Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

A little surprised NHC didn't mentioned this area that emerges West Africa on day 5.

Agreed as model consensus has this leaving Africa around 8/30.

I guess they are going to see the 00z package of model runs and then go from there.

[RL3AO]

It may be tracked internally but not put into the TWO yet. If its 0/10% it's not made public but it's tracked at NHC for verification purposes. Once it gets to 0/20% it goes into the TWO.

[cycloneye]

It may be tracked internally but not put into the TWO yet. If its 0/10% it's not made public but it's tracked at NHC for verification purposes. Once it gets to 0/20% it goes into the TWO.

Interesting to know how they work the outlooks.

[cycloneye]

A look at the wave now in Nigeria with the convection flaring.It will pulse while it moves thru land.

http://en.sat24.com/en/af#

[Gustywind]

A look at the wave now in Nigeria with the convection flaring.It will pulse while it moves thru land.

http://en.sat24.com/en/af#

that's the 100000 $ question Cycloneye. We have to wait and see as usual.

[LarryWx]

Hmmm models depict quite the monster. I'm skeptical however because of two possible key factors -

1.) The high latitude which the system emerges from Africa.

Many storms that became TC's in the far E ATL that went on to come all of the way to or very near the Conus first became a TC within the 13-15N range. However, I could find only one on record that traversed over the N CV's or to the north of the CV islands and got to the conus: one in 1893. The consensus is projecting this to either cross the N CV's or go north of the CV's. So, it will be interesting to watch the track if it does become a TC just off Africa. It wouldn't surprise me if this comes across/near the CV's closer to 14-15N.

[Hurricaneman]

This may need to be watched in Bermuda if the Euro is anywhere close to correct and if the GFS keeps showing a threat to the east coast 7 days from now in the models then we may have to watch the NC coast to the NEUS and Atlantic Canada

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[cycloneye]

Similar as the 18z run,the 00z GFS emerges West Africa on the 31rst in the same latitude.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has this after 132hrs going almost WSW in the central Atlantic, that doesn't make one comfortable if the ridge appears farther west

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[cycloneye]

Completely west since leaving West Africa. (144 hours)

[cycloneye]

A slight westsouthwest movement.

[Hurricaneman]

the 0zGFS basically starts this around 20N right off of Africa and moves WSW to around 16N at 40W. If the ridge is that strong we may have a problem farther west including the Lesser Antilles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[cycloneye]

More westsouthwest.Ummm.

[cycloneye]

Moving west and getting stronger.

[cycloneye]

963 mbs and mainly west.

[Hurricaneman]

963 mbs and mainly west.

Around 228 there is a weakness for this to go up and out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[cycloneye]

Begins to gain some latitude.

[Hurricaneman]

The weakness is there at 252hrs but it does look like a ridge bridge might be attempting to happen

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[cycloneye]

There it goes.

[Hurricaneman]

As Luis just posted, the 12Z Euro has this as a TD or weak TS moving almost due west near 15 mph along 19N and reaching near 55W on day 10. Here's the 10 day map of North America:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_11.png

This map shows rather stable west Atlantic ridging to its north and NW. This ridging looks stable as opposed to transient to me because of the near stationary very strong (600+ dm) 500 mb ridge centered near 40N, 150W (about halfway between Alaska and Hawaii). This is leading to rather stable troughing in the Rockies and ridging along the CONUS east coast eastward into the Atlantic. IF this were to end up being an accurate prog for day 10, then imo this TC would likely threaten the CONUS east coast ~5-7 days later or ~15-17 days from now or ~9/10-12 fwiw.

So, if I were a betting man, I'd say look out for around 9/10-2 for what is now Pouch 25L to possibly get close to the CONUS east coast.

Another storm that started off of Africa at or above 15N was Ike in 2008 but am not expecting that track as of now but that could change as we get closer

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service