Tropical Wave emerging Africa: (Is Invest 91L)

[abajan]

... I am pretty sure they will have no choice but to reintroduce this wave on the next Outlook at 8pm EST.

Good call!
Honestly, I don't know why they removed it in the first place but they're the experts.

[Extratropical94]

5 day code orange:

A well-organized tropical wave will move off of the west coast of
Africa several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands
later today. Conditions appear conducive for gradual development
over the weekend and into early next week as the system moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
later today. This system has some potential for slow development as
it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[gatorcane]

Latest image - no floater on it yet but I suspect RAMMB will move one over there sometime today. Should be our next invest within the next day or two. You can see it along the coast of Africa and should be completely over water in the next 12-24 hours.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, this one looks like the next gamplayer. The only question is, which direction will it move after it develops?

[cycloneye]

DANNY-ERIKA #2 here? Pulses in MDR and when it gets close to islands weakens.

[alienstorm]

Suppose to head west at 15 to 20 but the question is how far will it make it.

[emeraldislenc]

Any model support and how far west?

[gatorcane]

7 day positions from the 00Z ECMWF and GFS models, between Leewards and Africa with the ECMWF more to the right and slower:

[Blown Away]

DANNY-ERIKA #2 here? Pulses in MDR and when it gets close to islands weakens.

Hard to argue against that! The models continue to show weak low pressures, yeah some deepen for a brief period, but generally nothing but weak/sheared/dry air influenced low's out there... I think 2016 will return to more normal conditions than we have seen for a few years, this El Nino needed to finally purge through the atmosphere...

[abajan]

DANNY-ERIKA #2 here? Pulses in MDR and when it gets close to islands weakens.

Hard to argue against that! The models continue to show weak low pressures, yeah some deepen for a brief period, but generally nothing but weak/sheared/dry air influenced low's out there... I think 2016 will return to more normal conditions than we have seen for a few years, this El Nino needed to finally purge through the atmosphere...

Actually, all hell may break loose (weather wise) next hurricane season because La Niñas often follow El Niños!

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

Weak convection but good spin.


I think it is an entity.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is currently moving off of the west coast of
Africa. This system has some potential for slow development
as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015


TROPICAL WAVE OVER WESTERN AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 08N13W TO 17N13W
MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
BETWEEN 11W-16W AND IS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE. 850 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM IS LOCATED NEAR THE WAVE FROM 07N-12W. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 13W-18W.

[Sanibel]

Looks like an ocean recurver on that track.

[otowntiger]

Historically and climatologically most of them, in fact a large majority of them, do turn north before hitting land. Some do hit the islands, but even fewer still hit the CONUS.

[Hammy]

Euro dropped development on the latest run.

[emeraldislenc]

Have the other models dropped it?

[hcane27]

all of them have

[cycloneye]

IMO,they will go down with the 5 day % at 8 PM after nothing from ECMWF.