Area in the Bahamas: Is Invest 98L

[NDG]

At least for the next few days I only see a disturbance interacting with a trough weak ULL as an UL ridge builds over the central GOM. It will be very slow to develop into anything. IMO.

Development, would be slow, but if 850 mb vorticity increases or maintains as this feature moves through the Florida Straits the next couple of days, then I give it decent chances to potentially develop, once it emerges into the SE GOM.

I meant to add that the reason why the Euro does not do much with this area is because it shows northerly shear from the building UL ridge over the central GOM over the next few days.

[northjaxpro]

On the other hand, GFS has been trying to develop it, thinking shear environment could stay at least marginally conducive by Friday. We shall see NDG.

[GCANE]

There is definitely a wave-type axis at 700mb and amplified at 500mb.

[Aric Dunn]

I suppose its time to more seriously talk about this area as its approaching florida. Chances of development has just gone up quite a bit.

as it has somewhat merged with a pieces of energy from the western carrib wave. it has some model support now quite a good deal actually.

[sunnyday]

What are the chances of development? My friend in S Fl said local Mets aren’t saying much.

[LarryWx]

I suppose its time to more seriously talk about this area as its approaching florida. Chances of development has just gone up quite a bit.

as it has somewhat merged with a pieces of energy from the western carrib wave. it has some model support now quite a good deal actually.

I guess you’re talking about what the 12Z Euro and EPS have. The Euro has weak TC genesis in the FL Straits at hour 48. Here is the 12Z EPS, which is much more active than prior runs and suggests threats to E NC, E New England, and the Canadian Maritimes as early as 8/26 and through about 9/1:

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[Aric Dunn]

[boca]

The Miami discussion is just calling this s trough not really a tropical wave and the key west discussion says that the tropical wave will move east than turn west. What would cause it to move east initially.

[boca]

The Mets are downplaying this area

[LarryWx]

The Miami discussion is just calling this s trough not really a tropical wave and the key west discussion says that the tropical wave will move east than turn west. What would cause it to move east initially.

I don't see the E movement. The models I've seen show it moving W to WNW underneath the Atlantic high to near SE FL as a wave and then the Euro slows it near S FL, has genesis, and then gradually turns it N and then NE.

[boca]

I guess since the area is not a invest people aren’t taking this seriously but I noticed a big blow up off the NE coast of Cuba and normally Gcane would be all over it.

[northjaxpro]

This system will impact Florida with more rain, especially begi ning Friday and for the upcoming weekend.

Larry, you are right in that the Atlantic Ridge later this week will extend across South Florida which should steer this system across The Florida Straits and extreme South Florida and enter into the SE GOM. It seems that a weakness will develop in the ridge and turn this system eventually north over peninsula Florida and later northeast.

The big question will be if we get at least marginally conducive conditions for potental TC development when it nears Florida this weekend.

[northjaxpro]

I guess since the area is not a invest people aren’t taking this seriously but I noticed a big blow up off the NE coast of Cuba and normally Gcane would be all over it.

I have been closely watching this area for the past couple of days. I have posted numreous times in this thread trying to remind people to not fall asleep with this system.

[DioBrando]

This system will impact Florida with more rain, especially begi ning Friday and for the upcoming weekenf.

Larry, you are right in that the Atlantic Ridge later this week will extend across South Florida which should steer this system across The Florida Straits and extreme South Florida and enter into the SE GOM. It seems that a weakness will debvelop in the ridge and turn this system eventually north over peninsula Florida and later northeast.

The big question will be if we get at least marginally conducive conditions for potental TC development when it nears Florida this weekend.

I've noticed that the GOM has low wind shear according to some maps I posted in other threads... and low dry air.... Now that's changed my mind!

[Aric Dunn]

18z gfs takes it west into the south central gulf.

[Hurricaneman]

18z gfs takes it west into the south central gulf.

Actually I believe that’s the Caribbean system, this system is near the Florida east coast

[Aric Dunn]

18z gfs takes it west into the south central gulf.

Actually I believe that’s the Caribbean system, this system is near the Florida east coast

no you can follow it. the carrib wave is already in western gulf by then.


nothing come from it.

[Hurricaneman]

18z gfs takes it west into the south central gulf.

Actually I believe that’s the Caribbean system, this system is near the Florida east coast

no you can follow it. the carrib wave is already in western gulf by then.


nothing come from it.

I see it now, I do believe that this is as far west this can go with that setup, expecting it to not quite make it that far west

[Hurricaneman]

It also seems to leave a piece east of Florida too like a spread out mess

[boca]

This area should be an invest it already has model support.