Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22505
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
That 127 ACE last season was mostly due to the long-tracked Florence, which had 37 ACE. Michael was only about 11. There were 6-7 subtropical storm which were named. The El Nino never developed last season, but conditions are much different in the Tropical Pacific this season. All signs point to below-normal activity. However, analog years suggest SE U.S. and East Coast impacts (and ACE 40-50 units). MDR looks rather hostile. Gulf is favorable if something forms in the West Caribbean. I'll be seeing Klotzback at the National Tropical Weather Conference on April 3rd, though we've been discussing the season for the past month. Over the past 30 seasons, the average has been 14 NS, 7 H, and 3 MH.
7 likes
- crownweather
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 579
- Age: 49
- Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
- Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:Per Crownweather I guess for us in Florida this season we can forget it’s even going on no concerns. I agree with this season being hampered by El Niño but making calls on who is gonna be impacted 4-5 months from meat of season is not a good look. It’s anyones guess
I have to disagree with you there. I think it's a topic (areas that may be at higher risk for impact this year) that can be predicted. Giving the user of your product just numbers (I'm going with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes) & just saying all areas are at risk & it only takes 1 doesn't really say much. As we have all seen, a very quiet season in terms of numbers can yield some big impact storms. Alternatively, high number storm years have ended up being quiet impact wise.
So, in coming up with a potential impact threat forecast, which you can look at by visiting https://crownweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019forecast.png, I used a combination of analogs (went with 1953, 1961, 1969, 1976, 1984, 1990, 1997, 1999 and 2015) as well as looking at the UKMET, CFS, NMME, Euro and Canadian seasonal long range guidance. Based on that, there were a few things I noticed - first North Carolina was either threatened or impacted in almost all of those years; second - it seems like the central Gulf Coast is threatened or impacted during moderate to strong El Nino years and third - the analog data seemed to show a corridor of sorts from the Yucatan to the lower Texas coast where storms tracked.
Now, in my actual forecast (the text part), I didn't say Florida is "off the hook" - it never really is, especially south Florida. This is what I wrote -
South Carolina, Georgia, Florida & The Eastern & Northeastern US Gulf Coast: Even though the longer range model guidance seems to suggest otherwise, there are quite a few analog points that indicate the west coast of Florida may be at some threat this season. With that said, I’m not convinced its a significant threat as of yet.
All-in-all, my main areas of concern this season are for tropical systems forming outside of the deep tropics north of 20 North Latitude and also in the Gulf of Mexico with the 3 main areas of impact concern being coastal North Carolina, the lower Texas coast and the central US Gulf coast.
9 likes
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2312
- Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
- Location: Lumberton, Texas
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
I think yall are biting on El nino little to much
1 likes
- GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 44
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
stormlover2013 wrote:I think yall are biting on El nino little to much
The reality is that even in strong El Nino years, the threat of a high-impact hurricane event is always there. I'm not sure ENSO state is really that useful for determining actual hurricane threat level for any particular location. The skill of forecasting just isn't there.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
GeneratorPower wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:I think yall are biting on El nino little to much
The reality is that even in strong El Nino years, the threat of a high-impact hurricane event is always there. I'm not sure ENSO state is really that useful for determining actual hurricane threat level for any particular location. The skill of forecasting just isn't there.
If foecasters know ENSO will be in El Nino mode for the Atlantic hurricane season, it at least eliminates the possibility of a 2005/2017 type year. ENSO state is extremely important as it is a big chunk of their forecasts.
La Nina you can comfortably call for an active season.
Cool Neutral/Neutral ENSO years have equated to some monster years.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Kingarabian wrote:GeneratorPower wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:I think yall are biting on El nino little to much
The reality is that even in strong El Nino years, the threat of a high-impact hurricane event is always there. I'm not sure ENSO state is really that useful for determining actual hurricane threat level for any particular location. The skill of forecasting just isn't there.
If foecasters know ENSO will be in El Nino mode for the Atlantic hurricane season, it at least eliminates the possibility of a 2005/2017 type year. ENSO state is extremely important as it is a big chunk of their forecasts.
La Nina you can comfortably call for an active season.
Cool Neutral/Neutral ENSO years have equated to some monster years.
Well there was talk that if the SST profile in the Atlantic is favorable that it could allow for a near normal to slightly above normal season number-wise.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2312
- Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
- Location: Lumberton, Texas
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Kingarabian wrote:GeneratorPower wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:I think yall are biting on El nino little to much
The reality is that even in strong El Nino years, the threat of a high-impact hurricane event is always there. I'm not sure ENSO state is really that useful for determining actual hurricane threat level for any particular location. The skill of forecasting just isn't there.
If foecasters know ENSO will be in El Nino mode for the Atlantic hurricane season, it at least eliminates the possibility of a 2005/2017 type year. ENSO state is extremely important as it is a big chunk of their forecasts.
La Nina you can comfortably call for an active season.
Cool Neutral/Neutral ENSO years have equated to some monster years.
they thought we were going to get el nino last year
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
stormlover2013 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:GeneratorPower wrote:
The reality is that even in strong El Nino years, the threat of a high-impact hurricane event is always there. I'm not sure ENSO state is really that useful for determining actual hurricane threat level for any particular location. The skill of forecasting just isn't there.
If foecasters know ENSO will be in El Nino mode for the Atlantic hurricane season, it at least eliminates the possibility of a 2005/2017 type year. ENSO state is extremely important as it is a big chunk of their forecasts.
La Nina you can comfortably call for an active season.
Cool Neutral/Neutral ENSO years have equated to some monster years.
they thought we were going to get el nino last year
We are currently in a weak El Niño.
2 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22505
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Temps across the tropical Pacific are considerably warmer than they were last year at this time - both at the surface and sub-surface. El Nino looking very likely.
2 likes
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2656
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
We are currently in a weak El Niño.
Temps across the tropical Pacific are considerably warmer than they were last year at this time - both at the surface and sub-surface. El Nino looking very likely.
So do we have one or not?
Temps across the tropical Pacific are considerably warmer than they were last year at this time - both at the surface and sub-surface. El Nino looking very likely.
So do we have one or not?
1 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
AnnularCane wrote:We are currently in a weak El Niño.
Temps across the tropical Pacific are considerably warmer than they were last year at this time - both at the surface and sub-surface. El Nino looking very likely.
So do we have one or not?
We currently have one, and Wxman57 is talking about El Nino odds for this upcoming hurricane season.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7284
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
AnnularCane wrote:We are currently in a weak El Niño.
Temps across the tropical Pacific are considerably warmer than they were last year at this time - both at the surface and sub-surface. El Nino looking very likely.
So do we have one or not?
Well El Niño for now, what we’re watching is there is an area of cooler subsurface anomalies beneath the downwelling kelvin wave in the WPAC depending on whether trades or not bring that up later on in the year is the mystery or whether the relaxed trades continue and that doesn’t surface until sometime in late fall or winter
1 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
2019 ATL Season
On April 4,Phil Klotzbach of CSU will release the outlook as well TSR on the 5th so stay tuned.
3 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- ouragans
- Category 1
- Posts: 468
- Age: 52
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
- Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
- Contact:
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
crownweather wrote:SFLcane wrote:Per Crownweather I guess for us in Florida this season we can forget it’s even going on no concerns. I agree with this season being hampered by El Niño but making calls on who is gonna be impacted 4-5 months from meat of season is not a good look. It’s anyones guess
I have to disagree with you there. I think it's a topic (areas that may be at higher risk for impact this year) that can be predicted. Giving the user of your product just numbers (I'm going with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes) & just saying all areas are at risk & it only takes 1 doesn't really say much. As we have all seen, a very quiet season in terms of numbers can yield some big impact storms. Alternatively, high number storm years have ended up being quiet impact wise.
So, in coming up with a potential impact threat forecast, which you can look at by visiting https://crownweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019forecast.png, I used a combination of analogs (went with 1953, 1961, 1969, 1976, 1984, 1990, 1997, 1999 and 2015) as well as looking at the UKMET, CFS, NMME, Euro and Canadian seasonal long range guidance. Based on that, there were a few things I noticed - first North Carolina was either threatened or impacted in almost all of those years; second - it seems like the central Gulf Coast is threatened or impacted during moderate to strong El Nino years and third - the analog data seemed to show a corridor of sorts from the Yucatan to the lower Texas coast where storms tracked.
Now, in my actual forecast (the text part), I didn't say Florida is "off the hook" - it never really is, especially south Florida. This is what I wrote -
South Carolina, Georgia, Florida & The Eastern & Northeastern US Gulf Coast: Even though the longer range model guidance seems to suggest otherwise, there are quite a few analog points that indicate the west coast of Florida may be at some threat this season. With that said, I’m not convinced its a significant threat as of yet.
All-in-all, my main areas of concern this season are for tropical systems forming outside of the deep tropics north of 20 North Latitude and also in the Gulf of Mexico with the 3 main areas of impact concern being coastal North Carolina, the lower Texas coast and the central US Gulf coast.
Rob why was there no long term prediction in November, like you did in 2018?
0 likes
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
This just popped up on my dash:
https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... t/70007852
Edit: added image
https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... t/70007852
Edit: added image
0 likes
I am not a met. My interest and experiences come from the perspective of a hobby geologist, fisherwoman, and forager.
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7284
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
OiOya wrote:This just popped up on my dash:
https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... t/70007852
https://i.imgur.com/nBLjJbH.jpg
Edit: added image
The fact that they’re mentioning years like 1969 make me a little uneasy but if this year keeps the madoki look 1969 may be a good analog
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1706
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Between accuweather and crownweather it looks like we are not off the hook this year.
https://crownweather.com/wp-content/upl ... recast.png
https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... t/70007852
It will be interesting to see what JB has to say about his risk areas.
CSU abd TSR will be out in next couple of days with their numbers, I'm looking at below average numbers.
But, we all know that it really isn't a numbers game.
The most important factor is who is most at risk.
https://crownweather.com/wp-content/upl ... recast.png
https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... t/70007852
It will be interesting to see what JB has to say about his risk areas.
CSU abd TSR will be out in next couple of days with their numbers, I'm looking at below average numbers.
But, we all know that it really isn't a numbers game.
The most important factor is who is most at risk.
4 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Hurricaneman wrote:OiOya wrote:This just popped up on my dash:
https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne ... t/70007852
https://i.imgur.com/nBLjJbH.jpg
Edit: added image
The fact that they’re mentioning years like 1969 make me a little uneasy but if this year keeps the madoki look 1969 may be a good analog
Unless we go neutral this summer, everything will have to shift way west to create similar conditions
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
April 4 update from CSU goes with 13/5/2
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: cajungal, Cpv17, Dougiefresh, Emmett_Brown, floridasun, galvbay, Google [Bot], Hurricaneman, Hybridstorm_November2001, kenayers, LarryWx, StormWeather, wxman57 and 110 guests