2015 Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

GFS at 240 hours has some bad weather for Louisiana but not a storm like ECMWF.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian has the storm at 240 hours as well

[Stormcenter]

I know that is just crazy to think but is it really possible? A TS in the GOM in March headed toward LA. I'm sure they will drop it soon.

[Brent]

Well looky here:

[KatDaddy]

Some pre-season model humor while we wait for this darn Winter to end

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF shifts west and has this low recurving near the Florida east coast at 216 hours. GFS shifts to the right with a quick recurve on it's latest run. Needless to say very different solutions here:

[crownweather]

it's going to be really interesting to see if this even comes close to fruition or if this is model early season antics. Part of me thinks that this is a possibility given the setup of a forecast high pressure setting up to the NE, old front lingering for a few days and the very warm waters there. Yet, another part of me is skeptical since we've been led down this road MANY times before.

12Z ECMWF shifts west and has this low recurving near the Florida east coast at 216 hours. GFS shifts to the right with a quick recurve on it's latest run:

[HURRICANELONNY]

Seems alot of El Nino years there is a early sub-trop or tropical system then the dead season.

[northjaxpro]

Well, given the upcoming pattern, and the ssts being a bit warmer than usual for this time of year in the SW Atlantic, I would not be shocked to see if this feature tries to spin up. Could be another early season (May) entity. The interesting thing is that the models have hinted at this possible system for the past few runs going back to Saturday. I will really be interested to see tonight's model runs. But yeah, an interesting situation. I particularly will not take this lightly. Remember, T.S. Beryl in May 2012, ironically currently featured in my avatar, which made history in my neck of the woods at that time.

[gatorcane]

Global model guidance looks in reasonably good agreement that a trough of low pressure will form in the Bahamas next week, left behind by the strong frontal system to push off the Eastern seaboard of the United States and this trough looks to spawn some kind of low that may spin up into a subtropical or tropical cyclone. I checked the GFS and ECMWF ensembles to see what they show and the MSLP pressure anomalies show lowering pressures over the Bahamas as well, though they don't spin up a consolidated low.

The situation bears watching as we actually have a chance of an pre-season, named system out of this, which if happens, would be 3-4 weeks before the climatological start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

[chaser1]

Seems alot of El Nino years there is a early sub-trop or tropical system then the dead season.

"Bingo" Correct on both point. Not to say that its a given that this will be an entirely dead season but true enough, El Nino seasons are often earmarked by early season subtropical (or tropical) systems. Its not uncommon for things to then shut down for 1, 2, or 3 months before producing activity in the heart of the season. That's one of the reasons why I didn't consider it going out on a limb when I mentioned in my season estimate that I thought there would be one or two early season storms. 'Course, that has yet to happen, and may very well not...though the models are starting to tease that it may.

[TheStormExpert]

Talked about my opinions on this in the Florida Thread since the 12z Euro run showed it coming real close to the East Coast of Florida before recurving. But I'm only interested because the Euro shows it and we saw how badly the GFS did last May/June with the early season "Phantom Storms"(and according to Levi Cowan @ Tropical Tidbits it's kind of starting to do it again!). With the SE U.S. Coast/West Atlantic possibly being the most favorable region IMO all season once again, along with yet again warmer than average SST's it Bears Watching IMO. Shear is one of the biggest possible inhibitors.

[chaser1]

For the moment, the 18Z GFS run eventually winds this low down to about 987mb in roughly 120 hours, as its approaching Nova Scotia. The depiction thus far however would appear entirely non tropical. Looks like the GFS might have backed off the following weeks' low; a feature forming out of the decaying front lying to the south and east of Florida. Lets see if the 0Z carries it with a bit more gusto or not.

[tolakram]

Right now only the upgraded Euro spins this up while the current Euro shows what might be a weak or small area of low pressure, both at about 204 hours. At the end of the run the new Euro has a 1004MB low east of SC, south of the outer banks. GFS is remarkably similar to the new Euro ... let's hope they didn't break the Euro.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is showing the low just off the Florida East coast moving slowly NNW paralleling the East coast of Florida. Now we are at 180 hours so timeframe is coming in and looks like the chances of some low forming next week over the Bahamas is increasing:

[crownweather]

Well, the 18Z GFS model certainly is tropical cyclone happy. Forms our low pressure system near Florida's east coast on Tuesday of next week. Initially pulls it out but then is blocked to the north and sent westward. Also noticed that the GFS model may be "handing off" some of the moisture to quickly to the east-northeast from hours 216 to 240.

18Z GFS model also forms a TC in the western Caribbean in the 300 plus hour range. Definitely highly suspect of this and don't believe it at this point.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS model also forms a TC in the western Caribbean in the 300 plus hour range. Definitely highly suspect of this and don't believe it at this point.

Heads up to the EPAC watchers since the GFS usually sniffs out the first EPAC storm but initially puts it in the wrong basin.

[NDG]

0z GFS

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF, recurve just off Florida and SE US coastline - but the important point is that also continues to shows development. In fact all the globals that I see are showing something possibly forming:

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS continues to show the system, even more consolidated, lifting it north out of the Southern Bahamas and in a position around where this graphics shows it where it meanders and stall for many days...before finally getting booted out to sea: