Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 95L)

[Hurricaneman]

I’m going to say this but the Canadian May have the track down in the long run while the Euro with little to no development may have the best idea in terms of intensity, may become part of the CAG at or just beyond day 10

[cycloneye]

Hey gatorcane,good eye to see this sleeper.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized thunderstorm activity and strong gusty winds
to near gale force in the northern portion of the wave. Upper-level
winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development
to occur during the next few days while the system moves westward at
around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the disturbance approaches the
southern Lesser Antilles, upper-level winds are forecast to become
quite hostile for any significant development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

Good call Gator thankfully long term upper level wind forecast looks bleak for any significant development.

[gatorcane]

Thanks but to be fair, LarryWx spotted this sleeper wave and posted in the Global Models thread. I just decided to make a thread on it Interesting that the Euro does something with the northern axis of this wave in the Bahamas now though the GFS is now less impressed.

Approaching South Florida at 240 hours:

[LarryWx]

Thanks, Gator.
To my eyeballs, it looks less organized/more strung out than 24 hours ago even though it actually looked more organized at DMAX early this morning. I thought that the shear was then possibly reducing, but it now looks like shear is back in control. So, odds in my mind of genesis at the very least before the Lesser Antilles remain low (though not near zero) considering its present disorganized state, overall model consensus, and climo.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Upper-level
winds are not particularly conducive, and any development of this
system over the next few days should be slow to occur while it
moves westward at around 15 mph. By late Wednesday as the
disturbance approaches the southern Lesser Antilles, upper-level
winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any significant
development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

DMAX effect on sleeper makes it less sleepy just like it did 24 hours earlier. Look for this effect to intensify further through the next few hours until just after sunrise out there and then look for the convection to go back down. Here’s latest:

[cycloneye]

INVEST 95L is up