 240 hours so who knows. Development possibilities next week for a SW Carib / W Carib system are going up

http://imageshack.us/a/img690/7757/12ze ... 0mbslp.gif

In my book,the scale from 1 thru 10 for development went up to 4. We need followup by Euro and GFS has to lower the timeframe and the scale will go much more upwards.

[KUEFC]

Is it not just as possible that the euro could drop this again? after all havent people been saying its performing poorly this year?

[Hurricaneman]

Is it not just as possible that the euro could drop this again? after all havent people been saying its performing poorly this year?

It could very well drop this or delay it or the GFS will come aroud to a earlier development like the Euro, it still needs to be watched in any case

[gatorcane]

The FIM model continues to show the low trying to organize more north of where the GFS and ECMWF think the low will form, closer to Jamaica. Low forms at 180 hours but doesn't get too strong then drifts slowly NE in the very long-range

Link to 12Z FIM loop:
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2012101512&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1

I wonder what the 18Z GFS will do?

[floridasun78]

look down sw carribbean their cloud building already http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/ir4-l.jpg

[KUEFC]

Developed again by 18z gfs but doesn't move an awful lot?

[cycloneye]

Developed again by 18z gfs but doesn't move an awful lot?

In this run,GFS starts at 264 hours.



Run ends this way.

[Cyclenall]

It would be funny if no TC formed after this thread was made.

Being that this season has been "overall" boring, its extremely likely that this potential Caribbean system will be extremely boring. Therefore, I'm not amused . That individual who used to be "CapeVerdeWave" was on point in his climatology post. Also, if this doesn't form or doesn't become a major hurricane and hits the US at said intensity, the US will have escaped another year from a major hurricane which if said to me or others five years ago, my reaction would be as if I was starring at an alien.