Possible Development in the Central / SW Caribbean (Is Invest 97L)

[MarioProtVI]

12z Euro operational has it moving to CentralAmerica as it has the ridge strong.

https://i.imgur.com/YIJ6ftB.gif

Anytime the Euro has this you have to watch out. I think Eta 2020 started out this way and I’m concerned this may try to emulate this. Of course we could also just end up with a Lisa repeat as well.

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS

[blp]

12z Euro ENS further North and stronger. Trend is North today. A little more and it will be all offshore. Very few members bury into C. America.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro ENS further North and stronger. Trend is North today. A little more and it will be all offshore. Very few members bury into C. America.

https://i.ibb.co/VYG4GjY/ecens-2023-10-29-12-Z-240-27-518-269-39-9-635-297-867-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Yes blp.Trend at operational is also more north and a little bit stronger.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Development of something looks likely. Seems to me like a classic case of Euro-slow-to-catch-up, while the GFS is in happy hour.

Moderate TS/minimal hurricane in the Western Caribbean is my bet, with a landfall somewhere in Central America based on the steering currents.

[SFLcane]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS considerably moving up the time frame for TC genesis, now has a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean by Thursday morning.

[WalterWhite]

18z GFS considerably moving up the time frame for TC genesis, now has a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean by Thursday morning.

You know what they say about 18Z GFS...

[cycloneye]

18z GFS considerably moving up the time frame for TC genesis, now has a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean by Thursday morning.

Let's see if the 00z run repeats that.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS considerably moving up the time frame for TC genesis, now has a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean by Thursday morning.

You know what they say about 18Z GFS...

Yes they said the same thing about the 12z run lol. I think the gfs has the pegged just not sure about track or intensity yet.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS considerably moving up the time frame for TC genesis, now has a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean by Thursday morning.

Let's see if the 00z run repeats that.

Heading straight for nicaragua/honduras. Violent hurricane.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS considerably moving up the time frame for TC genesis, now has a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean by Thursday morning.

Let's see if the 00z run repeats that.

Heading straight for nicaragua/honduras. Violent hurricane.

Nope turns north.

[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS considerably moving up the time frame for TC genesis, now has a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean by Thursday morning.

That's because it seems to get its act together much quicker than the prior run.

[jlauderdal]

:eek:

Increasing threat to sw fl

[cycloneye]

18z GFS considerably moving up the time frame for TC genesis, now has a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean by Thursday morning.

Let's see if the 00z run repeats that.

Heading straight for nicaragua/honduras. Violent hurricane.

Lifted from coast of Honduras.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… MH making the N turn towards Cuba/SFL/Bahamas again…

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

What’s the water vapor like? Probably going to ingest a lot of continental dry air on approach…

[cycloneye]

If what GFS has comes to fructition, the ACE will reach hyperactive status. Is right now at 145,6 and the 1.59 units is the number to reach and surpass.

[REDHurricane]

18z GFS considerably moving up the time frame for TC genesis, now has a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean by Thursday morning.

That's because it seems to get its act together much quicker than the prior run.

Yep, it looks like whether or not this setup produces a major hurricane will depend almost entirely on the initial consolidation of the disturbance -- if it develops into a TD more quickly like the GFS is predicting, we'll see another late-season Caribbean major that turns north towards Cuba/Florida instead of making landfall with Central America and weakening; if it forms more slowly like the Euro has been showing (but trending away from), we'll probably just get a weak TS that gets steered into Central America before it has a chance to intensify into anything of significance.

My hunch for the past several days has been that a strong hurricane will likely emerge out of this pattern. We've got all the ingredients: anomalously warm/deep water, favorable wind shear environment, large pocket of moisture without dry air intrusion, and a pre-existing disturbance moving into the area. It's almost November and the vast majority of the Caribbean is sitting at or above 30ºC... if the "purpose" of tropical cyclones on Earth is to transport anomalous heat from the tropics poleward and the sea surface upward, then I'd say this would be a perfect opportunity for the atmosphere to do exactly that before the season is over. Of course this doesn't mean anything has to develop for certain, but at this moment all of the ingredients required to cook up a major hurricane appear to be in place, and nature is about to stick the dish in a fully preheated oven -- whatever happens after that is up to chance.