More concern for Florida again...?

[ColinD]

IS there a non-zero chance for FL? No...never said that. I posted yesterday on another thread that I put it at about 5%.

Yes, you said it's NON-ZERO (5% is non-zero) Regardless, I think I know you enough from a few posts to know you would never say 0% on something like that.

From what I read, John is focused on that small non-zero chance because in the past there have been some memorable faulty forecasts whereas you are saying that statistically it is possible but just very unlikely.

Maybe I'm off the mark, but it seems to me that what you two are saying is not ALL that different. It's just that different assumptions about risk are being presumed. Just like I don't jump out of airplanes even though I know the odds of my parachute not opening are statistically not very likely.

[Air Force Met]

Actually...we are saying things a lot differently. He is discounting data...I am not.

[ColinD]

Actually...we are saying things a lot differently. He is discounting data...I am not.

He's discounting data but arguing from the position of a different paradigm, the fallibility and imperfection of science. Hey, I think more like you do on this but I understand where he is coming from.

You chose to tell someone they have a blindfold on which is a disrespectful way of making a point. In response, John felt insulted and decided to use all CAPS on ya

Understanding models is one thing. People another. Hell, you're still debating every sentence I write and I was the one trying to find a common understanding between you. Go ahead, I'm game.