Strong Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

Not again here.

[supercane4867]

Heading for a recurve track after hitting the islands. Ridge opens up in the north.

[USTropics]

I'm fairly confident this is the wave the CFS was consistently forecasting to develop 2 weeks ago. It still shows intermittent development, but interaction with Hispaniola/Cuba puts a cap on things. Here were the runs from July 6th-8th:

[HurricaneFrances04]

Heading for a recurve track after hitting the islands. Ridge opens up in the north.

That track is a little too reminiscent of Maria

[gatorcane]

216 hours WNW:

[TheStormExpert]

Heading for a recurve track after hitting the islands. Ridge opens up in the north.

Doubt that’ll make it to the U.S. with a trough like that sitting along the NE U.S.

[gatorcane]

Curious that the GFS shows what looks to be the Euro’s hurricane at the 500mb level. This feature heads into Florida:

[SouthFLTropics]

At 216 hours it looks like there is more than enough weakness to recurve this away from the US. With that said, it is WAY TOO EARLY to trust any steering forecast that far out. Everyone from Honduras to the Canadian Maritimes are in play at this point.

[gatorcane]

240 hours:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still quite a ways out, but this is proof that we're about to enter the meat of hurricane season.

[Cataegis96]

Trough gets hung up over the East, while the Bermuda high builds west with the potential system of interest. Verbatim would be a definitive US direct impact there if the run continued. This wave will need watching, but many days ahead to track and for things to change if anything does indeed develop.

[AxaltaRacing24]

If this wave ends up developing, it will need to be watched as it could be the first "true" significant threat of the season.

[TheStormExpert]

240 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/wTbnhsz1/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-atl-11.png

Folks in the NW Bahamas definitely don’t want to see this after Dorian last year. Places over in The Abacos are starting to get back to somewhat normal.

[sma10]

It doesn’t look like a wave that is going to develop as a Cape Verde storm. The SAL has got the upper half of the wave. Without any support from the GFS and waning support from the CMC, best to lean with climo and say no development. Perhaps it may find some favorable conditions down the road in 8-10 days. Bears watching but just a few weeks too early out there:

Loop:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

Normally, I would be in this corner, as well. But on rare occasions (2005, for example) a season comes along that ignores the calendar and doesn't play by normal rules.

[Hammy]

Overnight EPS very active with wave emerging of the African coast. One to watch for sure.

https://iili.io/dzGSef.png

I remain skeptical. Still not one GFS ensemble develops, the CMC has backed off as well. Could be that the upgraded Euro develops more phantoms in the long-range (as we have seen in the EPAC) but the model still looks solid for tracking a storm once it develops as it is nailing Gonzalo. We know the SAL that is wreaking havoc on Gonzalo is still blanketing the MDR and is not going anywhere anytime soon.

I’m with you too gatorcane! Seeing that Gonzalo didn’t last more than a few days as an impressive entity due to all the SAL and mid-level dry air has me really skeptical of this developing as the Euro and the CMC are basically it. Not to mention I keep noticing the Euro is slowly delaying or pushing back development of this area. Things will likely ramp up some but not for a month or so.

GFS is a bad model to put any stock into, it didn't develop Gonzalo at all and even the last few years has only succeeded in catching storms in the MDR more than a day or so out a few times--in fact Dorian is really the only exception I remember. I am increasingly skeptical of anything further developing before the second week of August as the suppressive Kelvin wave (that likely contributed to Gonzalo falling apart) is finally being picked up by the other models.

[toad strangler]

That 12z Euro run If you believe 500mb this far out, which I do not, HP is building in from the East that might push this into either FL or the lower SE coast just as a trough is moving by to scoop it up. Too far out.

[TheStormExpert]

That 12z Euro run If you believe 500mb this far out, which I do not, HP is building in from the East that might push this into either FL or the lower SE coast just as a trough is moving by to scoop it up. Too far out.

I doubt Florida but more so the Carolinas or Northeast but like you said this is 10+ days away and will change. I’d much rather be the target 10 days out because odds are it won’t hit there.

[SFLcane]

Keep in mind Irma at one time was recurving into the open Atl. Plenty of time to watch this one

[TheStormExpert]

Keep in mind Irma at one time was recurving into the open Atl. Plenty of time to watch this one

I do remember that and it ended up getting into the extreme SE Gulf before finally making landfall on Marco Island.

[SFLcane]

12z EPS has still active with several members into FL also into GOM.