Tropical Wave south of CV Islands (Is INVEST 98L)

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the lid is about to get lifted for awhile.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Nice satellite images here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/eatl.html

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/764847070654050304

[Kazmit]

Looks like the Cape Verde part of the season has begun.

Yep. As we've seen with Earl, there could be quite a few Cape Verde 'canes this season.

[NDG]

12z GFS shows not much development with this system but 12z CMC is on board with the Euro.

[Hurricaneman]

I think this will have a chance at Fiona and weaken around the central Atlantic but after that I do believe this will have to be watched even though models don't do much farther west these can sneak up. Gloria in 1985 was one of those where it became a tropical storm but really didn't intensify much until 50W so could this be like that one stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[cycloneye]

Nothing from NHC at 2 PM TWO.

[weathaguyry]

I think this will have a chance at Fiona and weaken around the central Atlantic but after that I do believe this will have to be watched even though models don't do much farther west these can sneak up. Gloria in 1985 was one of those where it became a tropical storm but really didn't intensify much until 50W so could this be like that one stay tuned

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I agree, and also the water temperatures are nearly 80 degrees near Long Island, so I would keep an eye on this even if it doesn't develop in the near future, it could be something to watch when it gets into the Western Atlantic

[psyclone]

This disturbance looks decent and it is that time of the year. The trailing wave looks good too. We'll likely be tracking something fairly soon.

[TheStormExpert]

Nothing from NHC at 2 PM TWO.

Likely waiting for a few more Euro runs to see if it continues to show it. Still surprised nonetheless.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters take:

NHC was not highlighting any Atlantic tropical weather threat areas in their 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook on Sunday morning. However, two of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the European and GFS models--showed that a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday night does have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph into the central Atlantic. In their 00Z Sunday runs, about 30 - 50% of the members of the European and GFS model ensemble forecasts predicted development of this system into a tropical depression late this week.

Working against development of this wave will be the fact that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Western Pacific. When the MJO is located there, we can expect to see increased typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific, but compensating sinking air and surface high pressure over the tropical Atlantic, with reduced chances of tropical cyclone development there. Dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will also likely interfere with Atlantic development this week, though the SAL is currently less prominent over the tropical Atlantic than it was early in August.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... commenttop

[gatorcane]

Euro still showing some development through 96 hours the run is out so far. The model seems to have locked in on a track/intensity for this invest as the past three runs have shown the same. Time for NHC to mention this area in the next outlook.

[chaser1]

Euro still showing some development through 96 hours the run is out so far. The model seems to have locked in on a track/intensity for this invest as the past three runs have shown the same. Time for NHC to mention this area in the next outlook.

Yep, and continuing to do so at 120 hrs. CMC also keeps a system but is seeming to overplay the trough in the mid Atlantic and holds this system much further to the east

[gatorcane]

Euro with a huge weakness developing over the central Atlantic to scoop this system up.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro with a huge weakness developing over the central Atlantic to scoop this system up.

Yep there's the trough right when you need it!

[SFLcane]

Euro with a huge weakness developing over the central Atlantic to scoop this system up.

Lol the 10+ year magic trap door opens up and says come with me my friend.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Euro with a huge weakness developing over the central Atlantic to scoop this system up.

Lol the 10+ year magic trap door opens up and says come with me my friend.

The ensemble members for the GFS/CMC show this wave and the one behind it getting scooped up out to sea for the most part. A few of them continue to trek westward.

[chaser1]

Euro with a huge weakness developing over the central Atlantic to scoop this system up.

Lol the 10+ year magic trap door opens up and says come with me my friend.

May yes...., or maybe not? 192hr looks to me as if the system might be trapped off the CONUS, meanwhile I'm seeing that a new 594mb ridge pushing out and SW from N. Africa steering the two behind - westward.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=240

[hurrtracker79]

I see the same thing, new ridge coming from the NE Atlantic to steer the two behind this one more west

Euro with a huge weakness developing over the central Atlantic to scoop this system up.

Lol the 10+ year magic trap door opens up and says come with me my friend.

May yes...., or maybe not? 192hr looks to me as if the system might be trapped off the CONUS, meanwhile I'm seeing that a new 594mb ridge pushing out and SW from N. Africa steering the two behind - westward.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=240

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro showing low shear through 192-240 hrs in the MDR. But also showing higher shear in the gulf.