Tropical Wave in the East-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 92L)

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: once again no Caribbean TC genesis through 144 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS doesn’t do much with it until it gets into the Gulf where after getting close to Louisiana decides to make a hard right and seems to follow the coastline as an intensifying hurricane

Landfall as Cat1/2 in Panama City

The ironic thing here is that the 288 hour position between the 06z and the 12z are almost identical, but they took two totally different routes to get there.

[toad strangler]

12z CMC looks much more climatologically correct than the 12z GFS
Pretty much same end result

[SouthFLTropics]

12z CMC

[Spacecoast]

12Z UKMET: once again no Caribbean TC genesis through 144 hours

12z GFS, and 06z NAV show development of 1st system. CMC still alone with developmnt of 2nd system (27%) in next 168 hrs...
FSU'S 12Z Genesis Probabilities 0-168 hours

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1311353776796774400

[cycloneye]

Mid-level-spin visible animation.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#

[FireRat]

12z CMC

https://i.imgur.com/heq5onS.gif

Wow, that looks like an echo of Michael, very similar track and would strike the same area 2 years later, exact to the day according to this model.

[toad strangler]

12z GEFS is pretty spread out for this system with the largest signal of tracks congregating around the N Gulf coast with a smaller group into the FL peninsula.

[SFLcane]

What will tonight bring lol I know I woke up to some wild stuff this morning.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... Our TW makes an appearance @144 hours and finishes with a weak 1010 low, but is more defined than previous runs...

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... (2) Florida landfalls, Panhandle as Cat 2 and loops back in East Central Florida as a TS...

[northjaxpro]

This vort I believe poses the greatest threat to Florida as we get into the week beginning Oct 4 (next week)

It already has a very vigorous mid-level signature. This system has my attèntion!

[TheStormExpert]

What will tonight bring lol I know I woke up to some wild stuff this morning.

https://i.postimg.cc/brNXG48k/20-A18-C75-1-A11-4-C52-8968-684-BE53-CA301.jpg

Fortunately the runs since have trended much weaker and up into the panhandle.

[ElectricStorm]

What will tonight bring lol I know I woke up to some wild stuff this morning.

https://i.postimg.cc/brNXG48k/20-A18-C75-1-A11-4-C52-8968-684-BE53-CA301.jpg

Fortunately the runs since have trended much weaker and up into the panhandle.

*Checks memory* *Finds early runs for Michael*

[Loveweather12]

Doesn’t mean that’s what it’s going to do. Theirs more to hurricane forecasting than models that have been acting all year long. Hello somebody!

What will tonight bring lol I know I woke up to some wild stuff this morning.

https://i.postimg.cc/brNXG48k/20-A18-C75-1-A11-4-C52-8968-684-BE53-CA301.jpg

Fortunately the runs since have trended much weaker and up into the panhandle.

[TheStormExpert]

What will tonight bring lol I know I woke up to some wild stuff this morning.

https://i.postimg.cc/brNXG48k/20-A18-C75-1-A11-4-C52-8968-684-BE53-CA301.jpg

Fortunately the runs since have trended much weaker and up into the panhandle.

*Checks memory* *Finds early runs for Michael*

18z has even trended weaker.

[edu2703]

I'm really not much to rely on models too far out. Especially when the future of this wave basically depends on the other wave and how it will interact with this wave (if it will).

There is a lot of variables at play. Expect several changes in the next runs. From non-development to a Cat 5, anything is possible for models to show at this point.

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/IoP30Xf.gif
12z GFS... (2) Florida landfalls, Panhandle as Cat 2 and loops back in East Central Florida as a TS...

Wait lol, it's revving for landfall #3 back toward the panhandle! Now THATS Tropical weather stuff

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward during the
next several days where environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for development over the central or western
Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.