Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[SouthFLTropics]

The Euro AI is all in on an East Coast strike. It's either going to win really big or go home broke.

[Nimbus]

The African wave train is heating up, there is a third wave back in Sudan that looks even stronger.
The big islands could handle a weak tropical storm and that would likely create a less troublesome landfall for the CONUS.

Some day the invests may start over Africa but wave identification is important for the model initialization.

[TomballEd]

Op GFS doesn't look to threaten land but there are some ensemble members that threaten the NE Caribbean/G. Antilles and/then Florida and the SE.

12 days out I'd expect spread. One thing on the Euro AI, it had an incorrect prediction of a storm approaching NOLA after Florida, traveling over 31C water under a point anticyclone and it had it landfalling as a Cat 1. How many similar cases with a tropical cyclone predicted by the latest version of the Euro does it have as its base for correcting the operational Euro model?

[BobHarlem]

12z euro (operational, not the AI for once) with a S. Florida hit


Most obvious difference between this and the GFS is the handling of 96L ahead of it.

gulf entry the hooks up into the coast around St. Marks:

[jlauderdal]

12z euro (operational, not the AI for once) with a S. Florida hit
https://i.imgur.com/fmraLW6.png

Most obvious difference between this and the GFS is the handling of 96L ahead of it.

gulf entry the hooks up into the coast around St. Marks:
https://i.imgur.com/cLJeUDG.png

You sure that isn't a gfs run, we have been destroyed by the gfs for years in SE Florida.

[USTropics]

Op GFS doesn't look to threaten land but there are some ensemble members that threaten the NE Caribbean/G. Antilles and/then Florida and the SE.

12 days out I'd expect spread. One thing on the Euro AI, it had an incorrect prediction of a storm approaching NOLA after Florida, traveling over 31C water under a point anticyclone and it had it landfalling as a Cat 1. How many similar cases with a tropical cyclone predicted by the latest version of the Euro does it have as its base for correcting the operational Euro model?

I'm currently in the process of moving so only have mobile phone/data right now. Just want to point out here that the ECMWF AIFS model is entirely data driven (basically it's trained on high-resolution data from ERA5). It uses a graph neural network (GNN) as an encoder and decoder to assimilate current data and create a forecast. That's a fancy way of saying it looks for similar data and patterns based on historical context of the data it was trained on. It doesn't correct the operational ECMWF (which is a computational model that uses partial differential equations from initial data to provide a forecast).

For this particular scenario, it is concerning that the majority of the global models are consistently developing these next two waves. Eventual paths/trajectories are still to be determined, but August would be a more climatological time period for a system to get further westward based on analog years.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z JMA has this as a weak low near Barbados moving W to WNW at 192.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/1953500178750623944

 https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/1953515667186987351



Let's just say you don't want this in the western Atlantic

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs coming in a bit slower from the 12z (and euro), south of the 12z, but develops it around 43W on 8/14 . Gets to hurricane around 46W 17.3N on 8/15. And major late on 8/17 Just north of the VI. So it looks like the GFS may be going back west this run. (still coming in)

18z recurves 96l earlier too. But no twin hurricane like yesterday's happy hour.

[Nimbus]

GFS run the ridge is built in to the north similar as the euro but its definitely a major hurricane..

[BobHarlem]

8/7/2025 18z GFS gets a cat 4 to Myrtle Beach


18z Euro AI is Panama City Beach (comes into the Gulf over cuba) It also impacts the Caribbean islands.

GFS/Euro roughly agree through 10 days for once, just euro is slightly faster, but track/etc is very similar.

[Nimbus]

With that ridge there is no escape 18Z GFS does not like Savannah.
The gfs has been trending west with the landfalls and the Euro has the strong ridge as well, bad news.

[StormWeather]

8/7/2025 18z GFS gets a cat 4 to Myrtle Beach
https://i.imgur.com/KEAFFkz.png

18z Euro AI is Panama City Beach (comes into the Gulf over cuba) It also impacts the Caribbean islands.

GFS/Euro roughly agree through 10 days for once.

That system moves inland and moves over my county but just to the west of me. The hypothetical pressure in my area would be 994 mb with the main storm pressure at 990 mb and weakening. I hope it doesn’t go over me if it ever forms or gets that far at all.

[Jr0d]

I have noticed that we have had a secondary high this season that made a few appearances off North Carolina. If that builds in as this system approaches then it will block the recurve. I am guessing that is what the models are seeing...

The dominant high being east of Bermuda would suggest most storms going out to sea..but this little secondary high could appear at a bad time.

Too many variables to make any reasonable forecast of course. I still think the recurve track is more likely.

Regardless if this pans out or is another model bust, it's that time of the year we can't get too comfortable.

Just an amateur opinion so take it with a grain of salt.

[cycloneye]

The ifs.

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1953613048251298087

[cycloneye]

The wave train is about to leave the station.

[Cpv17]

The wave train is about to leave the station.

https://i.imgur.com/02oG7cJ.gif

Damn, that baby is yuge

[TomballEd]

Op GFS doesn't look to threaten land but there are some ensemble members that threaten the NE Caribbean/G. Antilles and/then Florida and the SE.

12 days out I'd expect spread. One thing on the Euro AI, it had an incorrect prediction of a storm approaching NOLA after Florida, traveling over 31C water under a point anticyclone and it had it landfalling as a Cat 1. How many similar cases with a tropical cyclone predicted by the latest version of the Euro does it have as its base for correcting the operational Euro model?

I'm currently in the process of moving so only have mobile phone/data right now. Just want to point out here that the ECMWF AIFS model is entirely data driven (basically it's trained on high-resolution data from ERA5). It uses a graph neural network (GNN) as an encoder and decoder to assimilate current data and create a forecast. That's a fancy way of saying it looks for similar data and patterns based on historical context of the data it was trained on. It doesn't correct the operational ECMWF (which is a computational model that uses partial differential equations from initial data to provide a forecast).

For this particular scenario, it is concerning that the majority of the global models are consistently developing these next two waves. Eventual paths/trajectories are still to be determined, but August would be a more climatological time period for a system to get further westward based on analog years.

Thank you, I had assumed a more modern version of the FSU Superensemble. I'm still not sure if it has been trained on enough past similar scenarios to correctly predict the current one. I'm not sure the point of any 2 week operational model, ensembles do show a definite, if uncretain threat, to the ECUSA

[lsuhurricane]

This GFS run interation will certainly turn some heads, but it’s far more grounded in climatology than prior runs to this point.

[SouthFLTropics]

Tonight’s 00z GFS is going for the costliest natural disaster in US history title. Major strike on Metro South Florida.