Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z Canadian does not show this system at all. Lets see what the 12Z Euro shows later today.

[abajan]

It's been a while since the Atlantic Basin has seen a real low latitude tropical cyclone (the last at a somewhat low latitude was Tomas '10 I believe). ...

Yes. I recall it well. Hopefully, this isn't a repeat.

[centuryv58]

12Z Canadian does not show this system at all. Lets see what the 12Z Euro shows later today.

The 12 z does show something. Not sure if its this or another new storm. Just checked again on Tropical Tidbits.

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z Canadian does not show this system at all. Lets see what the 12Z Euro shows later today.

The 12 z does show something. Not sure if its this or another new storm. Just checked again on Tropical Tidbits.

It is showing plenty of phantom lows in the Atlantic but it doesn't show the Caribbean system or Pouch 39L that the 12Z Gfs shows.

[Alyono]

Canadian has it, but keeps it as a disturbance

[blp]

12z CMC

[centuryv58]

Canadian has it, but keeps it as a disturbance

That's what I thought. Thanks.

[xcool22]

do not putting much faith in gfs yet..


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[setexholmes]

What's that other feature in the gulf moving wnw on the 12z cmc?

[Alyono]

EC has a much better defined disturbance and it has shifted southward

[Fego]

[cycloneye]

Yes.

[blp]

EC has a much better defined disturbance and it has shifted southward

Yes indeed. It looks more likely this will make it into the Caribbean and avoid Hispaniola to the South.

[cycloneye]

Now we have different tracks from the two principal global models.The question is which track will be what in reality occurs,the low latitude runner by GFS or the more north one by ECMWF.

[sma10]

This is obviously fantasy at this point, but still of interest to see if it develops as modeled. I've been wracking my brain trying to come up with an analog track that the GFS is depicting.

The historical record is chock full of October Cuba-to-Florida connections, but these usually find their genesis down in the Western Caribbean. Can anyone point to me an early October track similar to this one?

I can give you a late August track...Charley formed in the Southern Antilles and tracked WNW to just west of Jamaica before making its move north over Cuba and to Punta Gorda.

Yes, my point exactly. It's been an extremely long time since we've seen a Cabo Verde system track into the Eastern Caribbean, cross the Caribbean, and then curve into Cuba/Florida in October. In fact, I can't remember even 1 instance

Usually this time of year I don't even bother looking at Africa any more because anything that develops in that area of the Atlantic post 9/25 or so, is almost always a sure-fire recurve before the islands. Very interesting track, if it is realized.

[blp]

Interesting how both the Euro and GFS develop a skinny Ridge over the Central Atlantic around 20N that keeps the system from heading OTS. That pattern will assure that it gets into the Caribbean.

[PTrackerLA]

Could be very similar system to Hurricane Lili 2002 if the track somewhat verifies, even the dates would only be a few days within each other.

[cajungal]

Could be very similar system to Hurricane Lili 2002 if the track somewhat verifies, even the dates would only be a few days within each other.

Timing is everything. Depends on where it is and if the front dives down to shunt it to Florida. If the ridge in the gulf is still there then it will go west. Most in October become Florida's issue. But I remember Lili very well.

[LarryWx]

This is obviously fantasy at this point, but still of interest to see if it develops as modeled. I've been wracking my brain trying to come up with an analog track that the GFS is depicting.

The historical record is chock full of October Cuba-to-Florida connections, but these usually find their genesis down in the Western Caribbean. Can anyone point to me an early October track similar to this one?

I can give you a late August track...Charley formed in the Southern Antilles and tracked WNW to just west of Jamaica before making its move north over Cuba and to Punta Gorda.

Yes, my point exactly. It's been an extremely long time since we've seen a Cabo Verde system track into the Eastern Caribbean, cross the Caribbean, and then curve into Cuba/Florida in October. In fact, I can't remember even 1 instance

Usually this time of year I don't even bother looking at Africa any more because anything that develops in that area of the Atlantic post 9/25 or so, is almost always a sure-fire recurve before the islands. Very interesting track, if it is realized.

About the only way something makes it all of the way across this late in Sep. is if it doesn't develop into a TC before 50W in most cases. The latest TC genesis of any storm E of 50W that made it all of the way to the Conus is 9/25.

[cycloneye]

Interesting conversation.

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