2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I believe this is the strongest GFS run since those crazy sub-900 Irma runs in 2017. I can't remember the last time I saw the GFS go sub-890.
https://i.imgur.com/iMYL9vL.png

Who would've thought that a +234 hour GFS fantasy land run actually verifies .

A little bit too far east and a day or so late, but well, can't complain too much when it's 10ish days out.

[JW-_-]

GFS ref 18Z



EC ref 12Z

Models shemozzle atm arrr. Shem or N-hem.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF will be upgraded on May 11th.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1391851983879933959

[cycloneye]

Is here.

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FC ... Cycle+47r2

 https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1392019212600848384

[AutoPenalti]

So the Euro runs on 32-bit single point now?

Single precision’ forecasts have the advantage of being computationally less expensive than traditional ‘double precision’ forecasts. Such efficiency savings will greatly facilitate the introduction of higher-resolution ensemble forecasts and other model improvements in line with ECMWF’s Strategy to 2025.

Will be interesting to see how it handles conservation errors. There has to be some drawback to reverting to single precision floats...

[InfernoFlameCat]

GFS Model 06z shows a tc forming in the Caribbean in the fantasy range. Look at 24 hour precipitation accumulation to really see it.

[Cpv17]

Well, looks like gyre season might be beginning.

[Iceresistance]

This is odd, the 12z GFS is trying to spin out a tropical system next week in the Gulf of Mexico . . .

[BobHarlem]

As mentioned above, but


This wasn't on earlier runs, but it's something to watch.

[Hurricanehink]

Alberto 18 could be an analog for this system. Or, if the system stays weak until it approaches, then Invest 90L in May 2009, which moved ashore the Mississippi/Alabama border as a strong tropical low, could be a decent analog.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=71&t=105327 - here is the Storm2k thread for the May 2009 invest.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is showing consistency on the GoM system, it has been pushed back a few days . . .

[cycloneye]

To his house.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1392644120552742915

[Shell Mound]

As mentioned above, but
https://i.imgur.com/VcaO6W4.png

This wasn't on earlier runs, but it's something to watch.

I think 2021 will find one way or another to keep the pre-season streak going. Just watch the runs trend toward short-term TCG.

[Taffy]

This doesn’t surprise me. I feel bad for Louisiana if it comes to life.

[Iceresistance]

Louisiana is going to have Flashbacks to 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season because of this . . .

[crownweather]

Also noticed that the 18Z GFS spits out a second tropical system near the end of the run in the Bahamas & near Florida. Going to be interesting to see if there's (1) consistency & (2) other guidance that start showing this.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1392999697996914689

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1392999697996914689

That's certainly blunt and to the point.

[HurricaneEnzo]

If the GFS verifies looks like 2021 is picking up where 2020 left off WRT Louisiana landfalls

[cycloneye]

The strongest run yet by GFS.