Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 93L)

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A tropical wave located just offshore the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized shower activity. Some gradual development of
this wave is possible by early next week while it moves generally
westward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[gatorcane]

Up to 40%

2. A tropical wave located just offshore the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized shower activity. Some gradual development of
this wave is possible by early next week while it moves generally
westward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[gatorcane]

Interresting to note! Gatorcane , could you post the link related to the GFS? Thanks.

Look at the UKMET on this system:



06Z GFS into the Southern Leewards and weaker:

[wxman57]

There's not much left of it now, convection-wise.

[emeraldislenc]

The convection looks weak now but it is up to 40 per cent. It will be interesting!

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is stronger with this wave showing a tropical storm, down to 1003MB but it turns it due north just east of the Leewards. It later goes on to develop this into a hurricane over the subtropical Central Atlantic.

150 hours heading north into a huge weakness in the Central Atlantic:

[gatorcane]

MU looks to make this into major in the long-range. Would be a big ACE pumper for the ATL.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located between west Africa and the Cape Verde
Islands is producing minimal shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become favorable for some gradual
development of this wave by early next week while it moves generally
westward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is
producing minimal shower activity. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become favorable for some gradual development of this
wave by early next week while it moves generally westward across the
tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS like the 12Z ECMWF have backed off on development on their last runs but the UKMET/GEM/NAVGEM continue to show development.

I took a look at the area and don't see much. Looks like an elongated trough oriented WSW to ENE. where development might happen anywhere along the axis.

Models are notorious for trying to spin up things too quickly in these situations. While development is possible, it probably will take many days.

I circled where I think the trough is located below:

[blp]

It will also probably get carried by the low level flow more westerly than indicated by the models. The models have had a left bias all year developing systems too quickly.

[Gustywind]

Waching System Off of Africa
The Weather Channel

Posted: Sep 12 2015 06:15 AM EDT

Updated: Sep 12 2015 06:15 AM EDT

This is the time of year where storms that come off of Africa need to be watch for possible tropical development.


http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... -of-africa

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N25W TO 17N24W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH LOW AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING S OF 14N
BETWEEN 19W-27W. WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST LARGELY
INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N27W TO 17N24W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH LOW AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGHING S OF
14N BETWEEN 21W-30W. WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST LARGELY
INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND MUCH OF THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 22W-29W.

[TheStormExpert]

8am TWO. Now 10/50.

A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is
currently producing minimal shower activity. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become favorable for some gradual
development of this wave next week while it moves generally westward
to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 30%-60%

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower activity while
it moves westward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next several days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[TheStormExpert]

Should see an Invest out of this real soon now.

[Sanibel]

ITCZ finally looks latent.

[ouragans]

Should see an Invest out of this real soon now.

How come it's not an Invest yet? Generally, over 20 pct at 48 hrs, it's an Invest...

[cycloneye]

Should see an Invest out of this real soon now.

How come it's not an Invest yet? Generally, over 20 pct at 48 hrs, it's an Invest...

Is not automatic that they designate a invest with that % but I can see it soon.They have to get a low pressure to do the best track.