West PAC - disturbance near 140E (Is Invest 96W)

[vrif]

Latest 12Z run, EC/GFS/JMA, has this system heading straight for Hainan Island, but CMC has the system heading northwards into Taiwan.

[dexterlabio]

GFS 18Z has it going towards Southern China...and this time not a weak low..

[dexterlabio]

GFS 00z has a strong typhoon tracking towards Batanes-Taiwan area...and that's not in the long range anymore. the next model runs will be interesting to see if this trend keeps up..

[vrif]

Looking at the 0Z run. EC still predicts this TC to move towards Hainan Island. GFS has it veering towards Taiwan instead. Whether the storm will be weak or strong, when it is rounding the subtropical high, may determine its future course. The models forecast the subtropical high to shift eastwards towards Japan.

Time to wait and see.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS at 177 hr


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I hope this won't hit any landmass so that it won't cause that much damage. It can also be more fun to track if this stays at the sea! If it stays at the sea, this is the track (I predicted this a long time ago):


Utor last 2006 before made landfall in the Visayas. It caused the postponement of the ASEAN Summit in Cebu, which was supposed to be at Dec. 9, 2006 (moved to Jan 2007).

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yep we're certainly in the near time frame in model terms and that GFS 00z really is a concern. 06z trickling out now.

If this storm does indeed form it will be another epic fail for ECMWF, I think someone should just unplug that model when it comes to spotting tropical cyclone formations...

[RL3AO]

GFS starts to develop the area (145E) in the next 36 hours. Thinking we will have an invest sometime today.

[RobWESTPACWX]

06Z GFS output for Tuesday morning.. still going strong this run.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think when a Invest is declared on this one we just change the title of this forum and not create a whole new one. Especially for archiving purposes. Sound good?

[RL3AO]

Normally we would just lock this thread and start one in Active Storms, as we would with an Atlantic system.

Although, I wouldn't have a problem just renaming this thread and moving it to active storms.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Normally we would just lock this thread and start one in Active Storms, as we would with an Atlantic system.

Although, I wouldn't have a problem just renaming this thread and moving it to active storms.

I like that idea too, if it forms that is!

It's been quite a roller coaster tracking this in the models!

[RL3AO]

Its not very often we have a thread on a WPac system this long before it becomes an invest.

[Blown Away]

GFS at 177 hr

WOW, that would be incredible...I hope it doesn't pan out for Taiwan's sake...I do love that graphic, is there a link to get that view?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good point! We can just rename it then. A lot of attention on this one.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest pass on ASCAT, winds picking up. A little disturbed but nothing to get all to nuts over yet.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS at 177 hr

WOW, that would be incredible...I hope it doesn't pan out for Taiwan's sake...I do love that graphic, is there a link to get that view?

For the map?

[RobWESTPACWX]

GFS at 177 hr

WOW, that would be incredible...I hope it doesn't pan out for Taiwan's sake...I do love that graphic, is there a link to get that view?

For the map?

Thats a Wundermap output, cool tool, you can over lay model, sats a ton of information if your in the states too...

I think he overlayed the track forecast on top of that though.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

For the forecast, additional stuff, etc., I used Paint.NET.

I'm so excited to track an Invest!!!

[RobWESTPACWX]

At the very least JMA has stamped a LPA in the PH Sea on the 48hr fcst.