Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (10/60)

[AutoPenalti]

…and GFS drops development thanks to a ULL in the wake of Erin.


Looks like the MDR is back to being hostile as of this run.

[LAF92]

…and GFS drops development thanks to a ULL in the wake of Erin.


Looks like the MDR is back to being hostile as of this run.

This could be simiar to the 06z run where it stayed weak and disorganized until it reached south of the DR. Then it gets its act together

[Stratton23]

Autopenalti the GFS doesnt drop development lol

[AutoPenalti]

Autopenalti the GFS doesnt drop development lol

You’re right, it goes from 977mb at the 18z to 1006mb at 0z near the straits.

However it does try to develop again. So we’ll be interesting to see how the run continues.

I’m basing off of the ULL trending stronger in the wake of Erin.

[Stratton23]

Oh without a doupt its weaker, but still has development, lots of interesting parts to this, placement and strength of the ULL, does Erin depart quicker giving time for the sub tropical ridge to build in and force this into the gulf? Or does erin have a slower exit leading to a weakness off the se coast that could pull this out of the caribbean and potentially off the SE coast, should be an interesting week ahead of model watching

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET vs 12Z:

-AOI forms 30 hours later and then is barely N of the N Leewards (~300 miles to the SW of prior run at same time).

-Although Erin still recurves at 74W at same time as prior run had it, it after 120 hours exits much faster to the ENE. At hour 156, it’s already to 54W vs only to 65W on the prior run. So, then Erin on the 0Z is ~1,600 miles NE of the AOI vs ~1,000 miles NNW of the AOI on the 12Z at 168.

-Regardless, the AOI is moving NNW at 168 suggesting it’s likely recurving well E of the SE US:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 18.6N 61.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2025 132 18.6N 61.9W 1008 30
0000UTC 23.08.2025 144 19.3N 63.8W 1007 29
1200UTC 23.08.2025 156 20.1N 65.9W 1006 36
0000UTC 24.08.2025 168 22.3N 67.1W 1005 42

[AJC3]

2 AM TWO is out early...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the central tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of the week. Some
subsequent development could occur as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[wzrgirl1]

What’s the name of the potential F storm?

[ElectricStorm]

What’s the name of the potential F storm?

Next name is Fernand

[eastcoastFL]

00z ICON with a TS at hour 150 headed due west in the northern caribbean, just barely south of the islands , looks like ridging holds firm on this run

If it were to stay on that track, where would that put it in the Gulf? Or not?

Looks like W. Caribbean.

[caneseddy]

6z GFS sends it through the Caribbean and weak and then blows it up in the Gulf with final landfall in Lake Charles

[Cachondo23]

The future track of this storm, if it develops, will depend of Erin’s exit. Right now I think Erin will be a while in the North Atlantic.

[TomballEd]

Euro ensembles mostly out to see but about 10 or 15% landfall or come close the Florida.

[jlauderdal]

Euro ensembles mostly out to see but about 10 or 15% landfall or come close the Florida.

Trending towards Erin leaving behind a break in the ridge, statistically these long trackers dont stand much of a chance of making it all the way.

[ROCK]

Two camps..GFS / ICON landfall in US and EURO/ UKMET out to sea. There was a time, back in the old days, where the EURO was the go to model. I have learned it has been surpassed by the ICON. Especially the last few years.

[DunedinDave]

To me, it’s going to depend a lot on latitude. If this gets into the Caribbean south of PR, this is less likely to do an abrupt turn north and out to sea. The chances increase of a W to WNW track toward Cuba. From there it will depend on the influences in the Gulf and SE US to dictate its path.

[jlauderdal]

Two camps..GFS / ICON landfall in US and EURO/ UKMET out to sea. There was a time, back in the old days, where the EURO was the go to model. I have learned it has been surpassed by the ICON. Especially the last few years.

There is so much spread that it's ensembles and consensus models only...operational is for entertainment purposes. Let's see where this one ends up but we have seen solutions all over the board and plenty of spread under 7 days. This will also be a test of the Atlantic's ability to generate storms, or we are going to have one off Erin for the next month to analyze, some late season florida action and that's it.

[StPeteMike]

To me, it’s going to depend a lot on latitude. If this gets into the Caribbean south of PR, this is less likely to do an abrupt turn north and out to sea. The chances increase of a W to WNW track toward Cuba. From there it will depend on the influences in the Gulf and SE US to dictate its path.

Also seems to be dependent on what rotation gets going more and if one pushes the other further south (Caribbean Cruiser) or further north (higher chances of OTS or E Coast). Many of the models show the next few days multiple lows fighting for dominance, which isn’t good cause it means it will take longer to developing short term and will allow a more due west movement until it can get its act together closer to the islands.

[Kludge]

Just repeating the mantra to myself:

The safest place to be is the place where the GFS says a major hurricane is going to be 10+ days out. More often than not, it's just a phantom and/or won't go where it thinks it will that far out.

I fully agree with your theory. That's why the 6z GFS is my friend... and not so much for you.

[Stratton23]

I will say even if this goes slightly north of the islands like what the 12z ICON shows , its far from a guarantee that it would recurve like ERIN, the pattern gets murky because the bermuda high noses into florida unlike erin where the break in the ridge was around the bahamas, their is a trough on the models coming down thats another player, but that has had a lot of variability from run to run on the global models, this one is a bit murkier in terms of a recurve or not