Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The Canadian model is also aggresive on development

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Hurricaneman]

The Canadian model is also aggresive on development

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Doesn't look all that different but looks maybe a little faster than the GFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane Alexis]

Latest Euro shows a strengthening cyclone at the end. You can track the wave all the way from when it comes off Africa in about 2 days.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[chaser1]

Yeah, when the EURO starts showing a system out in the long range and repetative runs continue to show a tropical system, that tends to grab my attention too. Question is will the long wave pattern switch back to a more retrograded trough down the Mississippi delta again, or will it hang a trough along or East of the Conus as has been the case as of late.....

[supercane4867]

GFS esemble control is especially excited showing 3 storms

[bamajammer4eva]

Fall pattern may be already setting in?? NWS Forecast based on models would cause re-curvatures??

Here is the forecast for Coffee county, AL in the SE Corner of AL just West of Dothan. This is unusual for August.

[USTropics]

all the 0z model runs appear to be on board for development in the next 5-8 days.

CMC (GEM) 180 hours:


GFS 180 hours:


GFS Ensembles 180 hours:


FIM 180 hours:


NAVGEM 144 hours (for ROCK):


The ECMWF run can be referenced a few posts above from Hurricane Alexis.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS.Very close to NE states. 2001 watch this up there.

[Alyono]

looks like the Long Island express... just a touch to the east

[gatorcane]

all the 0z model runs appear to be on board for development in the next 5-8 days

Yes development seems to be a definite at this point. Details regarding how strong and whether it impacts any land areas starting with the Leewards are the next questions that we are all wondering about.

But we won't have those answers for quite a while as this system looks like it will be about 8-10 days from potentially impacting the Leewards and another 5+ days after that before any potential U.S. impacts.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[storm4u]

0z gfs and 6z gfs are close to impacting the northeast watching for now but its in lala land

[cycloneye]

The pouch is almost entirely in the water and at this point looks good.

[meriland23]

06 GFS seems to think in 348 hrs, a system with about 977mb pressure will hit the NE or very close to (Maine)



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

It agrees for the most part with 00Z GFS @ 384 hrs though this system looks slower and slightly stronger on the 00z run




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[meriland23]

Hmm, I thought mine posted on the global model runs discussion haha oh well

[cycloneye]

Hmm, I thought mine posted on the global model runs discussion haha oh well

Yes,you made your post at the global models thread but was moved to this one as the models develop this pouch.

[cycloneye]

The latest update by the pouch group.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P25L.html

[TheStormExpert]

What does the overall steering pattern look like?

[toad strangler]

384 hours out

[storm4u]

I wonder if this gets labeled 96l soon

[Gustywind]

Pouch group analysis.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P25L.html

SYNOPSIS 2013082500

P25L
12N, 8W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Large pouch. OW is not well-organized or collocated with the pouch center during the first couple days; hence the erratic OW values in the time series. By Day 3, P25L has moderate OW, but it is gaining latitude. On Day 5, ECMWF is hinting at weakening.

GFS: Like ECMWF, OW increases during the five days, but the difference is that GFS does not gain as much latitude, ending at 12N rather than 17N at 120 hours.

UKMET: (Not part of early consensus) Track is between the more northern ECMWF and more southern GFS.

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN: (Not part of early consensus) By Day 3, HWRF-GEN develops two additional ITCZ pouches between P23L and P25L, with the western one quickly dissipating but the eastern one persisting. By 96 hours, this eastern "extra" pouch is close to and the same size as P25L, which has shrunk. I refer to these pouches as "extra" because (1) they are generated by HWRF-GEN in the forecast (future, not analysis) and (2) I do not track them as pouches.