Twave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015



TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N24W TO 18N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL
MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N25W. THE GYRE AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 22W-27W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 18W-30W.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, this will likely be designated Invest 98L very shortly.

[knotimpaired]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015



TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N24W TO 18N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL
MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N25W. THE GYRE AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 22W-27W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 18W-30W.

Hi Gusty,

Well it is that time of the year to reunite with all of you. Gusty, Luis, Ms Bee this wave worries me. I wonder if it might go straight into a depression or storm. That is moot right now. I am more concerned about the size.

K

[GeneratorPower]

This wave is huge. It's just creeping into view on the ATL wide view satellite and compared to Danny it's gigantic.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015



TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N24W TO 18N26W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL
MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N25W. THE GYRE AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 22W-27W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 18W-30W.

Hi Gusty,

Well it is that time of the year to reunite with all of you. Gusty, Luis, Ms Bee this wave worries me. I wonder if it might go straight into a depression or storm. That is moot right now. I am more concerned about the size.

K

Hi my friend!!! Very glad to see you there! Always a pleasure to read all your posts Yeah you're right agree with you! We have to follow it carefully. Size is truly amazing but. Stay with us, Cycloneye will give us the best on that, he is our Superman

[Gustywind]

This wave is huge. It's just creeping into view on the ATL wide view satellite and compared to Danny it's gigantic.

You can add a pic to show us what you say. We will enjoy to share that with you as this wave seems pretty impressive for now...

[USTropics]

Here's an animated .gif I created from the RAMDIS satellite loop. Nice spin and robust convection:

[TheStormExpert]

IMO this wave is moving way too fast to develop into much.

[tolakram]

Recurves east of Florida. (222 hours, Weatherbell)

Looks identical to the early Danny runs.

Let me guess the GFS.

Sorry I didn't say, that was for the euro, and now the later euro runs, just like the Danny runs, are showing weak and dissipating before the islands. I'm not sure what this means other that it is going to face similar conditions to Danny. Maybe we'll get a second major?

[Blown Away]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave near and south of
the Cape Verde Islands has become a little better organized since
yesterday. Additional slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while the wave moves quickly westward
at about 25 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

How is this not an Invest?

[gatorcane]

Look how fast it is forecasted to move across the MDR (orange cone):

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave near and south of
the Cape Verde Islands has become a little better organized since
yesterday. Additional slow development of this system is possible
during the next several days while the wave moves quickly westward
at about 25 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

How is this not an Invest?

Maybe our friends of the NHC are too much focused on Hurrincane Danny and forgot this area...

[SFLcane]

Will likely struggle to develop at that speed.

[gatorcane]

Latest EC really like this showing a pretty intense hurricane recurving with a possible threat to Bermuda in the long-range

[gatorcane]

EC shows this at 961MB by hour 216 with a threat to Bermuda.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, this one definitely has my interest now that Danny is on his way out....Even if it does recurve, Bermuda could be in the path. Although calling for a for sure recurve is silly at this point.

[gatorcane]

should be invest 98l soon you would think.

Coming into view now on the NHC wide view right side:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its almost looking like a TD

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Blown Away]

I like these 25 mph+ moving systems...

Based on the track, this is a very well endowed system!!

[Hammy]

I'm surprised this isn't higher percentage, and especially that it's not an invest yet--it looks fairly close to developing at this point.