Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks more like tracks you’d see in October, not August.

October, more form into the Caribbean and then come N to threaten the Greater Antilles or the E half of the Gulf. I was born in NYC and grew up on Long Island, this is a classic track and a not untypical Cat 5 track into the Florida Gulf Coast.

https://i.imgur.com/jXk3Ds1.png
https://i.imgur.com/Cvcgfv2.png

Not used to seeing storms recurve in August. Will be a season with very few if any landfalls if that keeps up. Doubt it will though.

It's actually fairly common to see recurving Cape Verde systems in August. Examples include Edouard from 1996, Cindy from 1999, and Earl from 2010.

[LarryWx]

Looks more like tracks you’d see in October, not August.

October, more form into the Caribbean and then come N to threaten the Greater Antilles or the E half of the Gulf. I was born in NYC and grew up on Long Island, this is a classic track and a not untypical Cat 5 track into the Florida Gulf Coast.

https://i.imgur.com/jXk3Ds1.png
https://i.imgur.com/Cvcgfv2.png

Not used to seeing storms recurve in August. Will be a season with very few if any landfalls if that keeps up. Doubt it will though.

1. After last years’s horrendous season, I hope you’re right as that obviously would be a huge blessing for especially the very hard hit SE US.

2. However, storms often recurve safely out to sea in every month. Any storms that form well E of the Caribbean recurve safely from the Conus more often than not, even in August even though the chance of recurring isn’t as high in July/Aug as that for an E MDR storm in Sept and especially Oct. It’s the minority that don’t that can turn into disasters for us.

3. But it hasn’t even recurved yet. And even if it actually develops and then recurves, it would be only the first such case. Especially with the weak La Niña, I wouldn’t read much into that if it were to occur though I’d love that to keep happening. Phase 2 MJO is on the way and that’s been a more dangerous phase for the Conus since 1975 than any other single phase.

[Hurricaneman]

I feel like this will be the first hurricane of the year and maybe first major if everything goes well

[cycloneye]

18z GFS develops wave north of the Greater Antilles.

[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS as usual making a cold chill run through our spines.

[cycloneye]

Oh my.

[Jxdama]

Oh my.

https://i.imgur.com/PA8wvQa.png

[StormWeather]

Oh my.

https://i.imgur.com/PA8wvQa.png

East Coast major landfall: ✅

That’s not something you want to see.

[BobHarlem]

Frame before that Melbourne, FL landfall on the 18z gfs


Briefly gets into the Gulf, then goes over Tallahassee


Animation closeup:


Same system euro and most of its ensembles recurve, so more just recording it for the record, I don't think it'll happen.

Also just before the 18z does that, it shows another, smaller system goes through the gulf into Houston.

[ScottNAtlanta]

18z GFS develops wave north of the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/rSh3XiU.gif

60W seems to be the sweet spot where these waves really decide to take off.
Like I've said in past seasons...nothing good comes from a storm that is forced off to the west. Those are the ones you really have to worry about

[cycloneye]

Andy explains the difference between the two main models and ensembles.

@AndyHazelton
Some subtle but important differences between the GEFS and EPS suites with the 500-hPa pattern next weekend. Both have a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, but the GEFS is further west with it and allows it to retrograde under the East Coast ridge. EPS dips it down more towards the MDR and it picks up the wave (currently marked 40% by NHC). Very subtle difference but could become important if this wave does manage to develop.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1952143439711162372

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday. Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is
possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while
it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[galaxy401]

Looks like the Atlantic is waking up now that it's August.

[cycloneye]

I would give that 18z GFS run a pass because is the first one that shows that scenario, and also is well know for the "happy hour" theme. 00z will be important to see how it does.

[LarryWx]

After 5 runs in a row with TCG from this (3 in MDR and the last 2 N of the MDR), the new UKMET (0Z) completely dropped this as a TC.

Edit: The 12Z of 8/4 also failed to develop it (2 in a row for no TCG).

[Stratton23]

00z GFS at day 10 more SW than 18z run at day 10, still with a strong hurricane and a stronger ridge to its north

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh hell no, what are you doing GFS?!

Strong ridge to the north and a westward moving major hurricane aimed directly at the Bahamas.

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS doubling down on Melbourne on the 18z run -- reminder this is extremely unlikely and the wave isn't even off Africa yet.

[Keldeo1997]

GFS kills Melbourne and Orlando. Thankfully 270hs out

[chaser1]

Central Florida is now officially the safest place to be on Aug 15 Thank you GFS!