Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 99L)

[MarioProtVI]

10/30

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days as
it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

That’s quite bold to start right off with 10/30.

[CyclonicFury]

10/30

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days as
it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Wait, the wave that's lemon'd on the NHC 5 day is still at 20W... new lemon?

Yes this is a separate system from the wave that NHC already marked.

[sma10]

10/30

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days as
it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Wait, the wave that's lemon'd on the NHC 5 day is still at 20W... new lemon?

Yes, new lemon, that will likely ripen into an orange in short order

[MississippiWx]

This season just keeps on acting like 2005 (minus the early intense hurricanes). These sneaky waves flare up as they come west into a more favorable setup.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Canadian Ensembles are bullish on this wave possibly becoming a hurricane in the western Gulf by next weekend.

[Portastorm]

12z Canadian Ensembles are bullish on this wave possibly becoming a hurricane in the western Gulf by next weekend.

Well let's hope they have the same accuracy as the EPS ensembles did for Laura.

[TheProfessor]

12z Canadian Ensembles are bullish on this wave possibly becoming a hurricane in the western Gulf by next weekend.

Well let's hope they have the same accuracy as the EPS ensembles did for Laura.

Unfortunately the GEPS has been leading the charge this year and did well with hinting at possible development with Laura.

[GCANE]

Rossby Waves will be riding high next 180 hrs.
That's the time CMC starts putting this possibly in the GoM.
Don't see any TUTTS either during that time for them to interfere with.
Looks like SAL may be a bit heavy.
Will have to be in the "Protected Pouch" mode.

[Portastorm]

Rossby Waves will be riding high next 180 hrs.
That's the time CMC starts putting this possibly in the GoM.
Don't see any TUTTS either during that time for them to interfere with.
Looks like SAL may be a bit heavy.
Will have to be in the "Protected Pouch" mode.

The statement "Rossby Waves will be riding high next 180 hrs" ... I am assuming you are referring to latitude? So, this would not be a good thing for those of us hoping for no tropical cyclone genesis in the WGOM. Rossby Waves and tropical cyclones are like cats and dogs if I understand correctly.

[sma10]

Not looking too shabby this afternoon ... Invest by tomorrow?

[CyclonicFury]

Similar to Marco, there is some EPS support for this to develop when it approaches the central/western Caribbean.

[GCANE]

Rossby Waves will be riding high next 180 hrs.
That's the time CMC starts putting this possibly in the GoM.
Don't see any TUTTS either during that time for them to interfere with.
Looks like SAL may be a bit heavy.
Will have to be in the "Protected Pouch" mode.

The statement "Rossby Waves will be riding high next 180 hrs" ... I am assuming you are referring to latitude? So, this would not be a good thing for those of us hoping for no tropical cyclone genesis in the WGOM. Rossby Waves and tropical cyclones are like cats and dogs if I understand correctly.

Yes, latitude.
Its kinda mixed bags with Rossby Waves and TCs.
If a Rossby Wave has a Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break ahead of it, its an almost ideal UL setup for TC genesis / intensification, if the TC tracks directly into the ARWB.
Perfect example just occurred with Laura.
If there is no ARWB, the associated trof with the Rossby Wave would shred the TC if it got too close or it would quickly recurve the TC.
Also, if the timing of the TC is not perfect with the ARWB, then UL winds interfere with the TC. That example was Marco.

[Aric Dunn]

And here I thought a small break was coming ..

this wave appears to be organizing quite quickly today..

besides the far away SAl plume environment looks good.

Islands def need to watch this one.

ICON essentially has a TD in 24 hours.

[tomatkins]

I dont want to start anything...but the ICON has what appears to be a cat1/2 hurricane hitting Jamaica and moving WNW.......

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200827/f942fce87654e89bad0ee1f4258917f8.jpg


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Its hard to keep track. Is this the remnants of that monster wave that was coming off of Africa when Laura and Marco were getting their acts together?

[sma10]

And here I thought a small break was coming ..

this wave appears to be organizing quite quickly today..

besides the far away SAl plume environment looks good.

Islands def need to watch this one.

ICON essentially has a TD in 24 hours.

Are you OK?
Didn't see you much on the Laura thread.

yeah, once a storm becomes established I move to Discord. the threads become a mess.

Was wondering where you were ... saw this wave and thought Aric should be here soon
Figure an Invest by tomorrow morning?

This looks like it may be one of those solid straight lines thru the Caribbean into Yucatan

[aspen]

CMC and ICON both develop this within the next 5 days. The CMC has it stay weak due to interactions with the Greater Antilles, while the latest ICON run hasn’t fully loaded yet.

[EquusStorm]

This definitely looks impressive this evening. If indistinct waves suddenly exploding west of 45w becomes a trend, it's going to be a rough ride

[GCANE]

I commented on this last week that the African Easterly Jet diverges at 40W.
Still the case today.
Typically, it diverges at 50W.
That is usually where AEWs start to develop.
Now its east by 10 degrees.
Explains why this wave is starting to look good already and why CMC is showing the upcoming Anticyclone over it.

[Cpv17]

I wonder when can we expect an invest from this?

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1299121369821704193