2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/Aa4vFxX.png
https://i.imgur.com/W4XNdyY.png
https://i.imgur.com/70m5sdk.png
Despite showing a full blown Nino, the CFS forecast La Nina upper air pattern over the Atlantic in ASO.

Modoki El Nino?

Oh boy, let’s hope not. If we learned anything from 2004, it’s that a Modoki El Niño could be just as favorable if not more favorable than some of the La Niña years we have had

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/Aa4vFxX.png
https://i.imgur.com/W4XNdyY.png
https://i.imgur.com/70m5sdk.png
Despite showing a full blown Nino, the CFS forecast La Nina upper air pattern over the Atlantic in ASO.

Modoki El Nino?

Traditional Nino

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/Aa4vFxX.png
https://i.imgur.com/W4XNdyY.png
https://i.imgur.com/70m5sdk.png
Despite showing a full blown Nino, the CFS forecast La Nina upper air pattern over the Atlantic in ASO.

Modoki El Nino?

https://i.imgur.com/E1yUgGC.png
Traditional Nino

There seems to be a traditional El Nino in place, but if you look at the Atlantic, it also seems pretty warm too. That could be the reason why it shows favorable shear perhaps?

[Category5Kaiju]

So Yellow Evan shared this very intriguing statistic in the ENSO thread, and I figured it *might* be pertinent for this thread too:

"True Modokis are pretty rare with a cold tongue off South America. Only 1984, 2004, and 2019 really qualify. As for 1992, it technically happened in a cool neutral but the atmosphere that year was what you’d expect for an El Niño. 1935 was warm neutral. 1919 also had a 130 knot USA landfall and was El Niño. So did 1900."

The point here is, warm neutral and El Nino years do tend to suppress overall activity, but interestingly, some of the most infamous US landfalling storms have actually happened in warm neutral/El Nino years. And especially with Africa being wetter than normal in recent times and the sst profile looking pretty healthy with a warm Canary Current already, I can't say that I feel confident in discounting the possibility of one or two bad storms this year, even if 2023 ends up as an El Nino year and sees below average ACE and that sort of thing.

[NDG]

La Nina is still lagging behind.

[cycloneye]

Only 100 days left for the 2023 season to begin. The main driver to have an active season or not will be how ENSO will be by the summer and fall. Four names are new that replace Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point, my guess is that this season will be near to slightly below average in total ACE (especially if we get a warm neutral or El Nino state). However, I also think that this season could still bring 1-2 notable landfalling major hurricane(s), with the CONUS being my preliminary guess regarding where such might happen. It feels like ever since the Super Nino of 2015, something changed in the Atlantic basin that heightened the frequencies of these kinds of systems, and unless something dramatically changes, I believe 2023 may still bring big impacts even if it is a tame season by the numbers.

[zzzh]

Extension of the Tropical Weather Outlook and Graphical Tropical
Weather Outlook Issued by the National Hurricane Center and the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center Out to 7 Days on or around
May 15, 2023

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2023_24/scn23-28_extension_of_two_gtwo_7_days.pdf

 https://twitter.com/MassachusettsWx/status/1628853877142433795

[SFLcane]

Can you say.......Lag?

[Category5Kaiju]

Can you say.......Lag?

https://i.postimg.cc/3xr46NyS/shear2.png

https://i.postimg.cc/pV7FmR6y/shear.png

You should check the trimonthly shear anomalies and the monthly/trimonthly precipitation anomalies too on that same model. It interestingly predicts that the deep tropics and Caribbean will be hostile for activity, but areas north of that (especially Florida and the subtropics) seem more favorable for potential cyclone activity.

[SFLcane]

Can you say.......Lag?

https://i.postimg.cc/3xr46NyS/shear2.png

https://i.postimg.cc/pV7FmR6y/shear.png

You should check the trimonthly shear anomalies and the monthly/trimonthly precipitation anomalies too on that same model. It interestingly predicts that the deep tropics and Caribbean will be hostile for activity, but areas north of that (especially Florida and the subtropics) seem more favorable for potential cyclone activity.

We'll see how strong +ENSO gets this year. That's probably the biggest question mark at this point.

[cycloneye]

Can you say.......Lag?

https://i.postimg.cc/3xr46NyS/shear2.png

https://i.postimg.cc/pV7FmR6y/shear.png

That is interesting but as you said, ENSO will be the key.

[Foxfires]

Only 100 days left for the 2023 season to begin. The main driver to have an active season or not will be how ENSO will be by the summer and fall. Four names are new that replace Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate.

https://i.imgur.com/4FoJ54W.jpg

Not really related to the thread topic but I like how this is about Atlantic Hurricane names but the background seems to be Typhoon Maysak 2015.

[wxman57]

Looking like an El Nino is coming for summer/fall. Numbers could be similar to last year, meaning below the 30-yr average. Fine with me. A season like 1914 would be great. I'd say 1983, but Houston/Galveston was hit by the only major hurricane that year. When you take a look back, many major impacts have occurred during El Nino seasons.

I very much appreciate your insight into this wxman57! However, I was under the impression that ENSO state, especially this far out in advance and before the Spring Predictability Barrier, still has great uncertainties, right? Like how are we sure at this point in time that the expected warmup will indeed cross the +0.5 C trimonthly for Nino 3,4 rather than warming up to, say, something like +0.3 C and falling shy of Nino thresholds (as a warm neutral state instead)?

Let's see how the ECMWF did last February/March. Here is the ECMWF ensembles plot from last March (red lines). Actual is the blue dotted line. Just about a perfect forecast, I'd say. What spring predictability barrier?

[cycloneye]

Looking like an El Nino is coming for summer/fall. Numbers could be similar to last year, meaning below the 30-yr average. Fine with me. A season like 1914 would be great. I'd say 1983, but Houston/Galveston was hit by the only major hurricane that year. When you take a look back, many major impacts have occurred during El Nino seasons.

I very much appreciate your insight into this wxman57! However, I was under the impression that ENSO state, especially this far out in advance and before the Spring Predictability Barrier, still has great uncertainties, right? Like how are we sure at this point in time that the expected warmup will indeed cross the +0.5 C trimonthly for Nino 3,4 rather than warming up to, say, something like +0.3 C and falling shy of Nino thresholds (as a warm neutral state instead)?

Let's see how the ECMWF did last February/March. Here is the ECMWF ensembles plot from last March (red lines). Actual is the blue dotted line. Just about a perfect forecast, I'd say. What spring predictability barrier?

http://wxman57.com/images/Nino34.png

Repost the image as it didn't appear.

[tolakram]

I very much appreciate your insight into this wxman57! However, I was under the impression that ENSO state, especially this far out in advance and before the Spring Predictability Barrier, still has great uncertainties, right? Like how are we sure at this point in time that the expected warmup will indeed cross the +0.5 C trimonthly for Nino 3,4 rather than warming up to, say, something like +0.3 C and falling shy of Nino thresholds (as a warm neutral state instead)?

Let's see how the ECMWF did last February/March. Here is the ECMWF ensembles plot from last March (red lines). Actual is the blue dotted line. Just about a perfect forecast, I'd say. What spring predictability barrier?

http://wxman57.com/images/Nino34.png

Repost the image as it didn't appear.

Right click and open in a new tab or set your browser to allow unsecure image display. It's an HTML and SSL thing. I copied to imgur because it's worth looking at Perfect forecast.

[SFLcane]

Looking like an El Nino is coming for summer/fall. Numbers could be similar to last year, meaning below the 30-yr average. Fine with me. A season like 1914 would be great. I'd say 1983, but Houston/Galveston was hit by the only major hurricane that year. When you take a look back, many major impacts have occurred during El Nino seasons.

I very much appreciate your insight into this wxman57! However, I was under the impression that ENSO state, especially this far out in advance and before the Spring Predictability Barrier, still has great uncertainties, right? Like how are we sure at this point in time that the expected warmup will indeed cross the +0.5 C trimonthly for Nino 3,4 rather than warming up to, say, something like +0.3 C and falling shy of Nino thresholds (as a warm neutral state instead)?

Let's see how the ECMWF did last February/March. Here is the ECMWF ensembles plot from last March (red lines). Actual is the blue dotted line. Just about a perfect forecast, I'd say. What spring predictability barrier?

http://wxman57.com/images/Nino34.png

Big difference from last year is we're actually gonna get a WWB.

[cycloneye]

CFSv2 and CanSIPS have the Caribbean dry for ASO.

[Category5Kaiju]

CFSv2 and CanSIPS have the Caribbean dry for ASO.

https://i.imgur.com/CEohKb0.png

https://i.imgur.com/Assij4M.png

As expected, especially if this year were to be a +ENSO (possibly El Nino) year. Deep tropics look dry too (but again, unless it was a year like 2017 or 2021, that doesn't seem all that abnormal considering many recent years seem to have struggled with copious/robust deep tropical activity).

Now on the other hand, the subtropics and Florida look rather intriguing (especially on the CFS).

[CyclonicFury]

The March ECMWF seasonal is out (and it goes through JAS). It does show El Nino conditions, but basin-wide warmth in the Atlantic. This seems to be a trend in the climate models, if it verifies the basin-wide warmth could cancel out some of the El Nino effects. It shows above-normal pressures in the tropical Atlantic and below-normal precipitation, but nothing that would go as far to say "season cancel." Through the end of September, the ECMWF calls for 90% of normal ACE in the Atlantic, with 10.7 tropical storms and 5.1 hurricanes. In the past, this model significantly underestimated Atlantic activity, but it seems the bias may have been over-corrected, as last year it was way too high with Atlantic activity.

Nino 3.4 plume


SST anomaly


Precipitation anomaly


MSLP anomaly tercile


Atlantic ACE (90% of normal through September - sounds about right since El Nino seasons often end earlier).


Tropical storms (10.7 through the end of September)


Hurricanes (5.1 through the end of September)