Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 97L)

[aspen]

If this tries to get into the Gulf like on the 12z CMC run, we will really have to worry. SSTs have risen even more, with some pockets reaching 32C — one in the central Gulf and one along the west coast of Florida. Assuming an otherwise favorable environment, this would be a perfect place for a storm to go nuclear. Good thing with have over a week to watch this wave.

[cycloneye]

A westward-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical
Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is
currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
However, upper-level winds are expected to become a little more
conducive for development by the middle of next week as the
disturbance approaches the central and southern Lesser Antilles
and moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[AnnularCane]

We've got a yellow squash.

[toad strangler]

A westward-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical
Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is
currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
However, upper-level winds are expected to become a little more
conducive for development by the middle of next week as the
disturbance approaches the central and southern Lesser Antilles
and moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/bHCwgk1.png

DING DING DING DING
Here wo go

[AJC3]

WOW 19 North .... See ya! Have a good voyage into the N Atlantic

Well this post didn't age well.

To be fair, you initially mistook the northern edge of the wave axis as the center of vorticity. Just chalk it up as a lesson learned, and apply it whenever you read the "Tropical Waves" section of TWDs in the future.

[northjaxpro]

These are the type of waves that have my attention, a MDR wave with a projected trek through the Caribbean, with improving upper level environmental conditions going into next week.

Things are really about to get.perculating out there as we are really just beginning to get into the meat of the tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin.. Think its been an already hyperactive yes, but buckle up folks, we have not seen anything yet of what I am anticipating......

[Hurricaneman]

There isn’t much with this right now but it’s starting to get convection and also will be running into a rising air motion on approach to the Caribbean so definitely something to keep an eye on

[Hurricane Mike]

I am a bit nervous about this one.

[CaribJam]

I am a bit nervous about this one.

Why?
What is your projection/expectation?

[toad strangler]

WOW 19 North .... See ya! Have a good voyage into the N Atlantic

Well this post didn't age well.

To be fair, you initially mistook the northern edge of the wave axis as the center of vorticity. Just chalk it up as a lesson learned, and apply it whenever you read the "Tropical Waves" section of TWDs in the future.

Yep, it was a amatuer mistake to think that 19 N meant the center of a well developed wave as if it was a depression.Wave AXIS properties now forever tattooed in the brain. Appreciate the pass!

[gatorcane]

This one is a bit of a head scratcher why NHC even mentioned - first really just about zero model support. Second the models move this wave into the Lesser Antilles early next week not mid next week. By mid-late week it should be near the Western Caribbean. Yes there conditions could be favorable but not so much before then. Perhaps around day 5.

[Hurricane Mike]

I am a bit nervous about this one.

Why?
What is your projection/expectation?

Conditions will probably be ripe in the Western Caribbean/Eastern Gulf in 5-7 days.

[sma10]

This one is a bit of a head scratcher why NHC even mentioned - first really just about zero model support. Second the models move this wave into the Lesser Antilles early next week not mid next week. By mid week it should be near the Western Caribbean. Yes there conditions could be favorable but not so much before then. Perhaps around day 5.

Possibly a combination of the good existing spin, the expected conducive conditions, and the positive ensemble signals. Meteorology over modelology

[gatorcane]

This one is a bit of a head scratcher why NHC even mentioned - first really just about zero model support. Second the models move this wave into the Lesser Antilles early next week not mid next week. By mid week it should be near the Western Caribbean. Yes there conditions could be favorable but not so much before then. Perhaps around day 5.

Possibly a combination of the good existing spin, the expected conducive conditions, and the positive ensemble signals. Meteorology over modelology

There are 3 Euro ensembles that show some weak lows within 5 days. Any other ensembles develop? I don’t see any. The spin is nothing special when I look at the 850mb vort charts. Convection is about average and nothing out of the ordinary. But their development chances are quite low at 10/20. So it is not like they are expecting it to develop.

[sma10]

This one is a bit of a head scratcher why NHC even mentioned - first really just about zero model support. Second the models move this wave into the Lesser Antilles early next week not mid next week. By mid week it should be near the Western Caribbean. Yes there conditions could be favorable but not so much before then. Perhaps around day 5.

Possibly a combination of the good existing spin, the expected conducive conditions, and the positive ensemble signals. Meteorology over modelology

There are 3 Euro ensembles that show some weak lows within 5 days. Any other ensembles develop? I don’t see any. The spin is nothing special when I look at the 850mb vort charts. Convection is about average and nothing out of the ordinary. But there development chances are quite low at 10/20. So it is not like they are expecting it to develop.

10/20 is quite normal for first mention

[MississippiWx]

This one is a bit of a head scratcher why NHC even mentioned - first really just about zero model support. Second the models move this wave into the Lesser Antilles early next week not mid next week. By mid-late week it should be near the Western Caribbean. Yes there conditions could be favorable but not so much before then. Perhaps around day 5.

The NHC doesn’t need to hug models to make a prediction. They see the overall change to more favorable conditions coming and they are highlighting a wave that already has pronounced spin. I think it’s a pretty good decision, especially since this is a wave that could develop and impact land in the next week.

[StPeteMike]

Is this the one that gets going in the Western Caribbean?

[AutoPenalti]

This one is a bit of a head scratcher why NHC even mentioned - first really just about zero model support. Second the models move this wave into the Lesser Antilles early next week not mid next week. By mid-late week it should be near the Western Caribbean. Yes there conditions could be favorable but not so much before then. Perhaps around day 5.

if NHC solely relied on models to forecast outlooks, we would be screwed.

[sma10]

Meanwhile ... the pre-peak lull continues

[gfsperpendicular]

Looks like it's popping a bit tonight. This wave reminds me of the one that became Hanna. They had that same large, broad sprawl that was convectively bare (pre-Hanna was roughly where Josephine is now, and this was midway between Africa and the islands). Hanna began to pop, then consolidated a few days later in the Eastern gulf. Maybe we'll see a similar time scale with this?