Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa (INVEST 99L is up)
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cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
We have consensus now from the main global models.
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
Low shear ahead of it. GFS should blow it up soon.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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USTropics
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
18z GFS at 102 hours now on board with the other models. Word to the wise, the 18z GFS runs seem to have a bias towards development in the MDR since the upgrade (not sure why). The past 8 runs have shown no development at this time frame so the 00z run should be very interesting.
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Kingarabian
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
There is some dry air in front of it. But nice moisture envelope.
Difference between the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS is that the Euro has development further north so I'm assuming the Euro has it affected by dry air more.
Difference between the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS is that the Euro has development further north so I'm assuming the Euro has it affected by dry air more.
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
Glad to see unanimous model agreement. It didn't make sense for this wave not to develop embedded within a large moisture envelope and smack under a strong CCKW.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
993mb at 144 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_25.png
Tutt to the northwest could help it but if it moves to much more westward into it I'd guess that wouldn't be good for it.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=342
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_25.png
Tutt to the northwest could help it but if it moves to much more westward into it I'd guess that wouldn't be good for it.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=342
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Hurricaneman
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Glad to see unanimous model agreement. It didn't make sense for this wave not to develop embedded within a large moisture envelope and smack under a strong CCKW.
It seems we have an agreement for at least a mid intensity tropical storm
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
Now it'll get interesting.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
Unanimous model support now from the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and CMC. Things might be getting interesting soon!
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cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
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Sciencerocks
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
Strengthens to 990mb at 156 hours as the tutt to the northwest creates a polar outflow channel
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 218&fh=156
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 218&fh=156
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Blown Away
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
I think we have our first real player for 2017...
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
Matches up well with the passage of the CCKW. Certainly the most model consensus we've seen in the Atlantic for some time.
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
Looks like a trough off the EC waiting for it.
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cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
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cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
Bermuda high building back, but so is shear.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
Kingarabian wrote:Looks like a trough off the EC waiting for it.
Both the 12z Euro and 12z GFS have the ridge building west towards the east coast. This run should be no different.
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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave to Emerge off Africa Tomorrow
RL3AO wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Looks like a trough off the EC waiting for it.
Both the 12z Euro and 12z GFS have the ridge building west towards the east coast. This run should be no different.
Yeah. That's that what we need to watch for - troughs picking up storms east but they get forced back west towards the CONUS.
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