2021 WPAC Season

[Hayabusa]

Current 2021 potential over the tropics triumphs

[aspen]

The Euro and CMC have begun to show this system, although it doesn’t get near the GFS’s Cat 5 intensity.

[dexterlabio]

Phantom model storm watching is so fun. LOL (not fun though if that actually happens - that's like adding too much salt and lemon to our covid injury here in PH)
I prefer a oceanic fish storm

So far the GFS still shows a recurve or fish scenario somewhat but quite too close to land for comfort

[euro6208]

EURO on board.

[euro6208]

GFS has been very consistent on developing the large area of convection south of Guam and strengthening it to a very powerful typhoon with a peak in the 910's, 920's.

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC and 12z Euro both much weaker than their 00z runs.

12z GFS starts development in about 5 days.

12z EPS continues to support development, much more than the deterministic Euro.

[euro6208]

The next chance for substantial rainfall gets its start on Thursday
the 8th of April. The GFS and the ECMWF both start to build up a
near-equatorial trough, possibly turning it into a monsoon trough.
Both models develop a circulation along it, with the ECMWF keeping it
weak and south, passing through Palau. The GFS strengthens it some
and takes it a little farther north. Until it actually forms, the
placement is anybody`s guess. Usually though, when the models harp on
something like this over several runs, it usually does form...
eventually. Sometimes they keep harping on it for a few weeks... then
it finally forms. So, we will have to keep an eye on it.

&&

With an active
Madden Julian Oscillation moving through western Micronesia the next
week or so, it is no surprise there is some ensemble support for
gradual development near the Republic of Palau early next week.
Plenty of time to iron things out, but a wetter pattern seems
reasonable later this weekend and early next week. Fairly benign
seas are expected with mainly background trade swell.

&&

[euro6208]

12z CMC and 12z Euro both much weaker than their 00z runs.

12z GFS starts development in about 5 days.

12z EPS continues to support development, much more than the deterministic Euro.

Quite interesting. Past 3 runs of GFS takes a rapidly strengthening typhoon towards Guam and the Northern Marianas.

[euro6208]

This WWB means business.

Long range GFS

18z



00z



06z

[Kingarabian]

The Euro and Canadian continue to not support a strong Typhoon solution that the GFS is insisting on. But they are in excellent agreement on the initial disturbance. Just massive differences in intensity at this time. But as we do know, it's always better to go over rather than under when it comes to the WPAC.

[Kingarabian]

908 mb on the 18z GFS:

[Iceresistance]

GFS is still going crazy with the next system, it would be named 'Surigae'

6z, April 6th


0z, April 6th (Lowest pressure is down to 925 MB, highest pressure at it's lowest in it's recent runs)

[euro6208]

Difference of 2 days...WPAC going bonkers...

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS, April 6th

Has the storm going OVER Guam, I really hope that is not the case . . .

[wxman57]

The GFS is most definitely the outlier as far as this potential development. It's most likely too strong with it and too far north. Other models agree on a much weaker system tracking toward the central Philippines next week. Seems more reasonable.

[aspen]

The GFS is most definitely the outlier as far as this potential development. It's most likely too strong with it and too far north. Other models agree on a much weaker system tracking toward the central Philippines next week. Seems more reasonable.

I’m guessing the poleward GFS track is due to it catching upper-level steering flows as it becomes stronger and vertically stacked. However, due to being such a low-rider, it will be within some exceptionally warm waters if it successfully consolidates, so there’s a very real chance of it going bonkers like the GFS insists.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS is most definitely the outlier as far as this potential development. It's most likely too strong with it and too far north. Other models agree on a much weaker system tracking toward the central Philippines next week. Seems more reasonable.

I’m guessing the poleward GFS track is due to it catching upper-level steering flows as it becomes stronger and vertically stacked. However, due to being such a low-rider, it will be within some exceptionally warm waters if it successfully consolidates, so there’s a very real chance of it going bonkers like the GFS insists.

Agreed. It looks like the main inhibitor is the depicted large nature of the disturbance. However OHC and atmosphere clearly favor the high end intensity estimates.

[Iceresistance]

April 6th, 18z GFS

May go sub-900 at this rate!

[Kingarabian]

April 6th, 18z GFS

May go sub-900 at this rate!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_wpac_fh96-384.gif

It probably is seeing that the high resolution GFS isn't accessible past 240 hours.

[aspen]

April 6th, 18z GFS

May go sub-900 at this rate!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_wpac_fh96-384.gif

18z bottomed out at 907 mbar, which is its strongest run so far and the first below 910 mbar. I haven’t seen the GFS this consistently aggressive since Hagibis and Kammuri, although only one lived up to the hype, and the other struggled its entire life. The GFS’s nuclear mode model solutions won’t get any more possible until the time frame closes in and other models also go berserk (the Euro went sub-900 for Hagibis, and Kammuri too).