Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

If this manages to develop, this could be the last chance where we can get the non-MH Nate here. But the chance looks decreasing since the gyre in the south gave this TW alot of trouble, and now it looks very poor.

[chaser1]

If this manages to develop, this could be the last chance where we can get the non-MH Nate here. But the chance looks decreasing since the gyre in the south gave this TW alot of trouble, and now it looks very poor.

In terms of development, suggesting that this wave looks very poor might even be overly gracious LOL. I'd put greater odds on Fidel Castro lighting up a cigar than this wave to develop during the next several days

[blp]

00z GFS is the strongest run yet with a Tropical Storm making landfall over S.Fla. in 66hrs.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

It looks like that this TW managed to survive the gyre. I could trust GFS if this could get organized quickly (particularly the southern part of this wave) exploiting very warm waters in this moment. If it manages to do so that would be incredible coup for GFS.

[northjaxpro]

It looks like that this TW managed to survive the gyre. I could trust GFS if this could get organized quickly (particularly the southern part of this wave) exploiting very warm waters in this moment. If it manages to do so that would be incredible coup for GFS.

Actually, it was the 0Z EURO back on 09/29/17
that first picked up the vorticity of this system. The GFS jumped on board afterward . Just go over the posts on this thread. Better yet, the very first post which started this thread for that matter.

I have had my eye on this TW for the past several days. As I have pointed out in previous posts on this thread, I always was in the camp that we could see potential development from this disturbance. It has been a very slow process with convection trying to get perculating. However, for the first time in days, it appears that convection is beginning to pop on the southern end of the wave axis down over the Central and Southeastern Bahamas early this morning.

Definitely have to monitor this for the short term, especially South Florida given that potential impacts could occur within 60 hours from now should this wave develop.

Also, it is time to update changing the title of this thread, especially since the wave axis is in the Bahamas currently, and with the potential development in just a couple of days.

[DESTRUCTION5]

00z GFS is the strongest run yet with a Tropical Storm making landfall over S.Fla. in 66hrs.

Surprised no one is mentioning this. It is the GFS I know but it's usually pretty dead on thru 60 hrs. 06z is developing what looks to be a 50mph TS making landfall in SFl and exiting around Sarasota.

[boca]

Probably because it hasn't formed yet and the title of this thread is wrong. I'm watching this for possible development.

[tolakram]

Luis is the one that usually keeps these threads up to date, I sure do miss him!

I believe this is the same wave, please correct me if I'm wrong.



1. A trough of low pressure is moving westward over southern Florida,
producing showers and gusty winds. Upper-level winds are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[boca]

Mark that's it and your doing a great job and we all miss Luis.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Luis is the one that usually keeps these threads up to date, I sure do miss him!

I believe this is the same wave, please correct me if I'm wrong.



1. A trough of low pressure is moving westward over southern Florida,
producing showers and gusty winds. Upper-level winds are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Not sure but GFS goes 0 to 60 real quick in 54 hrs.

[ronjon]

NHC doesn't have their spot marked correctly. It's the northern end of the wave axis over eastern Cuba that the GFS develops into a TS in 2 days. Located near 23N-76W now in the SE Bahamas.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[tgenius]

00z GFS is the strongest run yet with a Tropical Storm making landfall over S.Fla. in 66hrs.

[img]/img]

Surprised no one is mentioning this. It is the GFS I know but it's usually pretty dead on thru 60 hrs. 06z is developing what looks to be a 50mph TS making landfall in SFl and exiting around Sarasota.

I know its GFS, but I'm a bit skeptical considering its already 8AM on tuesday and that shows the storm at about 6PM on Thursday! Never say never but just doubtful in my eyes.

[boca]

On satellite it looks like just a plain tropical wave which is attached to a front and it doesn't have that curve that you look for in development

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Luis is the one that usually keeps these threads up to date, I sure do miss him!

I believe this is the same wave, please correct me if I'm wrong.



1. A trough of low pressure is moving westward over southern Florida,
producing showers and gusty winds. Upper-level winds are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

IMO NHC could well be surprised from this development of this TW. Emily 2017?

[NDG]

I guess the NHC is not believing the GFS not one bit about development with this area of disturbed wx.

[gatorcane]

There is nothing where the NHC put the X. Not following why the X is over SE Florida right now?

[USTropics]

There is nothing where the NHC put the X. Not following why the X is over SE Florida right now?

There is a trough axis just to the south and east. Models had shown some development in early runs associated with a weak system impacting EFL.

[TheStormExpert]

Totally not buying the phantom storm the GFS is showing just a few days from now. Seriously how can a model be so bad just a few days out?

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

The shear now is 30kt. This is clearly unfavorable, but if this wave survives the shear, COUP for the GFS.

[NDG]

South FL has 48 hrs to get ready for the GFS's forecasted phantom storm and its 6-10" it will drop over SE FL, lol.