gatorcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Just need some more support from ensembles
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Does any other reliable model besides the GFS show development? Looks like an outlier right now.
ICON has been spot on with this system.
Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea
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lsuhurricane
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
ICON has been spot on with this system.
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cycloneye
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Gets into the GOM.
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cajungal
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/PqfN8nl.png
Please keep it away from Louisiana
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Its been on and off on the GFS for the last 6-8 suites now, but we've seen literally nothing much on the other models other than the ICON. Until we see stronger model support I'm not expecting too much to come of this system, though it does need to be said this is exactly the type of system that does need to be watched now we are entering peak climo.
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skyline385
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
gatorcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Just need some more support from ensembles
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Does any other reliable model besides the GFS show development? Looks like an outlier right now.
ICON was the first one to show it and has been consistently showing it. There is some ensemble support but not a lot. Papin explained how it is forming off a cold wave surge in SA causing a CCKW in the Caribbean which is not modelled correctly so models could be under or overestimating it.
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
KWT wrote:Its been on and off on the GFS for the last 6-8 suites now, but we've seen literally nothing much on the other models other than the ICON. Until we see stronger model support I'm not expecting too much to come of this system, though it does need to be said this is exactly the type of system that does need to be watched now we are entering peak climo.
It has ensemble support from the Euro as well. It’s not just the GFS and ICON.
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skyline385
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
943mb and going
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
gatorcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Just need some more support from ensembles
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Does any other reliable model besides the GFS show development? Looks like an outlier right now.
I believe it is an outlier at this point, if you don't count HWRF and ICON. However, in this case, the GFS is showing development in about 36-48 hours, so we have an extremely short wait to see if others catch up or if GFS just drops it
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cycloneye
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
OMG But is already long range.
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
gatorcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Just need some more support from ensembles
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Does any other reliable model besides the GFS show development? Looks like an outlier right now.
It's the
GFS run, but who knows. It's more than we've seen all season.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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skyline385
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Not turning, looks it’s headed for the panhandle
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
I've heard two C storms mentioned in the last few minutes. Cleo and Charley, shown below for reference.
CLEO 1964
CHARLEY 2004
CLEO 1964
CHARLEY 2004
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tolakram
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Here's the flow out in front of the wave.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Caribbean-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Atlantic View
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
I find it hard to believe this will organize as fast as the GFS is indicating, but what do I know?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Caribbean-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Atlantic View
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
I find it hard to believe this will organize as fast as the GFS is indicating, but what do I know?
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Just imagine what would happen to the wx world if that GFS run verifies...just imagine how abruptly the "season cancel" comments will disappear lol 
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gatorcane
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
lsuhurricane wrote:gatorcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Just need some more support from ensembles
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Does any other reliable model besides the GFS show development? Looks like an outlier right now.
ICON has been spot on with this system.
The ICON is not a reliable model. For some reason the GFS has been too bullish on genesis this season. Maybe it is bad input into the model. Chances are there will be no genesis in the Eastern Caribbean like the GFS shows. It is a hostile area to begin with.
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skyline385
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
gatorcane wrote:lsuhurricane wrote:gatorcane wrote:
Does any other reliable model besides the GFS show development? Looks like an outlier right now.
ICON has been spot on with this system.
The ICON is not a reliable model. For some reason the GFS has been too bullish on genesis this season. Maybe it is bad input into the model. Chances are there will be no genesis in the Eastern Caribbean like the GFS shows. It is a hostile area to begin with.
It’s not a hostile area at all right now
https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1562110114395553792
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
SoupBone wrote:gatorcane wrote:skyline385 wrote:Just need some more support from ensembles
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Does any other reliable model besides the GFS show development? Looks like an outlier right now.
It's the
I think 12z may be becoming the new 18z Happy Hour. Is GFS day drinking again? Maybe on intensity, but, if this develops you have to give major props to ICON for showing this consistently.
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cycloneye
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
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skyline385
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cycloneye
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Re: Disturbed weather ESE of the Windward Islands
Pensacola.
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