Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[gatorcane]

12Z EC 10 day position heading W to WNW:

[DioBrando]

The CMC and GFS ensembles also look bullish and with stronger ensembles for development of this wave. Most have this intensifying near the NE Lesser Antilles, some south some north. I expect NHC to mention this wave soon once we are within 5 days.

Am legit wondering if:

1) this eats up 94l and the merged system becomes humberto
2) this wave becomes humberto and 94l becomes imelda, similar to what happened with helene and isaac
3) humberto gets strogner when the cckw passes

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is along 15W S of 20N,
moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is in the vicinity of the wave axis from 08N-17N between 10W-
16W.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS coming in stronger, earlier. Has a TC by 96 hours.

[CyclonicFury]

I think NHC is going to mention this one soon, possibly as early as the 2AM outlook. This is the wave the models like now, not 94L.

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS coming in stronger, earlier. Has a TC by 96 hours.

Actually looks like 72hrs it starts to establish a circulation

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Develops into a pretty significant hurricane trekking westward beyond 10 days.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to try to plow this through the ridge at 258hrs, which goes against the laws of physics but the takeaway is that almost immediate development off of Africa is possible by mid week

Edit, resumes west course at 264

[Hurricaneman]

Develops into a pretty significant hurricane trekking westward beyond 10 days.

After day 10 plows through the ridge

Edit: turns back west which makes more sense

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Develops into a pretty significant hurricane trekking westward beyond 10 days.

After day 10 plows through the ridge

Edit: turns back west which makes more sense

Looks to me there's a weak upper level low that weakens that ridge a tad.

But yea, sufficient to say that this run isn't going to end well for anyone. Thankfully, it's well beyond 10 days out. The fact we're starting to inch closer to possible genesis is the takeaway here. If the GFS is right we could have a TD to track as soon as Thursday.

[Hurricaneman]

This run is trolling those hardest hit by Dorian, hope nothing like this happens but as they say in model watching the first 3 days of the range is possible, days 4/10 are a guide but no guarantee and day 10+ is like throwing darts at a board and where it lands is the outcome

[WeatherEmperor]

This run is trolling those hardest hit by Dorian, hope nothing like this happens but as they say in model watching the first 3 days of the range is possible, days 4/10 are a guide but no guarantee and day 10+ is like throwing darts at a board and where it lands is the outcome

I might get my s2k account banned for posting this but here is what it looks like




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[WeatherEmperor]

Hits south florida in the pure fantasy la la land




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[MetroMike]

Hits south florida in the pure fantasy la la land

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190908/2101e48ae576d8729e2b802dc82ea7b4.png


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Trying for a redux on Dorian? Seems uncanny. As usual will wait on consistency.

[Astromanía]

Lol in this season consistency come when it is like one day of making landfall, well maybe I'm exaggerating but models this season are bad bad bad

[AxaltaRacing24]

Lol in this season consistency come when it is like one day of making landfall, well maybe I'm exaggerating but models this season are bad bad bad

This seems like a throwback season (so far) in terms of the way models have handled track and development.

[Dylan]

6z GFS continues to go bananas with this wave. Definitely bears watching.

[jlauderdal]

6z GFS continues to go bananas with this wave. Definitely bears watching.

the bears are watching

[hurricaneCW]

GFS sending really strong signals with this one, Euro does too.

I get why models favor this over 94L, MJO more favorable with much less sinking air vs 94L. However still think 94 is a sleeper.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GEFS Ensembles are quite bullish in the long range with this one. They recurve it once it reaches The Bahamas, let’s hope they trend east!